DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 8/13/20

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Pitchers

Yu Darvish FD - P 9600 DK - SP 10400
Opponent - MIL (Brett Anderson) Park - CHC
FD - 36.91 DK - 20.11

Buckle up for the weirdest slate of the season with six games, all starting at the same time. Luckily, we do get some decent pitching options and it starts with Yu Darvish who is having a fantastic start to the season as he has allowed just four earned runs over his first three starts(2.12 ERA) and just one over his last two starts. On top of that, he is rolling with a 16:2 K to BB ratio and faces a  team in the Brewers who are near the bottom of the league in offense to start the year and have an ugly 28% K rate. Darvish is easily my top pitcher on this weird all-day slate.

Jake Arrieta FD - P 8300 DK - SP 7300
Opponent - BAL (Thomas Eshelman) Park - PHI
FD - 31.13 DK - 15.62

From a PTS/$ perspective, it is impossible to ignore Arrieta tonight who, in my opinion, is greatly underpriced for this slate. He and the Phillies are the biggest favorites(-191) on the slate and while the game is in one of the best hitters parks, Arrieta is a groundball machine and also doesn't hand out free passes(2.4% BB rate). That alone puts him in cash consideration and he has also shown a little upside with a 24% K rate but I wouldn't bank on him breaking the slate. Either way, he is my top PTS/$ option tonight, especially on DraftKings as the SP2.

Catcher/First Base

Willson Contreras FD - C 3200 DK - C 4400
Opponent - MIL (Brett Anderson) Park - CHC
FD - 12.16 DK - 9.17

Despite it being a small slate, we have two elite hitting catchers in great spots tonight but with the risk of Realmuto sitting(day game after night game) plus the discount, I side with Contreras tonight. The Cubs are one of my favorite teams to stack today and checks all the boxes as he hits cleanup on a Top 5 offense and has been very successful vs. southpaws posting a .381 wOBA, 137 wRC+, and .267 ISO in the split since the start of last season. He is one of the top bats on the slate and in play in all formats.

Joey Votto FD - 1B 3200 DK - 1B 4400
Opponent - PIT (Trevor Williams) Park - CIN
FD - 12.4 DK - 9.34

Votto is definitely on the wrong side of prime but the position is tough tonight and while I love Rizzo I don't want to shove every Cubs player down your throat. For cash games, I will likely just take the saving and roll with Hoskins again despite the struggles. I think the chalk falls on the Cubs and Phillies which does make the Reds a very intriguing pivot and the reason why I like Votto, especially on FanDuel.

Second Base

Mike Brosseau FD - 2B 2600 DK - 1B/2B 3400
Opponent - BOS (Kyle Hart) Park - BOS
FD - 10.4 DK - 7.97

While we talk about first being an ugly position, second base speaks up and says "hold my beer". That usually means find the cheapest player in the best matchup and spot in the order. Well, great news as Brosseau is cheap on both on sites and has been hitting near the top of the order against left-handed pitching. He has also made the most of his opportunity with nine hits in 24 plate appearances(.375 avg) with three doubles and three home runs and has posted a .397 wOBA and 156 wRC+ against lefties since the start of last season. He is in play in all formats as one of the top PTS/$ plays at any position.

If you are not hopping on the chalk train with Brosseau tonight, there are a few pivots including fellow value play Scott Kingery who is min price on FanDuel with the Phillies in a great spot vs the O's. If Brosseau's teammate Brandon Lowe also makes it in the lineup, he has been terrific to start the season(.276/.354/.586 slash line) and also hits lefties well.

Shortstop

Javier Báez FD - SS 3600 DK - SS 4600
Opponent - MIL (Brett Anderson) Park - CHC
FD - 14.68 DK - 11.2

Going with Fernando Tatis Jr, who has been on another planet to start the season, pretty much takes Darvish out of the equation and adds a ton of risk because of the rest of your lineup. For that reason, Javier Baez easily becomes our top option at the position tonight and he comes in hot with hits in four straight and seven of his last eight games. Like Contreras, he has also crushed lefties with an insane .400 wOBA, 149 wRC+, and .322 ISO since the start of last season in the split. Baez is a core play for me in all formats.

Willy Adames FD - SS 2700 DK - SS 3000
Opponent - BOS (Kyle Hart) Park - BOS
FD - 9.4 DK - 7.2

The middle infield is a great spot for value and the Tampa Bay Rays provide us with multiple options today. I am not nearly as high on Adames as I am on Brosseau mostly because Adames hits down in the order but he has been solid(for the price) with a .252 average, .352 OBP, and 110 wRC+ and has five hits including three doubles vs. lefties this season in limited at-bats(20). You can do worse for a punt play if you are loading up at other positions tonight. I will have exposure in all formats.

Third Base

Yandy Díaz FD - 3B 2600 DK - 3B 3100
Opponent - BOS (Kyle Hart) Park - BOS
FD - 11.93 DK - 9.14

The Rays value just keeps coming at us tonight and I am welcoming it with open arms as I want as much exposure to the expensive Cubs as possible. After going 5 for 9 over the last two games he has now pushed his average up to .258 on the season and he has reach base safely now in every game(18) this season. He has yet to hit a home run this season but the upside is there as he hit 14 last year in 79 games. At these prices, he is in the conversation as a top cash game play on this slate especially if he is back near the top of the order.

After Diaz, it is players from the same teams mentioned throughout but none really stand out as must-haves in cash games. Kris Bryant has been mostly disappointing to start the season but hits lefties well and hits leadoff as the Cubs are a projected top offense. Jean Segura and Eugenio Suarez are also in good spots tonight but have both struggled mightily to start the season. I will have exposure to all three of these but in GPP only.

Outfield

Bryce Harper FD - OF 4300 DK - OF 5400
Opponent - BAL (Thomas Eshelman) Park - PHI
FD - 15.95 DK - 11.79

We have gone through a ton of value throughout the article which should make it no issue to load up on the Cubs or Phillies or get pieces of both. We can't talk Phillies without mentioning Bryce Harper who is red-hot with hits in four straight and seven of his last eight games including four multi-hit efforts, two home runs, and five RBI. On the season, he sits with an all-world .324/.479/.676 slash line and his wOBA(.483) and wRC+(.212) are both Top 3 overall. You know what to do.

Ian Happ FD - OF 3000 DK - OF 3300
Opponent - MIL (Brett Anderson) Park - CHC
FD - 9.2 DK - 6.91

One more Cub before we wrap things up for this slate and it is Ian Happ in the outfield. It is a bit surprising to see his price this low on DraftKings especially even though he hits down the order as he has been rock solid so far hitting over .300 and getting on base over 43% of the time. He can play all three outfield positions and first base which gets him in the lineup on the regular and likely helped him become a consistent bat which adds a ton of depth to the already stacked lineup. He is in play in all formats on both sites.

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