DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 7/27/20

It has been an eventful first couple of days since baseball returned with many new variables in play as the Marlins showed us yesterday with multiple positive cases of COVID-19. We now enter the first full week of action and I am excited to bring you my core plays at each position for DraftKings and FanDuel for the main slate.

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Pitchers

I preface the write-ups in this section with the fact this is an absolutely terrible slate for pitchers. Good or bad, we must roster one(two on DraftKings) so let's jump into the pit of fire and see what we can come up with tonight.

Mike Foltynewicz FD - P 8000 DK - SP 10300
Opponent - TB (Tyler Glasnow) Park - TB
FD - 31 DK - 16.02
Tyler Glasnow FD - P 9700 DK - SP 8900
Opponent - ATL (Mike Foltynewicz) Park - TB
FD - 35.52 DK - 19.51

I will start at the top with a pitcher who is a bit overpriced to what we have seen recently but it is completely relative to the slate and lack of options. Folty wasn't great last year posting a 4.54 ERA/4.73 xFIP but did have a 21%+ K rate and 10.5% swinging strike rate but what stands out the most is the matchup. The Rays were relatively held in check against a Jays staff that is average at best and ended up with 23 K's over the three games. The Trop is one of the best pitchers parks in the league and while the Braves are slight underdogs(+125) here, Folty is my top pitcher if you plan on paying up tonight.

On the other side, we have Tyler Glasnow at a much more affordable price and is actually the favorite in this matchup. He only got 12 starts in his first full year with the Rays due to a forearm strain that had him on the IL from the end of May to the start of September. Despite the small sample size, he was tremendous posting a 1.78 ERA backed up by an elite 2.94 xFIP and 33% K rate. I am writing this before game 3 of the Braves series with the Mets but their bats were not great through the first two games scoring just six runs42 wRC+) and striking out at a ridiculous 38% rate.

At this time, I lean Glasnow in cash games and will have exposure to both in GPP formats.

Josh James FD - P 6700 DK - SP 8600
Opponent - SEA (Kendall Graveman) Park - HOU
FD - 43.51 DK - 23.72

If you are for an upside arm on this slate, Josh James deserves a look, especially on FanDuel where he comes in the sub $7K range. He came primarily out of the bullpen last year but has made the Astros rotation in 2020 despite missing some time during Summer Camp. He has an electric fastball that averages over 97 mph with a nice combo if a slider and changeup as secondary pitches. He has posted a K rate over 30% every season since jumping up to AA in 2018 and if he can go five on Monday should be able to hit value and will also have a chance at the win as the Astros are the biggest favorites(-260) on the slate.

Catcher/First Base

Yuli Gurriel FD - 1B 3000 DK - 1B 3700
Opponent - SEA (Kendall Graveman) Park - HOU
FD - 11.47 DK - 8.79

At the time of writing this Sunday night, the Astros are huge -260 favorites and the top team on the slate in terms of implied runs. Garbage can banging or not, this is an elite offense and they showed it over their opening series vs. the Mariners scoring 6+ runs in each game(21 total) and Guriel has been involved with three hits in 12 at-bats with a home run, two RBI, and three runs scored. He hits 5th in a powerful lineup and comes at a very affordable price on both sites putting him in play in all formats.

Willson Contreras FD - C 3000 DK - C 4800
Opponent - CIN (Wade Miley) Park - CIN
FD - 11.32 DK - 8.53

At catcher, Willson Contreras is at the top of my list and right near the top of the raw points and PTS/$ ranks in the system. He went hitless on opening day, went 1-4 on Saturday with an RBI, and then broke out Sunday going 2-4 with a home run and drove in two, as well. He is also coming off a season where he was solid across the board(.272/.355/.533 slash line) and absolutely destroyed lefty pitching with a .419 wOBA, 161 wRC+, and .307 ISO. Tonight he faces an average-at-best southpaw in Wade Miley who struck out just 7.5 batters per nine last year while giving up a 35%+ hard contact rate and 15% HR/FB rate. Contreras is in play in all formats, especially on FanDuel at just $3K hitting in the middle of the Cubs lineup.

Second Base

Cesar Hernández FD - 2B 2800 DK - 2B 3900
Opponent - CHW (Dylan Cease) Park - CLE
FD - 11.07 DK - 8.56

After seven years with the Phillies, Hernandez has moved on to Cleveland and if opportunity was the reason, he is getting exactly what he asked for in 2020. He has hit leadoff in each of the first three games and he has not disappointed with hits in all three including a multi-hit effort on Sunday. If he is back there on Monday night, he is a great play in all formats at these prices on both sites and is especially attractive on FanDuel at a sub $3K tag.

Jonathan Schoop FD - 2B 2700 DK - 2B 3400
Opponent - KC (Mike Montgomery) Park - DET
FD - 10.69 DK - 8.17

If you are looking for a little more value at second base, especially on DraftKings in the mid $3K range, give Jonathan Schoop a look tonight. I mentioned it in chat yesterday that the Tigers are currently striking out at a historic rate(40%+) but have some bats who can provide value. Schoop is one of those and he has been hitting second in the lineup and while he went 0 for 4 yesterday, he had four hits in the first two games and best of all, was very productive vs. lefties last year with a .376 wOBA, 136 wRC+, and .286 ISO. At these prices in a matchup vs. a below-average southpaw on the mound, he is in play in all formats.

Shortstop

Francisco Lindor FD - SS 3500 DK - SS 4900
Opponent - CHW (Dylan Cease) Park - CLE
FD - 13.77 DK - 10.49
Xander Bogaerts FD - SS 3400 DK - SS 4200
Opponent - NYM (Michael Wacha) Park - BOS
FD - 11.07 DK - 8.38

There are two elite shortstops who stand out tonight if paying up and for me, it comes down to the site I am playing. On DraftKings, it's Bogaerts who is $700 cheaper, plays a big role in the middle of the Red Sox lineup and gets a plus matchup against Michael Wacha. I absolutely love Lindor and do think he is a great play on DraftKings and should be a bit lower owned with that price gap but I like him much more on FanDuel where the prices are much closer. He has got off to a slow start in 2020(2 for 14) but small sample sizes are for the birds as we all know the upside here. I prefer Bogaerts in cash games but will have exposure to both in GPP formats.
José Iglesias FD - SS 2600 DK - SS 2600
Opponent - MIA (Pablo López) Park - MIA
FD - 9.81 DK - 7.42

If you are jamming in multiple big bats there are definitely punt plays in good spots early in the season. Iglesias is priced down here for a reason as the consistency to get on base has never really been there but he is coming off a career-high in homers, albeit it was 11. More importantly, is the fact he is getting an opportunity with another new team in 2020 as the Orioles #3 hitter in the lineup and he already has eight hits through three games. At these prices, I will take the salary relief plus opportunity and play him in all formats.

**Update - With the outbreak of COVID-19, the Marlins/Orioles game has been canceled tonight**

Third Base

José Ramírez FD - 3B 3500 DK - 3B 5000
Opponent - CHW (Dylan Cease) Park - CLE
FD - 14.66 DK - 11.05

After a monster 2018, Ramirez struggled mightily to start the 2019 campaign(.218 average first half) but bounced back in a big way post All Star break hitting .327 with 16 home runs and 48 RBI. He appears to have picked up where he left off as he has opened the 2020 season with hits in three straight including a multi-home run game on Sunday. The Indians are in a great spot tonight and Ramirez is our top-ranked third basemen and in play in all formats.
Colin Moran FD - 3B 2600 DK - 1B/3B 3100
Opponent - MIL (Adrian Houser) Park - PIT
FD - 8.79 DK - 6.74

Whether we are paying up for pitching or multiple big bats tonight, we are always going to need a solid value play to tie it all together. Tonight, Colin Moran is on that list at a nice price on both sites adn comes in with hits in each of the two games he has started while also scoring two runs. He isn't going to flash huge GPP-winning upside but also won't break the bank while returning consistent value on a nightly basis. You know what to do.

Outfield

Michael Brantley FD - OF 3300 DK - OF 3300
Opponent - SEA (Kendall Graveman) Park - HOU
FD - 11.77 DK - 9

I talked about the explosive Astros offense above and are definitely a team deserving of multiple players in the article. While there are more than a couple to choose from(Correa, Springer, Bregman, Altuve), I am rolling with Brantley as a core play for cash games with Gurriel. He is coming off one of his best seasons where he posted a .311/.372/.503 slash line with 22 home runs, 90 RBI, and 88 RBi. On top of that, he has started out this campaign on fire going 5 for 13 with a home run and five RBI in the first three games. Fire him up in all formats.

Nick Castellanos FD - OF 3400 DK - OF 4500
Opponent - CHC (Jon Lester) Park - CIN
FD - 12.18 DK - 9.27

There are seven outfielders alone in the $5K range on DraftKings tonight and will be hard to pay up for without punting multiple positions. This leads me to Nick Castellanos who after spending each of the last seven seasons in Detroit is now in Cincinnati as a part of an exciting rebuild/retool. He hasn't been great through three games but he has also hasn't been terrible either with one hit in each of the games. What stands out more is the matchup vs. a lefty as he was terrifying against southpaws last season with a .460 wOBA, 190 wRC+, and .343 ISO. Lester isn't terrible but he is on the wrong side of 35 and has posted a 4+ xFIP in back to back years. Castellanos is another player in play for me in all formats on Monday.

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