FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Monday, 3/9/20

It's a three-game Monday slate of NBA action on FanDuel and DraftKings. Let's take a look at cash game plays for both sites.

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Point Guard

Eric Bledsoe FD - $6000 DK - $5700
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 37.01 DK - 37.73
Well, Giannis Antetokounmpo has already been ruled out for Monday’s game after sitting on Sunday as well and neither site did much in the way of correcting the prices on the other Bucks’ pieces. That means we are looking at massive chalk plays for a few of these guys again on Monday. With Giannis off the court this season Bledsoe spikes to a 31.2% usage rate, the second-highest on the team in that scenario. The assist and rebound rates tick up dramatically as well which makes sense considering the amount of use raw stats that leave the court with the Bucks’ superstar isn’t around. This one is pretty set it and forget it for cash games and I suspect we see Bledsoe as something like a 90%+ play on both sites for Monday.

Terry Rozier FD - $5900 DK - $6600
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 34.05 DK - 35.6
The Hornets’ season is effectively over at this point, but they are running their guards quality minutes still and Rozier has played 35+ in each of the last six games. In that span he’s averaging 19 points per game along with four assists. Sure, these aren’t overwhelming numbers but the opponents have been combinations (mostly) of either slow teams or really defensively sound ones. On Monday that won’t be the case when they face Atlanta who sports the third-worst defensive efficiency in the league with the fourth-fastest pace. This is a great buy spot on Rozier whose minutes should keep the floor reasonably high and he isn’t coming at exorbitant prices.

If Fred VanVleet remains out you can consider Kyle Lowry (FD $7300 DK $8400).

And I do think we could see some ownership on Trae Young (FD $9600 DK $10300).

The We Got Nets guys jump on their Brooklyn Nets Podcast to look at the first game without Kenny Atkinson.

Shooting Guard

Khris Middleton FD - $7000 DK - $7600
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 46.15 DK - 48.3
Donte Divincenzo FD - $4200 DK - $4800
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 23.6 DK - 23.46
So we got the one Bucks’ chalk play out of the way and here’s the other one. Middleton’s price is a joke on both sites and we might be looking at close to a 100%-owned play on both sites here. The case is simple: when Giannis is off the court Middleton spikes to a team-high 33% usage rate with the assists and rebounds trending up 7% as well. At the risk of sounding didactic, this is about the easiest play ever at these price points and it’s not going to come out of nowhere. We are going to see massive ownership because neither site made it a particularly difficult decision.

Meanwhile, Divincenzo came off the bench on Sunday in the loss to the Suns and played 28 minutes. He dropped 16 points, seven rebounds and four assists in that run. If you think this is replicable on Monday then he’s an excellent value. The issue with Milwaukee is in that game they were playing from behind and closed with a very small lineup. I’m not sure that will be the case again on Monday against Denver, but Donte is probably worth a stab at least on FanDuel in the lower-$4K range. It’s closer on DraftKings.

Devonte' Graham FD - $6100 DK - $6400
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 32.6 DK - 34.26
Graham has shot 40% from three over the last four games on more than eight attempts per game. Like we said with Rozier, he gets a great matchup against the Hawks who don’t feign much in the way of defense especially against opposing guards. The only issue with Graham is that Charlotte hasn’t felt the need to extend his minutes much beyond the low-30’s in that run. That’s the only thing that makes him moderately risky. He’ll need to knock down his shots at volume in order to really make due at these prices.

Small Forward

Will Barton FD - $5300 DK - $6000
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 30.16 DK - 30.83
With the Nuggets, we’ve seen the plan with Barton in the short-term in close games and that’s to play him upper-30’s minutes. They’ve lost two of the last three, but in that stretch he’s averaging 19 points and six rebounds all while only shooting 25% from three on more than eight attempts per game. We just saw the Bucks without Giannis give up 140 to the Suns on Sunday. Not to say they become defensively compromised, this is still a very good team, but we also don’t need to avoid them on a smaller slate. Barton is coming at an excellent price on both sites.

After Barton, who for me is the clear play, things get a little weirder. The position is super thin. Miles Bridges (FD $5700 DK $5500) and De'Andre Hunter (FD $4600 DK $5200) are moderately interesting in the “please don’t kill me” territory. Both should play a majority of minutes at the three, but they don’t necessarily light your hair on fire either. The problem is that beyond these guys there’s very few ways to go on this slate.

Power Forward

John Collins FD - $8600 DK - $9000
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 48.53 DK - 50.03
Power forward is weak again on Monday with limited options. If Collins can avoid blowouts and foul trouble (a couple of bigger ifs for this guy) then it sure seems like the Atlanta plan is to play him in the upper-30’s. That’s what he ran on Saturday against the Grizz (39) and finished with 28 points and seven rebounds. He’s basically a double-double projection at these minutes and the Hornets don’t defend the interior all that well. I think the DraftKings price is a little suspect, but on FanDuel, considering the power forward player pool is ultra-thin we should see decent ownership on Collins.

PJ Washington FD - $5200 DK - $5600
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 30.09 DK - 30.64
Ersan Ilyasova FD - $3600 DK - $4600
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 19.85 DK - 20.21
I’m grouping these guys together as speculative plays relative to their price points. Ersan got the start for Giannis against the Suns on Sunday and basically sucked, playing only 15 minutes, not taking a single shot and finishing with just seven rebounds. That being said, we have something of a track record with this guy when he starts for ABC and I think starting again (this is the key) would put him in play again.

And then there’s P.J. who’s been shooting around eight threes per game over the the last few games. He needs to knock down the long ball to hit value at these prices, but that’s in play against the Hawks. The mid-tier salary is pretty attractive if you think he’s going to hit mid-30’s minutes.

Center

Cody Zeller FD - $4300 DK - $4900
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 25.09 DK - 25.01 It’s obvious the Hornets have no idea which center is best. But that’s fine for us because we just need to know which guy is starting. For a bit it was Biyombo, but over the last couple it’s been Zeller and last game he played 28 minutes with 13 points, five rebounds and three steals. The price didn’t move all that much and on FanDuel he’s definitely a deal and will likely be the most popular play considering his ownership last time out. On DraftKings it’s a little closer with the price climbing just a tad.

Brook Lopez FD - $5100 DK - $5100
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 29.62 DK - 28.05
Lopez was a pretty popular play on Sunday with Giannis out but got buzzed off minutes late because the Bucks were in catch-up mode. Against Jokic and the Nuggets on Monday it makes sense to project him for more minutes and I think he definitely makes for a value play here, especially on DraftKings where the three-ball gets you a tick more points.

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