(AP Photo/Joshua Paul)
Chris will be bringing you weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. Want more? He also provides a cheatsheet with stats, course history, current form, player write-ups for cash and GPP, a customizable model, and much more.
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Harbour Town Golf Links
Par 71 - 7,099 Yards
Greens -Bermuda
**Click the image above to see a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**
Oh man, was it ever awesome to see live PGA Tour golf once again. We were not only treated to an elite field but one heck of a finish on Sunday that had started with 14 players all within three strokes of the lead. It was Xander Schauffele with the one-stroke lead being chased by an elite group led by Rory McIlroy, Gary Woodland, Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Justin Rose, Bryson DeChambeau and 18/36 hole leader, Harold Varner III. Xander ended up missing a short putt on 17 leading to a bogey and eventually missing a playoff but one stroke. it turned out being Morikawa and Berger going to extra holes where a short miss by Morikawa led to a Daniel Berger hoisting the hardware, his third career win.
The re-structured schedule takes the PGA Tour to Harbour Town Golf Links this week for the RBC Heritage which was originally set to take place back in April. The course is a Pete Dye design which, like last week, puts emphasis on precision and accuracy much more than distance. It shows in the results as each of the last five winners(farthest I went back) averaged 280 yards or less in terms of driving distance for the week. In fact, during those last five events, the Top 10 finishers averaged between 280 and 284 yards each year. For the long hitters, and there are lots of them, this means a heavy dose of dialing it back and using a "Less than Driver" strategy off the tee. This combined with shorter, less penal rough has me less on driving accuracy this week and much more on iron play and Strokes Gained: Approach.
Like I mentioned on the podcast this week, when breaking down the approach shot further, I will be concentrating on the 150-200 range as around 50% of all approach shots here come from that range(via Fantasy National Golf Club). Another reason for such a heavy weight on Approach this week is the fact the Bermuda greens here at Harbour Town are the smallest on Tour at just over 3700 sq feet on average. This also puts a ton of emphasis on Scrambling/Strokes Gained: Around the Green as the Greens in Regulation rate should end up being lower than average once again with those small green complexes.
In my custom models using Fantasy National Golf Club, I will also be breaking down performance on Pete Dye courses and putting on Bermuda greens.
With all that said, let's jump in and take a look at some of my core plays in each price range.
Justin Rose
World Golf Ranking (#14)
Vegas Odds (31/1)
Draftkings ($9,200)
FanDuel ($11,200)
The system was heavy on Rose last week and somehow avoided some mega-chalk bombs and wouldn't you know it, it loves him again. I have to agree as he is coming off a terrific week at the Charles Schwab Challenge where he finished Top 10 in Driving Accuracy(67.9%), Strokes Gained: Tee to green(6.4), and Strokes Gained: Putting(5.4). I get why so many(including myself) were off Rose last week as he missed cuts in three of four events before the break but it appears he has found his game and the price only climbed a small amount from last week which is odd considering all the odd movement in that area, especially on DraftKings(see Berger, Simpson, Koepka, Fowler, DJ). I like Rose in all formats for DFS and will also have some wagers on him as well(outright, Top 10, Top 20).
Justin Thomas
World Golf Ranking (#3)
Vegas Odds (15/1)
Draftkings ($10,900)
FanDuel ($11,800)
I was very high on Rory last week and things were looking good until the final round. I am not off Rory this week but have shifted alliances at the top and will have a lot of Justin Thomas in GPP formats this week. As of Tuesday afternoon, it appears he could be lower owned than Rory and Bryson as he sits third in tags among that group on FanShareSports. Like Rory, JT entered the final round on Sunday just a couple shots back but couldn't close the gap but did end up with a Top 10 finish. Outside of losing strokes off the tee, he was awesome all-around, gaining strokes in every area and was elite on approaches gained a whopping seven strokes. His lack of accuracy off the tee can sometimes get him in trouble but he has elite upside and could be the lowest owned of the top 3 golfers. Sign me up!
Matt Kuchar
World Golf Ranking (#18)
Vegas Odds (41/1)
Draftkings ($8,300)
FanDuel ($10,400)
Kuchar missed the cut by one stroke last week which not only destroyed some really good DFS lineups but also crushed me in one and done, as well. I am going right back to the well as Kuchar's game is built for this old school course. In fact, Kuchar is 5th in this field in terms of Strokes Gained: Total on Pete Dye courses, and Bermuda greens are where his elite putting excels the most. It also shows in his course history as he finished T2 here last year and has Top 25 finishes in six straight and eight of his last 10 trips. Core play in all formats.
Joel Dahmen
World Golf Ranking (#68)
Vegas Odds (71/1)
Draftkings ($7,500)
FanDuel ($9,500)
Dahmen was a player who went into the break red hot with back to back Top 5's and three straight Top 15 finishes. He picked up right where he left off in an elite field last week at the Charles Schwab Challange finishing with a T19 with 80.5 DraftKings points. He ended up 21st in Strokes Gained: Total on the week highlighted by his iron game as he gained 5.2 strokes on approach(9th best in the field). Looking at my long term stats model on my sheet, he sits at #22 ranking 12th in SG: Approach, 10th in SG: Ball Striking, 4th in Overall Proximity, and 15th in Par 4 Scoring. At this price, I will have exposure in all formats in DFS and will be adding him to my Top 20 card for betting.
Maverick McNealy
World Golf Ranking (#213)
Vegas Odds (141/1)
Draftkings ($7,100)
FanDuel ($8,500)
While Viktor Hovland has the win, albeit a lesser-field Puerto Rico Open, and leads the rookie rankings this season, McNealy has been quietly very good himself. After missing the cut in his first two events(Greenbrier, Sanderson Farms) he reeled off 11 straight made cuts with a Top 10 and six Top 30 finishes. He then missed the cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational before the break but bounced back with a solid effort last week finishing T32 while returning 10x value on DraftKings. The price actually went down on both sites so sign me up in all formats.
Patrick Rodgers
World Golf Ranking (#199)
Vegas Odds (141/1)
Draftkings ($7,100)
FanDuel ($8,600)
Rodgers is another player who picked up where he left off last week posting a very impressive T14 finish and the 9th best PTS/$ value on DraftKings(12.4x). Despite a shaky iron game(192nd in SG:APP this season), Rodgers has been very consistent making 14 of 18 cuts(78%) with a Top 10 and five Top 25 finishes on the back of an elite putting stroke(12th on Tour in SG: APP this season). At these prices, a Top 40-50 finish would probably work in cash games and he has Top 20 upside and finished last week Top 10 in birdies(4+ each round) and is also a great showdown value as well.
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