Los Angeles Clippers' Paul George (13) drives against Oklahoma City Thunder's Terrance Ferguson (23) during the second half of an NBA basketball game, Monday, Nov. 18, 2019, in Los Angeles. The Clippers won 90-88. (AP Photo/Ringo H.W. Chiu)
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A quick word before we get started. The Denver Nuggets have already ruled out Gary Harris and Will Barton, and Jamal Murray is currently listed as questionable. You'll want to monitor this situation closely since a ton of value will inevitably open up. Some of those options might not be too exciting, like Torrey Craig, but Denver is looking pretty unpredictable for their first game in the bubble.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 31.63 DK - 33.05
After a super weird beginning to the season, Conley was just finding his stride before the season was suspended. Since February Conley has been essentially automatic for 30+ fantasy points, exceeding that total in 9 out of he 12 games where he played 30+ minutes. In his first game back against the Pelicans he scored 31.2 fantasy points in 33 minutes, and that's indicative of his performance going forward he's 10% too cheap on FanDuel and arguably more than that on DraftKings. I love him as a cash game staple even against a touch OKC defense.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 27.57 DK - 29.4
Unless we get word that Beverley is scheduled for a huge bump in minutes, Jackson looks criminally cheap in one of the best possible bubble match-ups in New Orleans. He played 34 minutes against the Lakers, and while he didn't go crazy, you'd have to think that the 19.2 FanDuel points he grabbed against the Lakers is something like his floor. He's not going to be the centerpiece of the offense by any means, and there is risk of Beverley assuming a bigger role at some point soon, but I think we get one more good value game out of him before both his price rises and Beverley returns to his full form.
Shake Milton has won the starting role, and is way too cheap on FanDuel. On DraftKings his new role is already priced in. He's probably a safer play on FD than Reggie Jackson though.
Also considered: Aaron Holiday, if Victor Oladipo winds up missing this game.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 45.69 DK - 47.15
So Paul George is apparently a shooting guard now, and he's also apparently a sub $8,000 player. Needless to say, I disagree with both of those designations. PG averaged better than these prices during the pre-Covid season, and looked great against a tough Lakers defense in his first bubble game. He led the Clips in minutes, and the extra shots from Lou Williams don't hurt either. George attempted 11 threes - his most since December - and made 6 of them, tied for his 2nd most of the season. This is a much softer match-up with a New Orleans team that should have a fit trying to cover both George and Kawhi, and I love George as a cash game staple here.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 28.66 DK - 29.97
We were off the chalk on the two game Thursday slate, running Clarkson as a cash game play off the bench. He didn't disappoint, soaking up 32 minutes while providing a hearty 37.5 FanDuel points in the process. It looks for all the world like Utah is treating these 8 games very seriously, and if they are playing a shortened rotation Clarkson should be one of the key beneficiaries. Look for his price to rise by at least 10% in short order, and the DraftKings price is particularly embarrassing.
On the safer side: We know that both Donovan Mitchell and Jrue Holiday are getting their run after their first game, and both are totally reasonable cash game options.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 33 DK - 32.9
Oladipo's status is still uncertain at this point, which means we could see all the Warren we are prepared to handle. In a league where load management has run amok, Warren is a workhorse. Indy was leaning on Warren for 36-39 minutes a game with 'Dipo out, and his excellent 52.5% field goal percentage on 14.2 shots a game suggests that the Pacers feel comfortable with him as a focal point of the offense. Indy could struggle offensively in this game, but I like Warren as a high floor play on the minutes alone.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 23.05 DK - 22.48
An incredibly clear cut FanDuel play from where I'm sitting. Anunboy has looked great in scrimmages in the bubble, and while the Raptors are a lot healthier than they were going into the forced break, he was playing 37+ minutes a game for them at that time. I don't want to test these DraftKings prices, but the absurdly cheap price on FanDuel means you can escape an otherwise poor position pretty cheaply here.
A few other guys: Kawhi seems reasonable, though I don't know if that's where you want to pay up. Tobias Harris should be safe enough. I also like Dion Waiters if you're just chasing big tournament upside.
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 54.36 DK - 54.24
Now here's a place to spend up. Davis has averaged 5x+ points per dollar on these prices over the course of the season, and that's in spite of his tenuous ability to see a game from beginning to end. After 4 months off Davis looks as healthy as can be, and while his final stat line didn't reflect it, he was having his way with the Clippers. The Raptors are a much different match-up, of course, since they have exceedingly long and athletic bigs. But Davis is a singular talent, and this price is way too cheap for the package he brings to the table, particularly with no other great big money options to look at here.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 42.04 DK - 42.8
The second power forward spot looks pretty difficult to me today. Kyle Kuzma was good off the bench in the Lakers' bubble opener. Ibaka looked great before the league was suspended, but with Gasol back I don't know if you can just pencil him in for the same production. So I'm looking at Bam. Mike Malone has come out and said that his top priority is helping his starting rotation be available for the playoffs, which leads me to believe that Adebayo and the Heat could be getting excess minutes against the second unit here. Denver is far from a great match-up, pairing tough defense with the league's second slowest PACE, but beggars can't be choosers at a tough position unless some unforeseen opportunity opens up before lineup lock.
JaMychal Green looks interesting with Harrell out again.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 39.11 DK - 39.56
The triumphant return of Rudy Gobert! The Stifle Tower looked like he was back in full form in the bubble opener, playing great interior defense with an effortless double double. Gobert averaged a straight 40 FanDuel points before the suspension, and it sure looks like he's going to get his full run of minutes right out of the gate here. Center is thin, Gobert's floor is high, and I'll happily play him in any format.
A few riskier options: Don't be surprised if either Marc Gasol or Derrick Favors takes down a big tournament today. Gasol's minutes are a total unknown, but murmurs are very positive about how he looks right now. Favors played a lot of minutes in a terrible match-up against Gobert, and really anything will be an improvement there. Both are cheap, and reasonable options if you can't put the scratch together for Gobert.
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