DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 7/26/20

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This happens to be my first MLB DFS article of the season and I'm ecstatic to be back at it! We're surely looking at the most bizarre MLB season ever and it's going to cause chaos for DFS. That's why we're kicking things off with a reliable veteran, so, let's get into it!

Pitchers

Zack Greinke FD - P 9600 DK - SP 10900
Opponent - SEA (Yusei Kikuchi) Park - HOU
FD - 36.76 DK - 19.26

The pitching options on this slate are pretty weak and it's just super safe to go with a guy like Greinke. A -305 betting line tells you pretty much everything you need to know, with the Mariners projected to barely crack three runs. We're talking about a lineup whose best hitter is Kyle Seager, ranking 20th in runs scored and 28th in K rate last season. That's brilliant news for Greinke, with the All-Star pitching to a 2.95 ERA and 1.06 WHIP since 2013. Ironically, he faced these Mariners in his final regular start last season, going 8.1 scoreless innings while accumulating nine strikeouts and flirting with a no-hitter. It doesn't hurt that Greinke threw 80 pitches in his last simulated game and looks ready for a full workload.

Vince Velasquez FD - P 6600 DK - SP 6900
Opponent - MIA (Jose Urena) Park - PHI
FD - 30.6 DK - 16.39

This is certainly a risky pick but Velasquez always keeps me coming back. This dude has all the potential in the world and five one-run innings against the Yankees in his final Spring Training start was certainly a promising sign. Getting to face Miami instead of New York is quite the drop-off in terms of skill level and he should cruise if he pitches the way he did on Wednesday. This is a Marlins club who ranked 29th or 30th in OBP, OPS and runs scored last season. That's why they're only projected for four runs here, with Philly entering this match-up as a -155 favorite. The 4.91 ERA and 1.34 WHIP last season make him risky but paying below $7,000 on both sites nullify a lot of that risk with his K upside and great match-up.

Catcher/First Base

Ji-Man Choi FD - 1B 2500 DK - 1B 4200
Opponent - TOR (Thomas Hatch) Park - TB
FD - 10.53 DK - 7.91

Choi was cheap on FanDuel all year last season and it's hard to understand why they haven't made any adjustments. Not only does he regularly bat leadoff for the Rays, he also crushes right-handed pitchers. Since 2018, Choi has a .376 OBP, .507 SLG and .883 OPS against right-handers. That's the production of a $3,500 player on FD and it's really hard to understand what they're thinking. Facing Thomas Hatcher is simply a bonus, with the righty never having pitched above Double-A.

Joey Votto FD - 1B 3100 DK - 1B 3800
Opponent - DET (Spencer Turnbull) Park - CIN
FD - 12.64 DK - 9.52

Don't look now but Votto may have found his swing. This is a guy who's struggled mightily the last two years (particularly with his power) but he has the mental aptitude to put the puzzle pieces back together. The former All-Star has gone 2-for-4 in each of his first two games, going yard in both of them. That's really all you can ask for, particularly with Votto priced so cheaply on both sites. He's absolutely owned right-handers throughout his career too, tallying a .432 OBP and .970 OPS in over 5,000 career plate appearances against them. Don't worry about Turnbull and his 4.50 career xFIP either.

If you're in need of a catcher on DraftKings, Christian Vasquez is a solid pick as part of our Boston stack.

Second Base

Mike Moustakas FD - 2B 3500 DK - 3B 4000
Opponent - DET (Spencer Turnbull) Park - CIN
FD - 13.31 DK - 10.02

Moose is someone that I absolutely loved drafting in season-long formats. What I really adore is that you get to use this masher at second base. We're talking about a dude who has at least 28 homers in three-straight seasons, who kicked off this campaign with a dinger and four RBI in the opener. That's hard to find from the weakest position in baseball and I believe that he should be $500 more on each site. Getting the platoon advantage against the aforementioned Turnbull isn't too bad either, as he and Votto make for an affordable two-man stack.

Kolten Wong FD - 2B 2600 DK - 2B 3700
Opponent - PIT (Mitch Keller) Park - STL
FD - 11.39 DK - 8.77

This is someone I wasn't really considering before the season started but batting leadoff has changed my mind for DFS purposes. There are always a few guys who gain significant value because of the early pricing simply because of their spot in the lineup. Wong is definitely one of those guys, hitting atop the dangerous Cards build. In his first two starts, Wong has three hits, two runs scored and a triple. Getting those extra plate appearances will certainly help and he should continue to sit atop this lineup against righties. A .358 OBP and .782 OPS against right-handers last season is reasonable enough and it also makes him way more likely to steal a bag. In addition, Mitch Keller isn't scaring anyone with his 7.13 ERA and 1.83 WHIP from last season.

Shortstop

Xander Bogaerts FD - SS 3600 DK - SS 4600
Opponent - BAL (Wade LeBlanc) Park - BOS
FD - 15.94 DK - 12.06

I've never really given Bogaerts the credit he deserves, as he's truly developed into an All-Star caliber player. A .384 OBP and .939 OPS out of the shortstop position tells you just how good he was last season and it'd be hard to imagine him not duplicating those types of numbers against the Orioles. This is a club that finished last in pretty much every pitching category last season and LeBlanc's 5.71 ERA and 1.45 WHIP certainly doesn't help their cause. Not to mention, Bogey rakes at home, posting a .982 OPS at Fenway Park since 2018.

Carlos Correa FD - SS 3200 DK - SS 4400
Opponent - SEA (Yusei Kikuchi) Park - HOU
FD - 14.1 DK - 10.54

This is the start of an Astros run and they're easily one of the best stacks not the board. This is a team that's entering this game as a -305 favorite, projected for six runs. That's no surprise with all of their righty masters, facing a left-hander who collected a 5.46 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 2020. That's terrifying news against Correa, with the shortstop amassing a .423 OBP and .962 OPS against southpaws last season.

Third Base

Alex Bregman FD - 3B 3900 DK - 3B/SS 5100
Opponent - SEA (Yusei Kikuchi) Park - HOU
FD - 17.39 DK - 12.95

Let's keep the Houston bats rolling with Bregman. We'll kick things off by discussing Kikuchi a bit more, who allowed 12 runs and 25 baserunners in his three starts at Houston last year. That's really scary against this lineup, especially a stud like Bregman. The third baseman posted an absurd 1.026 OPS last season and a 1.186 OPS against southpaws. A .742 SLG against the opposite hand is even more ridiculous and it's hard to fade Bregman whenever he does get to face a lefty, particularly a weak one.

Josh Donaldson FD - 3B 3100 DK - 3B 4200
Opponent - CHW (Undecided) Park - CHW
FD - 14.22 DK - 10.54

I really don't understand these price tags. After struggling in the opening month of last season, Donaldson generated a .385 OBP and .928 OPS after April 12. That's a 143-game sample size of studliness and it's clear that he's back to mashing baseballs. That would make one believe that he should be of the highest-priced third baseman out there but these sites are slow to react to that for some reason. Getting to hit in this stacked lineup against a nobody for Chicago only adds to his value and it makes him one of the best lineup fillers out there.

Outfield

George Springer FD - OF 4000 DK - OF 5300
Opponent - SEA (Yusei Kikuchi) Park - HOU
FD - 17.08 DK - 12.82

Using BvP in such a small sample is risky but Springer literally has a .678 wOBA and six hits in nine career at-bats against Kikuchi. What we really like about him here is that he gets to bat leadoff for one of the highest projected lineups of the day. He's just a lefty masher generally, and this Astros lineup should be into the bullpen by the fifth inning. TSpringer is off to a fine start, knocking a dinger on Saturday, and it seems very likely that he'll continue that success against a questionable pitcher like Kikuchi.

J.D. Martinez FD - OF 4000 DK - OF 5000
Opponent - BAL (Wade LeBlanc) Park - BOS
FD - 18.36 DK - 13.79

If we like Bogaerts for this slate, we have to love J.D. as well. This dude is obviously one of the greatest hitters in the league, which was on full display in the opener. The All-Star dropped 35 FanDuel points on us and he's always one of the easiest choices against weak lefties. That's what we have here, with LeBlanc's ugly averages from the Bogaerts write-up tempting us like crazy. Against southpaws last season, J.D. provided an absurd .494 OBP and 1.381 OPS. Those are numbers that would make Barry Bonds jealous and it's hard to fade him in such a tasty spot. In 11 at-bats against LeBlanc, Martinez is 6-for-11 with two dingers, two doubles and six RBI, if you needed any more incentive.

Andrew Benintendi FD - OF 2800 DK - OF 3600
Opponent - BAL (Wade LeBlanc) Park - BOS
FD - 13.13 DK - 9.98

If we like Bogey and J.D., how can we possibly fade the leadoff hitter for a Boston stack? That's where Benintendi has found himself after a disappointing 2019 season and it's clear they want to lean on him in the absence of Mookie Betts. There's not a lot in the statistics that will back up Benny as a play but anyone who's batting leadoff for a club who's projected for six runs needs to be taken into consideration, particularly at these prices. This is a guy with great prospect pedigree, and getting all of these variables in our favor at these price stages makes him someone that we want to use.

If you're playing the night slate, Yoenis Cespedes is way too cheap against lefty Sean Newcomb.

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