(AP Photo/John Locher)
Chris will be bringing you weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. Want more? He also provides a cheatsheet with stats, course history, current form, player write-ups for cash and GPP, a customizable model, and much more.
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TPC River Highlands
Par 70 - 6,841 Yards
Greens - Bent/Poa
**Click the image above to see a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**
We have been treated to some tremendous golf over the last two weeks since the PGA Tour resumed and for the third straight week, we get an elite field led by each of the Top 5 and nine of the Top 10 players in the Official World Golf Rankings.
For the second straight week the players will be faced with a Pete Dye classic, this time it will be TPC River Highlands for the Travelers Championship. The course is a Par 70 listed at 6,841 yards on the scorecard and in comparison to the last two weeks, has slightly larger fairways and it shows with an average driving accuracy above 65% over the last five years. You definitely don't want to be missing many fairways, however, as the rough can get long and gnarly and is consistently around 3.5 inches.
While a complete tee to green game is required, Strokes Gained: Approach is my top-weighted stat in the model closely followed by Par 4 scoring which has also shown heavy correlation to success here when looking back at pasts events.
This course, while also on the short side like the last two weeks, has seen more longer players(driving distance) have success in the past(see Bubba Watson). An all bombers lineup is likely not going to get you a GPP win but don't be afraid to use them just because of the course. The key for me when breaking this down will be a broader look from the tee box looking at Strokes Gained: Off the Tee(total driving).
The greens are once again smaller than Tour average so I will be weighing Strokes Gained: Around the Green/Scrambling in my model as well. Overall, I want players who have been ball striking really well and performing on the Par 4's since the return of golf.
With the stronger field once again, a balanced lineup build is my preferred in cash game strategy even with some increases in price for some golfers. With that, let's dig into some picks.
Bryson DeChambeau
World Golf Ranking (#11)
Vegas Odds (15/1)
Draftkings ($11,000)
FanDuel ($11,700)
I started off the return to golf favoring Rory but it is hard to ignore the numbers even the price gap has actually shrunk. Bryson has finished T3 and T8 since golf returned on the back of a 66.6 scoring average per round. He is second in the field in that time in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking(2.7 per round) while Rory is outside the Top 25 gained just one stroke per round. This will be his fourth trip to the Travelers and is coming off back to back Top 10 finishes in each of the last two years. I will take the slight discount and roll with Bryson who is on the verge of hoisting fifth PGA Tour trophy.
Abraham Ancer
World Golf Ranking (#24)
Vegas Odds (36/1)
Draftkings ($9,000)
FanDuel ($10,600)
I talked about targeting players who have been top ball strikers since the return golf and the only golfer who has been better than Bryson is none other than Abraham Ancer. He has gained an average of 2.9 strokes on the field per round in the category led by his elite iron game(gained 2.1 of those strokes per round on approach). While his first two trips to TPC River Highlands were not memorable(T56, T75), he was terrific here last year with a T8 gained 7.6 strokes Tee to Green. I look for the form to carry over and Ancer will be a core play for me in cash and even with the price bump, still has Top 5-10 upside, perfect for GPP formats, as well.
Matthew Fitzpatrick
World Golf Ranking (#26)
Vegas Odds (51/1)
Draftkings ($8,100)
FanDuel ($9,900)
A five-time winner on the European Tour, Fitzpatrick is now in his first full season on the PGA Tour and things have gotten off to a pretty good start. He has made all seven cuts including Top 10's at the WGC HSBC Champions and Arnold Palmer Invitational and is also coming off a T14 last week at the RBC Heritage where he tallied 103 DK points for a 13.0 PTS/$ value. The price only went up $200 on both sites making him a core play for me in all formats with his cut making consistency for cash games and upside for GPP's.
Brian Harman
World Golf Ranking (#120)
Vegas Odds (81/1)
Draftkings ($7,600)
FanDuel ($9,200)
Harman checks multiple boxes this week starting with his course history as he returns to the Travelers Championship with Top 10 finishes in two straight and three of his last five trips and making the cut in seven of eight trips. Then comes the form as he has been very consistent over the past two weeks averaging a score of 67.9 over those eight rounds. He has struggled off the tee(-5.5 strokes lost last two weeks) but has been awesome everywhere else gaining 5.5 strokes on approach, 58 strokes around the green and 4.7 strokes putting. At these prices, he is a core play in all formats.
Tyler Duncan
World Golf Ranking (#169)
Vegas Odds (201/1)
Draftkings ($6,500)
FanDuel ($7,900)
Outside of Matthew Fitzpatrick who is making his first trip to TPC River Highlands, every golfer I am targeting has a combination of course history and form and Tyler Duncan joins that group. Despite a win at the RSM Classic, Duncan wasn't very consistent going into the break making just six of 12 cuts. He has been solid since the return to golf with a T38 at the Charles Schwab Challenge and T28 last week at the Heritage. At his price, he has crushed value on DraftKings with 85 and 74.5 points during those events for double-digit PTS/$ in both. He now returns to the Travelers where he has finished T43 & T33 in his two trips. That is more than enough for him to hit value once again and is a core play in all formats.
Will Gordon
World Golf Ranking (#561)
Vegas Odds (401/1)
Draftkings ($6,200)
FanDuel ($7,000)
I wouldn't recommend Gordon for cash but if you are buildings stars and scrubs GPP lineups, he is a nice fit. The 2019 SEC Player of the Year is off to a solid start on the PGA Tour making four of six cuts with a Top 10 and three Top 25 finishes. While he doesn't pop off the page in the stats model, he is 35th in SG: Off the Tee, 44th in Par 4 Scoring, and 12th in par 4 Scoring from 400-450 yards over the last 24 rounds(via FantasyNational).
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