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FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Wednesday, 3/11/20
Monday's slate was a complete disaster with the crap that Milwaukee pulled but Tuesday was more normal. Random restings are going to become more common over the final month of the season though and it makes things very difficult on us. That's why we're going to try to forecast some potential absences and our first play is definitely one of those guys who could benefit from a teammate being out.
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Point Guard
Luka Doncic FD - $11200 DK - $11000
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 51.35 DK - 53.72
With Dallas playing on Tuesday, it seems very likely that Kristaps Porzingis will sit in the second half of a back-to-back set. That's huge for everyone in this offense, with KP averaging 51.4 fantasy points per game over his last 14 fixtures. That's a lot of production to make-up and it's clear that Doncic is in take-over mode when you see his 40 percent usage rate with Porzingis off the floor. He's also averaging 1.7 DK points per minute with KP sidelined and averaged 53 DraftKings points per game in the 12 games that he's missed this season.
De'Aaron Fox FD - $7800 DK - $7800
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 43.68 DK - 43.9
Fox is a little bit risky but there's a lot to like about him here. His biggest asset is his matchup, facing a Pelicans team that sits 27th in total defense and third in pace. That fast pace is even more attractive for a guy like Fox, as he's one of the fastest players in the NBA. He's been rolling recently too, scoring at least 33 DK points in 25 of his last 27 games while averaging 41 fantasy points per game in that span. That's rare to see from a player below $8,000 and it's scary to think how many stats he can accrue in this up=tempo matchup.
Kendrick Nunn (FD $4600 DK $4800) would be a fantastic play if Jimmy Butler sits out with his toe injury.
Shooting Guard
Bogdan Bogdanovic FD - $5200 DK - $5100
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 30.81 DK - 31.92
It's crazy that Bogdanovic's price remains so affordable. Not only does he have at least 20 fantasy points in 10-straight games, he's also averaging 30 DraftKings points per game in that span. That directly correlates with his increase in playing time, being moved into the starting lineup just over a month ago. All of that looks even better when you consider his matchup against a terrible New Orleans defense, with the Pelicans owning a 28th OPRK against opposing shooting guards this season.
Bruce Brown Jr. FD - $5000 DK - $5200
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 27.91 DK - 27.52
With Reggie Jackson, Derrick Rose, Andre Drummond, Luke Kennard and Blake Griffin all out of the picture, someone needs to handle the ball for the Pistons. Brown has become that guy, averaging 10.2 points, 7.1 rebounds and 4.5 assists over his last 11 games played. That equates to 27.1 DraftKings points per outing and that's really all you can hope for from a player sitting around $5,000. Philadelphia is not necessarily a matchup we're worried about right now either, playing without Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons.
Jrue Holiday (FD $8700 DK $8200) has been superb recently and is definitely in play against a weak Kings' defense.
Small Forward
Brandon Ingram FD - $7700 DK - $8000
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 38.93 DK - 40.18
This game is obviously one that we want to target. The reason for that is because these are two bad defense, which is evident by the 236-point total and 1.5-point spread. Those Vegas lines are a DFS player's dream and it makes all of the players in this matchup intriguing options. That certainly means Ingram is a great play, leading the way with 41.8 DraftKings points per outing. Some people are concerned about his production with Zion Williamson on the floor but a 37-point average across his last 14 fixtures should quiet those notions.
Harrison Barnes FD - $4900 DK - $5000
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 26.6 DK - 27.55
Barnes pops up in our projection system a lot and he just continues to be undervalued on these sites. While it's never exciting to click the green plus next to his name, it's a good way to find 5X production. Not only is he averaging 26 DK points per game for the season, Barnes is also 28 fantasy points per game over his last 13 outings. That alone makes him hard to fade but facing a Pelicans team who owns a 29th OPRK against opposing SFs makes him one of the best bets out there to exceed 5X value. Not to mention, Harry dropped 40 DraftKings points in his one meeting with New Orleans earlier this season.
Tobias Harris (FD $7500 DK $8500) has been the focal point of the Sixers offense with Simmons and Embiid sidelined and dropped over 50 fantasy points in his one meeting with the Pistons earlier this season.
Power Forward
Julius Randle FD - $7600 DK - $7800
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 38.38 DK - 41.39
Using guys against Atlanta is a cheat code. Sitting 28th in defensive efficiency and 29th in points allowed says a lot but they also own a 21st OPRK against opposing PFs. That tremendous matchup is fantastic news for a guy like Randle, with the big man scoring at least 31 DK points in 30 of his last 33 games while averaging 40 fantasy points per game in that span. All of that is truly evident in his two games against the Hawks, averaging 49.6 DraftKings points per game in his two meetings with Atlanta.
Maximilian Kleber FD - $4400 DK - $4600
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 24.78 DK - 24.72
Maximillian, gotta love that! This guy is more than just a name though, he's got some serious game. The reason we really like him today is because we anticipate Porzingis sitting out. That should force Kleber into the starting lineup and into a big workload. If you look at the 22 games that Kleber has played at least 30 minutes, he's averaging 27.3 DraftKings points per game. That's a scary total from a player below $5,000 and that's even more enticing with Maxi averaging 26.4 fantasy points per game over his last 10 fixtures.
Zion Williamson (FD $7300 DK $7800) is always in play with his sky-high upside but will likely be one of the highest owned players on this slate
Center
Nikola Jokic FD - $9300 DK - $9700
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 46.63 DK - 49.17
Jokic has been slumping the last three games but he was one of the best players in the NBA prior to that. In fact, Joker is still averaging 50.1 DK points per game over his last 29 fixtures. That's an extended stretch of greatness and it allows us to overlook a minor shooting slump across the last week. What we really like here is that he gets to face a Dallas frontcourt without Porzingis and Dwight Powell. That's awesome with Jokic averaging 21.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, 8.5 assists, and 2.0 steals in his two games against the Mavericks this season.
Dewayne Dedmon FD - $5000 DK - $4700
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 28.27 DK - 27.61
Why is Dedmon still so cheap? With Clint Capela injured and Alex Len in Sacramento, DD is the only center remaining. Some recent foul trouble has limited his fantasy upside but he's still averaging 29 DK points per game across 25 minutes of action over his last 11 games played. Per-minute production like that is absolutely brilliant from a $5,000 player and we simply can't fade him against a Knicks team who surrenders the second-most fantasy points to opposing centers.
Thon Maker (FD $4000 DK $3100) should start and play around 30 minutes which puts him in play at such a cheap price tag.
