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DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 8/17/20
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Pitchers
Kenta Maeda FD - P 8700 DK - SP 9600
Opponent - KC (Kris Bubic) Park - MIN
FD - 34.81 DK - 19.29
A common theme so far in the 2020 season has been a ton of ugly slates in terms of starting pitching and Monday fits that mold perfectly. The only real ace on the mound is Hyun Jin Ryu and he faces a surprising Orioles team that leads the pack in terms of hitting lefty pitching. I love the upside but for cash games, I will be rolling with Kenta Maeda who is having a solid start to his Twins career winning three of his four starts with a 2.66 ERA backed up by a tremendous 3.34 xFIP. For FanDuel, he has tallied a quality start in three straight and now faces a Royals team that has struck out 27% of the time over the last week and rank in the bottom half of the league in almost all hitting categories on the season. Fire up Maeda in all formats.
**Update - Matt Wisler has been named the Twins starter for Monday night. Stay tuned to the projections for our updated top pitchers for the night.**
Ross Stripling FD - P 8100 DK - RP 7900
Opponent - SEA (Justin Dunn) Park - LAD
FD - 36.19 DK - 19.42
While the consistency isn't quite on the same level as his ex-teammate Maeda, Stripling is still a very solid option tonight, especially at his price point. Despite some struggles early on with the fastball(four of five home runs given up off four-seamer), he has won three of his four starts and while the K rate is down he has recorded seven in two of his four starts. What stands out the most tonight is that Stripling gets a great shot at his fourth win as the Dodgers are huge -260 favorites against a Mariners team that ranks dead last in runs scored over the last 14 days and bottom 5 in wOBA(.289) and wRC+(86) on the season with a 24% K rate. Maeda has a slight edge in raw points projection but from a PTS/$ perspective, Stripling is the play in the system. Lock and load in all formats.
Catcher/First Base
Freddie Freeman FD - 1B 3900 DK - 1B 5300
Opponent - WSH (Anibal Sanchez) Park - ATL
FD - 14.31 DK - 10.75
Travis d'Arnaud FD - C 3300 DK - C 2500
Opponent - WSH (Anibal Sanchez) Park - ATL
FD - 11.83 DK - 8.97
The Braves were dealt a tough hand last week with Acuna going on the IL with a wrist injury and to stay alive in the race while he is out, these two will play have to play a huge role. The good news is that Freeman has stepped up with hits in three of four games without Acuna and has posted a .364/.417/.727 slash line over the last 10 days with four multi-hit efforts. The price tag is high but his teammate and catcher and help us out there, at least on DraftKings.
This is cleary a misprice on D'Arnaud tonight who sits in the mid $2K range on DraftKings after sitting in the $4K range for most of the season. With Acuna out, he has also jumped up to the two-spot in the order and has delivered hits in three of four games pushing his average up to .333 on the season and he is also riding a red-hot 148 wRC+.
To cap off the Braves plays, they get a plus matchup against a struggling(understatement) Anibal Sanchez who has given up four or more earned runs in all three starts and sits with a 9.69 ERA and not much better looking 6.18 xFIP. Both players are in play in all formats tonight.
Luke Voit FD - 1B 3400 DK - 1B 4500
Opponent - BOS (Martin Perez) Park - NYY
FD - 11.79 DK - 8.85
Despite losing the core of their lineup(Stanton, Judge, and now Lemahieu), the Yankees offense chugs on and entered Sunday winning four straight while scoring 36 runs(36!!) and are currently up 4-1 on Sunday Night Baseball. Voit is one of the players who has received more workload and has thrived with hits in six straight games averaging 13.1 FD/9.8 DK points per game. Voit is priced in the second tier and the Yankees have a plus matchup against Martin Perez putting him in the conversation as a top PTS/$ play at the position.
Second Base
Cavan Biggio FD - 2B 3400 DK - 2B/OF 5000
Opponent - BAL (Alex Cobb) Park - BAL
FD - 12.04 DK - 9.02
With Lemahieu down with a wrist injury and Altuve down in the lineup(and with the BA), the top tier at second base is pretty thin. If paying up, it is Cavan Biggio all day for me and I am not just a homer here. He is in a groove at the moment with hits in six of his last eight games with two doubles and three home runs while averaging 16.6 FD/12.4 DK points per game. The Jays get a plus matchup against Alex Cobb who may have a nice looking ERA92.75) but is running a very unsustainable .182 BABIP and has allowed hitters a 46.6% hard contact rate. We probably won't get there in cash but for GPP, with so many pay up spots at other positions, Biggio could come low owned tonight and has big-time upside.
Michael Chavis FD - 2B 2700 DK - 1B 3000
Opponent - NYY (Jordan Montgomery) Park - NYY
FD - 9.78 DK - 7.39
There are more than enough pay up options in great spots tonight so let's turn to some value in the middle infield. Chavis has been in a platoon role with Mitch Moreland recently adn has been raking against lefties with eight hits in 25 at-bats(.320 average) with a .397 wOBA and 157 wRC+. On Monday, he and the Red Sox face a struggling lefty in Jordan Montgomery who has given up eight earned runs in his last two starts and a home run in each game, all to righties. Chavis is in play for me in all formats allowing me to spend up for some Dodgers bats.
Shortstop
Dansby Swanson FD - SS 3100 DK - SS 4400
Opponent - WSH (Anibal Sanchez) Park - ATL
FD - 11.99 DK - 9.15
I get that the Braves lost Acuna which really hurts the offense but I talked about the matchup above putting the Braves as a top 3 team in terms of implied runs. That alone puts them on my radar and now we get multiple players that are underpriced based on their early performance. Swanson is another one that stands out as the 11th highest priced shortstop on DraftKings and comes in red-hot with hits in four straight and enters Monday night with 14 RBI and 17 runs scored. All things considered, he is my top shortstop from a PTS/$ perspective.
Nick Ahmed FD - SS 2300 DK - SS 3500
Opponent - OAK (Chris Bassitt) Park - ARI
FD - 8.25 DK - 6.3
You need to temper your expectations with Ahmed in terms of consistency but he can do a ton of damage and comes cheap on both sites making him another middle infielder that can help us pay up elsewhere. The good news is that he has been on a roll lately with 13 hits in his last 35 at-bats with a .371/.421/.514 slash line over the last 10 games. The only issue that arises is the spot in the order but at these prices, I am willing to accept that if it means multiple studs at other positions.
Third Base
Justin Turner FD - 3B 3100 DK - 3B 4800
Opponent - SEA (Justin Dunn) Park - LAD
FD - 13.47 DK - 10.18
The Dodgers lead all teams in implied runs(5.7 as of writing this) tonight and are my top target no matter the format. It starts with the fact their league-leading offense(1st in runs, 8th in wOBA, 6th in wRC+) meets a young pitcher who is struggling big time. Dunn sits with a 4.85 ERA but is has been much worse as the xFIP sits at an ugly 7.04 as he is running an extremely hot with a .205 BABIP against.
Turner got a day off on Sunday but comes in red-hot with a 10-game hitting streak pushing his average up to .280 on the season and better yet is his .355 wOBA and 130 wRC+(park-adjusted). He hits third in this high-powered offense and as the 8th and 11th most expensive player at the 3B position on DraftKings and FanDuel, he is most definitely a core play in all formats tonight.
Willi Castro FD - 3B 2300 DK - 3B/SS 3400
Opponent - CHW (Gio Gonzalez) Park - CHW
FD - 9.19 DK - 7.17
This article has sure taken on a stars and scrubs feel and that is honestly how I will be building tonight. The Tigers have been a team I turn to on the regular it seems lately as they are cheap and have actually performed above expectations, especially against lefties. Castro is a player who is getting some opportunity hitting second in the lineup over the last two days and if back there again today, he is a punt play I am most definitely interested in against Gio Gonzalez.
Outfield
Mookie Betts FD - OF 4300 DK - OF 5900
Opponent - SEA (Justin Dunn) Park - LAD
FD - 15.73 DK - 11.88
AJ Pollock FD - OF 2900 DK - OF 3800
Opponent - SEA (Justin Dunn) Park - LAD
FD - 11.22 DK - 8.52
I talked all about the Dodgers plus matchup above with Turner and in the outfield, we have two more core plays each at a different price point. Let's start with Betts who got off to a bit of a slow start with his new team going three for his first 21 at-bats but has been going off since posting a .361/.426/.852 slash line over his last 17 games going into Sunday and is currently 2 for 5 with an RBI and two more runs scored in the series finale against the Angels.
While Mookie might have to be reserved for GPP only with his enormous price tag, Pollock comes much cheaper and also fits the cash game mold. He has been extremely flexible and hit in almost every spot in the order and would obviously get a boost if back in the leadoff spot but either way, is a great play due to his consistency posting a .292/.352/.600 slash line to open the season.
Kole Calhoun FD - OF 3000 DK - OF 4300
Opponent - OAK (Chris Bassitt) Park - ARI
FD - 10.52 DK - 7.92
Opportunity is the name of the game when looking for value and Calhoun fits that mold as the Diamondbacks leadoff hitter over the last five days. He has rewarded the manager handsomely with hits in four of those five games including three multi-hit efforts. On top of that, he provides some nice power upside and is red-hot in that department with four long balls in his last six games. The matchup isn't at the top of my list but Bassitt's stats, especially the ERA(2.42), look much better than they are with a 4.62 xFIP and run hot .230 BABIP. At these prices, Calhoun is in play in all formats.
