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Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 31.63 DK - 32.15
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 36.98 DK - 38.21
I list Rubio and Morant together here because I like them differently depending on what site you're playing. Rubio is the cheaper option on FanDuel, of course, and Morant is probably just a better DFS player overall, so you'll take him at a similar price on DraftKings. Both looked excellent on a points per dollar basis in their first game back from the league being suspended, with Morant finding almost 45 fantasy points after the Portland game went to overtime. But both guys are just flat out value plays. Rubio averaged 34 fantasy points this season, and stands to get more run than usual in this 8 game sprint. Morant has hopped right back into his full rotation, playing an excellent 35 minutes in regulation en route to an eventual double double. Both guys have high floors, but I'll be price shopping depending on the site.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 44.07 DK - 44.26
Orlando was a tough DFS match-up this season, playing a bottom 5 pace with a top 10 defensive efficiency this season, so we're not running Fox for the match-up here. It's just a straight up value play. In the San Antonio game Fox looked like he had been spending the last 4 months dreaming of scoring 100 points in an NBA game, as he lofted a career high 33 shots. That's 9 more shots than he's ever taken into a single game. I'll assume there will be some regression there, but if he is taking on any kind of expanded role he'll be a value until the sites correct for it.
Also considered: Lillard and Westbrook as big money options. Westbrook has a fast paced game with the Bucks, and Lillard is still shouldering plenty of the Trail Blazers' offense in spite of them getting healthier.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 42.23 DK - 43.62
Levert was as bad as he could have been in the Nets' bubble opener against the Magic, and while I'm not bullish on him as the leading man for most of this bubble, I think this will be a game where we can lean on him a bit. Washington is as undermanned as Brooklyn is, and pre-Covid they paired the league's 6th fastest pace with the 2nd worst defensive efficiency. Brooklyn is going to take some bad losses during this bubble, but this match-p with the Wiz shouldn't be one of them. We're getting a price decrease from his first game in a much better match-up, and I'm here for it.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 40.29 DK - 42.03
We assumed that the Bucks, having nothing to play for, would play their starters limited minutes during the seeding period of the bubble. They proved us wrong against the Celtics, with both Giannis and Middleton logging their typical minutes in a convincing victory. Middleton scored 38 FanDuel points in 33 minutes, and honestly, it seemed like his floor. He made just 6 of 20 shots from the field, so points were definitely left on the table there, and he racked up 8 assists while running the offense alongside Giannis in Bledsoe's absence. I'm happy to play him against the Rockets' poor back court defense.
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 25.46 DK - 25.19
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 31.77 DK - 31.35
White and Walker played a combined 65 minutes with Mills out on Friday, and both paid these prices handily in their given opportunity. White was simply out of this world, putting together an effortless 26/8/5 line. Memphis isn't quite as good a match-up as the Kings, but this isn't the "grit and grind" Grizzlies either. The Grizz played the league's 7th fastest pace with a league average defensive efficiency this season. With Forbes ruled out and Belinelli doubtful, I think you can run both of these Spurs with a clear conscience. White qualifies at PG on FanDuel, and is a great play there as well.
Also considered: Bogdan Bogdanovic.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 58.43 DK - 61.02
We were part of the unlucky group that faded Giannis in the Celtics game, and we were punished by having to watch him eviscerate the C's for 68.5 fantasy points in 32 minutes of action. We were concerned that the Bucks would take it easy, but it sure didn't look like they are, so we're proceeding as though you can count on him to play a normal rotation. And what could be a better situation than going up against the run and gun Rockets? Houston might believe in their ability to out shoot you, but it's hard to imagine Antetokounmpo not being the highest owned big money player in this one.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 24.83 DK - 25.04
House grabbed the start for Eric Gordon in the Rockets' first game back from the suspended season, and played 37 minutes in regulation, eventually amassing 32.5 fantasy points in the overtime win against Dallas. We know that House is a $5,000 player when he's in the starting lineup, so this is a pretty clear price and opportunity mismatch against a Bucks team that played the league's fastest pace this season.
Also considered: Jaylen Brown and Gordon Hayward.
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 38.71 DK - 39.05
You know who looked kinda ready to play basketball? Jaren Jackson the 2nd. After dealing with injury issues in the winter, the Grizzlies ran him out there for 38 minutes of action against the Spurs. It wasn't his typical game, either, which leads me to believe that the Grizzlies were preparing for a slightly different role. Jackson shot 15 three pointers in this one, and given that he shot 39.7% from three during the season prior to the league's return he should be in a great position to put up some serious fantasy totals going forward.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 29.71 DK - 30.42
Bjelica got the start against the Spurs, and was excellent on these prices, registering 27.5 FanDuel points in 30 minutes of play. He was likely lined up for more minutes as well, as his night was cut short by foul trouble that eventually resulted in him fouling out. If he's really in line for 33+ minutes, these prices are at least 10% low going forward.
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 37.86 DK - 36.76
Poeltl was a heavy chalk play in his first game back, and contributed across the board for 30+ fantasy points on both sites. The price is getting up there on FanDuel, but this DraftKings price is a crime against humanity, and he's a straight up price and opportunity mismatch over there. The Spurs will need his size to contend with Valanciunas and the Memphis bigs, and I think you can lock him in for 30+ minutes again.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 33.28 DK - 33.06
Bryant certainly exceeded my expectations for him on Friday, playing a very productive 33 minutes against the Suns. The Nets have been the worst team in the league at defending centers for what seems like my entire adult life, and given the Wizards' lack of options I think we see Bryant go out there for another great night tonight. I like him fine on both sites, especially when you consider the fact that you'd really like to get some savings to afford guys like Giannis, Harden, or Westbrook.
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