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FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Thursday 8/13/20
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Instead of going position by position, I think it will be more useful to take things game by game to highlight where we might find a semblance of safety during one of the crazier stretches of NBA DFS I can imagine. Let's get to it.
Milwaukee Bucks at the Memphis Grizzlies
For starters, if you're playing any Bucks here you're doing so because you're trying to catch some random lightning in a bottle. Giannis started and played ten minutes last game, and he's suspended for this one for headbutting Moritz Wagner. Sterling Brown led the team with 29 minutes. Maybe you have a direct line to Coach Bud and you know who is playing in this one. If so, play those guys. I'll be avoiding the Bucks like the plague.
The Grizzlies, however, are extremely interesting. With their whole season on the line, you can bet that Rookie of the Year favorite Ja Morant will be out there for 40 minutes again. Dillon Brooks has been the other Grizzly that has been indispensable to their plans, playing 33 and 35 minutes in the last two games. The rest of the Grizz? They seem to come and go. You could see Jonas Valanciunas topping 30 minutes, but it hasn't been a guarantee, and could largely depend on how the Bucks treat the match-up. Anthony Tolliver has been playing minutes, but does next to nothing out there, and doesn't look like a cash game option.
The Dallas Mavericks at the Phoenix Suns
Tread carefully with this one, at least on the Mavericks' side. The Mavs had a chance to fade the Clippers in round one, but after their loss to the Trail Blazers that's off the table now. That officially renders this game meaningless, and what Carlisle does with this game is anybody's guess. We should have news on this before lock since the Mavs/Suns game is the first on the slate, but I can't venture a guess as to who the good Mavs are until we see the starting lineup.
The Suns, however, are looking juicy. We rode them to the top of the leaderboard on Tuesday, and I expect that we'll do the same tonight. We might have company, though, since they are officially the best story of the bubble by now. Devin Booker is too cheap for his current production, topping 49 fantasy points in each of his last three games. He played fully 40 minutes against the Sixers, and you can bet he'll be out there for the duration as the Suns do their best to complete their bubble sweep.
I'm honestly comfortable rolling with any of the Suns' starters here, with Mikal Bridges being the second priority after Booker. Either way, though, you simply can't go wrong targeting one of the few teams that is obviously playing for something and playing their starters a full run of minutes.
San Antonio Spurs at the Utah Jazz
Another game with interesting implications. The Spurs are in a strange spot here. As of this writing they are not mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, but if their Memphis or Phoenix wins their 4:00 game the Spurs will be eliminated from contention. One has to think they are going to make their mind up about what to do for this game based on that information. If they are playing for something you'll have some phenomenal plays. If not, the Spurs could be unplayable. I don't think I'll roll the dice with them in cash games.
The Jazz have tipped their hand as to their plans in this game, ruling out Conley and Gobert well in advance. While this will free up some room for likely DFS duds like Miye Oni, I'd enthusiastically play Emmanuel Mudiay to help pay up for the bigger names with something to play for. I'd also be interested in Jordan Clarkson or Tony Bradley if they started, but those are more speculative plays if they are coming off the bench.
Portland Trail Blazers at the Brooklyn Nets
The Trail Blazers are one of our big two teams on the day, with a number of excellent options against the G-League Nets. Damian Lillard could push %100 ownership in this game, as he's more than justified his ~$10,000 salary over the last two games. He's playing every minute possible, and shot 32 times last game en route to 79 fantasy points. With CJ McCollum playing through a lower back fracture, it's opened up room for Carmelo Anthony to take on a bigger role in the offense. Melo made 10 of his 17 shots last game, and put together 43.6 FanDuel points in the process. He's also topped 7 rebounds in each of his last three games as well. It's really hard to imagine fading him at a $5,400 price tag on FanDuel.
After a great start in the bubble, Jusuf Nurkic has fallen off in his last two games, but this is a phenomenal spot against the Nets, who have been the worst team against opposing centers for years. Gary Trent might be a decent option off the bench as well.
The Nets are a whole different story. They provided some interesting DFS options with their starters sitting, but with Levert, Harris, and Allen returning on Thursday I can't imagine recommending any of these as DFS plays unless we get specific news that these guys will play either a lot of minutes or very few minutes.
New Orleans Pelicans at the Orlando Magic
The Pelicans have waved the white flag, and have already announced that Holiday, Williamson, and Ingram will be sitting for this game. Sitting the starters didn't turn into a lot of obvious DFS value in their last game, with the big stories being Jahlil Okafor and Frank Jackson off the bench. I'd guess Lonzo Ball and Josh Hart could be options with a reasonable floor, but nothing to get excited about.
The Magic are their own brand of nuts right now, with Wes Iwundu leading the team in minutes in their last game. Seems like a hard pass all around, unless they wind up sitting everyone and we happen to know it before a 4 PM lineup lock. Seems unlikely at this point.
