(AP Photo/Julio Cortez)
Chris will be bringing you weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. Want more? He also provides a cheatsheet with stats, course history, current form, player write-ups for cash and GPP, a customizable model, and much more.
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TPC Twin Cities
Par 71 - 7,468 Yards
Greens - Bentgrass
**Click the image above to see a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**
The PGA Tour rolls into Minnesota this week for the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities. With a World Golf Championship event next week and the PGA Championship the following week, this week's field is nothing to write home about. Headlining the event is #4 Dustin Johnson and #6 Brooks Koepka, the only players inside the Top 10 and just two of seven players inside the Top 50 in the Official World Golf Rankings. The first thing this does that is most noticeable is boost everyone's price from what we have been used to over the past six weeks and most of the season, to be honest.
While it may be hard to stomach some of these prices this week, I will be sticking to the formula I have been using looking at current form since the return of golf. I have added this data to sheet looking at events played, Top 5/10/25, average finish, DraftKings average, cuts made %, and have added it into the model. To get a more detailed look at this data check out the new Weekly Trends and Cut Trends tabs on the sheet.
In terms of the stats model on the sheet, I am looking at Strokes Gained: Ball Striking as my top stat both long term and short term. When breaking that down even further, Strokes Gained: Approach is much more important and 70% of the ball striking stat in the model and then I am also adding Proximity from 175-200 and 200+ yards as 45% of all approaches came from these two ranges last year(via Fantasy National Golf Club). I also have Par 4 scoring ahead of par 5 scoring with one less par 5 on this course and I always feel players can separate themselves with a strong game on the Par 4's.
With all that said, let's get into the picks.
Lucas Glover
World Golf Ranking (#78)
Vegas Odds (36/1)
Draftkings ($9,400)
FanDuel ($10,600)
I honestly never thought I would be playing Lucas Glover as much as I have lately and more shocking is the fact his price has reached the top tier. Like I mentioned in the intro, it is relative to the weak field this week so we kind of have to ignore it, to a point. The thing that stands out in the model is the current form since the return as he has the second-best average finish(24.6) among players in the field with multiple events played. He has tallied four Top 25 finishes and an average of 81.8 DK points per event which is still an average of 8.7x value at this high price. Statistically, he ranks(in this field) 2nd in SG: Ball Striking, 3rd in BoB%, 5th in DK scoring, and Top 21 in both Par 4 and 5 scoring since the return, as well. I will go back to the well until it is dry in all f.ormats but will most definitely dodge his outright betting number.
Dustin Johnson
World Golf Ranking (#4)
Vegas Odds (11/1)
Draftkings ($11,500)
FanDuel ($12,400)
Raise your hand if DJ burned you last week and while you can't see me, rest assured my hand is high. I am going back to the well this week for a couple of reasons starting with the simple fact he is the best player in the field with a very large sample size to back it up. He also missed the cut at his first event back(Charles Schwab) and bounced back quickly with a T17 at the RBC Heritage and win at the Travelers. When looking at the stats, even with the two missed cuts, ranks 8th in ball striking and 6th in birdie or better since the return. The variance in his finishes has been very high but the upside is undeniable making him a staple in my GPP builds this week.
Also Consider: Tony Finau who is #1 in my model on the sheet having finished T23 here last year and ranking 3rd in my stats model.
Scott Stallings
World Golf Ranking (#220)
Vegas Odds (81/1)
Draftkings ($7,600)
FanDuel ($9,100)
Stallings is a player that both my sheet model and the DFSR model agree on this week. While it may seem odd, he has been providing near-elite PTS/$ value since the return of golf making all four cuts and returning at least 10x in each event. The price started out in the 6K range for the first two events back and then jumped up into the mid 7K range which is where he is again this week but in a much worse field. In this field, he ranks 8th in SG: Approach, 14th in SG: Ball Striking, and 23rd in DK scoring and has been consistent all season making 75% of his cuts. At these prices, I will have exposure in all formats.
Richy Werenski
World Golf Ranking (#248)
Vegas Odds (81/1)
Draftkings ($7,400)
FanDuel ($8,800)
After sitting in the 6K range in each of the last five events, Werenski has seen a sizeable jump but I am not too concerned. After struggling pre-covid, he appears to have found something since the return making all four cuts and has flashed upside as well ranking 29th in SG: Approach, 7th in Proximity from 200+ yards, 4th in Par 5 scoring, and 34th in overall BoB%. He played here last year, as well, and finished T46 which is what I think his floor is this week. I will have exposure in all formats.
Also Consider: Sam Burns who finished T7 here last year, comes in with three straight Top 30 finishes, and ranks(in this field) 9th in BoB% and 8th in DK points since the return of golf
Chesson Hadley
World Golf Ranking (#215)
Vegas Odds (126/1)
Draftkings ($6,900)
FanDuel ($8,400)
At first glance, you might be a little concerned with this pick as Hadley not only missed the cut here last year, he almost finished dead last. Digging in deeper we see he went into last year's event ranked 138th on Tour in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and goes in this year ranked 54th. Looking at the stats since the return of golf is where things really look good as he ranks(in this field) 7th in SG: Ball Striking, 6th in SG: Approach(7th from 175-200 yards), and 8th in Birdie or Better %. With a price that still sits in the sub $7K range on DK, I will have exposure in all formats.
Seamus Power
World Golf Ranking (#439)
Vegas Odds (226/1)
Draftkings ($6,500)
FanDuel ($7,600)
With so few "top tier" players in the field this week and wanting to get a few of them together, we are going to spending a lot more time in this scrub range. Seamus Power is a name that stands out immediately ranking 8th in my model on the sheet. The sample size since the return is small with him playing just one tourney but it was impressive with a T12 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, his third straight cut made on Tour this season, all inside the Top 40. That is all I am looking for this week but feel he has a ton of upside at his price considering he is 7th on tour this season in Birdie or Better %.
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