FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Friday, 3/6/20

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Point Guard

Trae Young FD - $9900 DK - $9900
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 53.14 DK - 58.02
The Hawks have played in blowouts in two of the last three games (one in their favor, one not so much) leading to reduced minutes for Young in the short-term. That’s also led to the price stagnating and now he gets an awesome matchup against the Wizards in what projects to be a breakneck, up and down game. These are the fourth and sixth-fastest paced teams in the league this season and there’s a reason the total on this game is through the roof. Young is averaging just a hair under 30 points a game this season with nine assists and in closer games 37 to 38 minutes sure seems like the plan for the second-year volume shooter. I suspect Trae has higher ownership on this slate that could have a lot of cheaper value considering the injury news around some of the other teams.

T.J. McConnell FD - $3800 DK - $4000
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 26.67 DK - 26.55
Aaron Holiday FD - $3700 DK - $4000
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 26.26 DK - 27.1
Malcolm Brogdon has already been labeled as doubtful for Friday’s game after leaving Wednesday’s game early with a knee issue. Combine that with Victor Oladipo having sat out the last couple of games and questionable for Friday as well. That could leave a great many guard minutes up for grabs for the Pacers against the Bulls. McConnell stepped in against the Bucks on Wednesday and played 30 minutes after Brogdon left the game. The former finished with 14 points, six assists and four rebounds along with a couple of steals. If he drew the start for Brogdon he’d be an excellent value play. Meanwhile, Holiday has been starting for Oladipo over the last couple of games for Oladipo and would be in line of the start again if the former sat again. Both guys are coming on the cheaper side and would make for a high floor stack in cash (relative to price) with the amount of minutes they could be playing.

Shooting Guard

Bradley Beal FD - $10100 DK - $10400
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 54.02 DK - 55.67
We are basically at peak pricing for Beal but it’s on the back of the dude just dropping an insane amount of points over the last seven or so games. Since February 23rd, Beal is playing 38 minutes per game and dropping an average of 38 points and six assists per game. The Wiz have no issue getting negligent with how much run the guy gets and that shouldn’t be something to worry about in this one against one of the worst defenses in the league. For a big slate, we could be looking at a superstar stack between Young and Beal and as long as the game stayed close it sure seems like that pairing has an incredibly high floor.

DeMar DeRozan FD - $7800 DK - $7200
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 41.68 DK - 42.02
It sure seemed like when LaMarcus Aldridge initially went out with injury we’d see a significant usage bump for DeMar DeRozan, but that hasn’t totally been the case with DDR averaging only 15 points per game over the last four. He’s taking an average of only 12 shots per game in that stretch. But in some ways what he isn’t doing with the shot he’s making up in being more of a creator. He’s averaging nine assists per game nearly doubling his season average. That’s a welcome sign and I do think we are still getting him as a value, especially on DraftKings where he fits as a mid-tier consideration in the low $7K range.

Strongly consider Caris Levert (FD $6700 DK $7000) who’s really turned it on as of late.

Small Forward

Mikal Bridges FD - $6000 DK - $5200
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 30.37 DK - 29.04
With Kelly Oubre out of the mix the Suns have had no issue running Mikal Bridges some of the most minutes in the league. Dude’s played an average of 38 minutes per game over the last four and put up double-digit points in each of the them. The price is up a little and my only concern is that he’s still not seeing a tremendous amount of shots in this offense. But another usage guy in DeAndre Ayton is out of the mix for Phoenix and that should mean at least another slight bump in expectation. Bridges has a higher floor because of the projected minutes and this is a good matchup against the Trailblazers.

T.J. Warren FD - $6700 DK - $6000
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 34.1 DK - 33.8
With Jeremy Lamb already out leaving more minutes on the wing, plus the prospect of one or both of Brogdon and Oladipo out on Friday, we could be looking at a lot of minutes and usage for T.J. Warren. In closer games he’s already playing 36-40 minutes and taken 18 or more shots in two of the last three. He has 30-point upside when the volume is there and the minutes means he can chip in just enough along the stat line in assists and rebounds to not get totally buried if the shot isn’t falling. Even if Oladipo played, I’d be fine running Warren here because the former isn’t a candidate to play a lot of minutes regardless.

Power Forward

Trey Lyles FD - $5200 DK - $5100
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 28.61 DK - 29.12
The last game against Charlotte was bad for Lyles, no doubt about that. But the two previous games without Aldridge saw him putting up 20 points in each with six and nine rebounds respectively. The plan for the Spurs, being so short on bigs with both LMA and Jakob Poeltl out, has been to play Lyles a lot of minutes, averaging 37 minutes per game over the last three. That gives him a solid enough floor to play in cash games at these prices.

Aaron Gordon FD - $7100 DK - $8600
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 35.64 DK - 36.31
When they played last week, Gordon dropped a convenient triple-double with 17 points, 11 assists and 12 rebounds. The last couple of games (with an injury thrown in there) haven’t been as good, but that’s kept the price in check on FanDuel at least. The DraftKings’ price is a little out of bounds. I’m fine running Gordon back on this slate especially with Evan Fournier off the court for the Magic. He has a very high minutes’ floor and the Magic have really shortened their rotations in the short term.

If Luka Doncic has to sit this one out, then Kristaps Porzingis (FD $9400 DK $9300) instantly becomes one of the best plays on the slate. Honestly, considering some of the recent performance he might just be a cash game play regardless.

With DeAndre Ayton out for the foreseeable future we could get a Cheick Diallo (FD $3700 DK $3200) sighting on Friday. Of course, the Suns also have Aron Baynes, but the latter got a DNP-CD last game so it’s a little unclear which way Phoenix takes things. But even 20-25 minutes out of Diallo would make him a value at these prices.

Center

Nikola Vucevic FD - $8400 DK - $8900
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 45.49 DK - 47.35
In a close game against the Heat on Wednesday, Vuce played a whopping 40 minutes and finished with 22 points and 16 rebounds. The increase in minutes has been something of a theme for the Magic center over the last couple of weeks running for 34 or more in six of the last eight games. On Friday he’ll get a Timberwolves team that can give it up on defense. He played them last week and went for 28 points on 22 shots. The usage was insane the Minnesota doesn’t have much in the way of competent big defenders. Vuce is an excellent value on both sites, but especially FanDuel. I think we see high ownership given the context and the increase in minutes.

Jonas Valanciunas FD - $7500 DK - $7400
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 40.58 DK - 42.56
I do think that the plan in Memphis, in close games, is to play Jonas something like 30 minutes per game. The issue over the last two is that the Grizzlies have just blown the doors off the Nets and Hawks, winning by 39 in each game. Even with limited run (26 and 25 minutes, Jonas had 16 and 15 rebounds respectively giving him an average of 19 boards per game over the last four games. You read that correctly. He’s just dominating the glass. If they can keep things close (either way) against the Mavs then I think we are still buying low on big Val.

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