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Daily Fantasy PGA Picks and Betting Guide for DraftKings & FanDuel – The PLAYERS Championship
Chris will be bringing you weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. Want more? He also provides a cheatsheet with stats, course history, current form, player write-ups for cash and GPP, a customizable model, and much more.
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This week the PGA Tour heads to TPC Sawgrass for The PLAYERS Championship and one of the strongest fields in golf. Each of the Top 10 and 47 of the Top 50 players in the world are teeing it up this week and 110 players in the field have at least one PGA Tour win.
TPC Sawgrass is a Par 72 listed at 7,189 yards on the scorecard and is a classic Pete Dye design with tight fairways, Bermuda rough(2.5 inches on average), and small Bermuda greens(5,500 sq feet on average). Accuracy off the tee is very important if you want a decent lie and opportunity to hit the smaller greens and this leads to a fairly heavy "less than driver" strategy for most of the field. The second key here is the approach shot to the smaller greens and this is where the winners have mostly separated themselves in past years. Five of the 10 Par 4's are also 450+ yards so there will also be a lot of approaches coming from 175+ yards so players will need to be on with their long irons. With the smaller greens, there is going to be a lower Greens in Regulation % which means getting up and down is very important so Scrambling/Strokes Gained: Around the Green is weighted heavy in my model as well. Finally, with a winning score in the mid-teens on average year to year, Birdie or Better % is a great stat to look at as well, especially if you are playing showdown contests on DraftKings.
From a cash game lineup construction perspective, I always like going balanced and this week it makes even more sense as the strong field has lowered the prices on some top players. For GPP formats, balanced also works but stars and scrubs is likely preferred and is easy to do as there are lots of value in the lower price tiers. With that let's get into the picks.
TPC Sawgrass
Par 72 - 7,189 yards
Greens - Bermuda
**Click the image above to see a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**
Previous Five Winners
- 2019 - Rory Mcilroy(-16)
- 2018 - Webb Simpson(-18)
- 2017 - Si Woo Kim(-10)
- 2016 - Jason Day(-15)
- 2015 - Rickie Fowler(-12)
Top Stats in the Model
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Proximity from 175+ yards
- Par 4 Scoring
- Birdie or Better %
- Strokes Gained: Around the Green
- Putting Performance on Bermuda Greens
When breaking down the top stats I use a combination of my own cheatsheet and the tools over at FantasyNational.com.
Top Tier Targets
Rory McIlroy
World Golf Ranking (#1)
Vegas Odds (7/1)
Draftkings ($11,700)
FanDuel ($12,200)
Rory was the highest owned golfer last week and that trend likely continues here as he returns to The PLAYERS as the defending champ and is second among all players in the field in Strokes Gained: Total at TPC Sawgrass over the last 50 rounds. He let a win slip away last week at the API but still finished with his seventh straight Top 5 finish which is the longest streak by any player going all the way back to 2000. He is #1 player in the world, is elite in every stat category and even with a giant price tag will be easy to roster with all the low-end value available. He is my core play to build around GPP formats once again.
Bryson DeChambeau
World Golf Ranking (#6)
Vegas Odds (28/1)
Draftkings ($9,100)
FanDuel ($11,300)
The chalk train rolls on as Bryson comes with a very attractive price on DraftKings this week and is coming off three straight Top 5 finishes. This will be his third trip to TPC Sawgrass and the results have gotten better each time with a T37 in 2018 and T20 last year. Looking at my custom model on Fantasy National, Bryson ranks 6th, 2nd, and 12th over the last 8, 12, and 24 rounds and has gained a whopping 26.3 strokes ball striking over his last three events. At these prices, he will not only be a core piece of my cash game builds but in GPP as well.
Mid Tier Targets
Matt Kuchar
World Golf Ranking (#17)
Vegas Odds (55/1)
Draftkings ($7,800)
FanDuel ($9,700)
Another cash game lock for me this week is Matt Kuchar who is back down to his lowest price of the season on DraftKings. That is not the only reason to like Kuchar this week as he returns to TPC Sawgrass and the PLAYERS Championship having made eight of his last 10 cuts including a win back in 2012 and six finishes of T26 or better. He is 30th in my stats model on the sheet and looking at my custom model, he is 7th in SG: Total on Pete Dye courses over the last 50 rounds and 32nd in SG: Putting on Bermuda over the last 24 rounds. Lock and load!
Collin Morikawa
World Golf Ranking (#44)
Vegas Odds (50/1)
Draftkings ($7,900)
FanDuel ($10,000)
We can't talk mid-range plays without mentioning Morikawa who, like Kuchar, has seen his price hit a season-low this week. It seems like very odd pricing considering he is coming off a T9 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where he gained an insane 10.6 strokes on approach and has now gained six or more strokes in that area in three of his last four events. This is his first trip to TPC Sawgrass for the PLAYERS but has the game to succeed here and could see a 2nd straight Top 10 if he can roll some putts in on these Bermuda greens.
Value Targets
Chez Reavie
World Golf Ranking (#36)
Vegas Odds (160/1)
Draftkings ($7,100)
FanDuel ($8,500)
One reason we can go a bit stars and scrubs even in cash games this week is the fact there are so many solid palys in the low $7K and below range and Chez is one of them. He has been very streaky lately as he missed three straight cuts at the Sony Open, American Express, and WMPO but has followed that up with not only three straight cuts made but all Top 30's with a Top 10 mixed in as well. He doesn't stand out much in stats model outside of one very important area for me, he is Top 20 in SG: Around the Green in both my long term and short term models. He has only made two of four cuts here at TPC Sawgrass but has T30 in there and with his form, I think he can get there again making him a core play in all formats this week.
Max Homa
World Golf Ranking (#71)
Vegas Odds (110/1)
Draftkings ($6,600)
FanDuel ($8,500)
I rarely dip my toes into the $6k range(DraftKings) but this week I will be making an exception and Homa is one of the reasons why. He is another first-timer and comes in with tremendous form having made nine straight cuts and has a Top 25 finish in five straight and six of his last seven events with three Top 10's. Incredible!! Looking at my short-term model, he is also Top 20 over the last 8, 12, and 24 rounds. that is more than enough more me to put him in my core in all formats.
