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FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Thursday, 2/27/20
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Point Guard
Aaron Holiday FD - $4200 DK - $4800
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 27.85 DK - 28.83
Malcolm Brogdon FD - $5900 DK - $7300
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 37.83 DK - 39.22
Oladipo is questionable here, and his return would obviously sour the deal on Holiday in particular. Even if he returns, though, I think you can run Malcolm Brogdon out there. The price has come down on FD as a result of a couple of tough DFS performances, but the discerning DFS eye knows that this has just created an opportunity for us. The Pacers' last two games have been decided by a combined 85 points, and while Vegas sees this as a 9.5 point game in its own right I think you should assume that the Pacers play their full run here. Brogdon is an auto include on FanDuel in any format at these prices, and Holiday might wind up being the play of the day if Dipo sits.
Chris Paul FD - $7400 DK - $7900
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 39.39 DK - 39.88
CP3 typifies a certain kind of pick you need to make tonight, where you're going to wind up with a decent number of plays that are solid but unexciting. Paul has averaged roughly 5x fantasy points per dollar on his FD price this season, and is playing 33-34 minutes in close games right now. He and SGA have really found a groove together, and both are thriving in the current offense. The Kings are a tougher match-up than they've been in the past, but they are still allowing the 12th most fantasy points per minute to opposing PGs this season. Like I said - this is solid, if unspectacular.
Also considered: De'Aaron Fox on a cheap price tag going the other way.
Shooting Guard
Josh Richardson FD - $5200 DK - $5300
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 29.78 DK - 29.97
It's the second half of a back to back, but with Ben Simmons still out of the picture Richardson is firmly on the list of guys who are just under-priced right now. He's playing up to 38 minutes in close games, and while he's not the first option on this offense he really doesn't need to be on a $5k price tag with Simmons (and likely Embiid) out. The Sixers could absolutely roll the Knicks here, but on a four game slate with plenty of blowout risk I don't think you can fade the Sixers completely.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander FD - $7200 DK - $7400
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 34.28 DK - 34.28
Running DFS plays into the Kings isn't what it used to be, and SGA is mostly fairly priced at this point. So why list him so highly here? His floor. He's averaged a hair under 5x points per dollar on these prices all season long, and while Sacramento is basically a league average match-up at this point, SGA seems to be on a sustainable upswing. We always want to be cautious when "known" quantities start performing better out of nowhere, but our model suggests that rebounding gains can often be legit since a lot of guard rebounding is effort based. SGA has averaged 11 boards a game in his last three, and even if you split the difference between that and his season averages he's a perfectly serviceable DFS option here.
Also considered: With LeBron out, I think you can consider both Danny Green and Avery Bradley.
Small Forward
Tobias Harris FD - $7000 DK - $7500
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 37.46 DK - 38.37
Harris saw 80% cash game ownership on a slightly lower price last night, but given that we're looking at a 4 game slate and a similarly good spot against the Knicks tonight. Harris is pretty clearly a 40 fantasy point a night guy with Simmons (and likely Embiid) sidelined, and only the potential blowout risk could scare you away from this situation. Me? I'll be cashing in on this price and opportunity mismatch.
T.J. Warren FD - $5600 DK - $6000
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 34.02 DK - 33.7
Warren gets the same treatment as Brogdon, in my mind. Yes, he's hurt by Oladipo potentially returning here, but with the Pacers not playing a normal game in their last few his price has come down to very attractive levels. Even if Oladipo returns, Warren was excellent in the last two games Oladipo played, posting FanDuel totals of 49.1 and 54.9 against New York and Milwaukee. I love him against Portland's aging wings here.
Also considered: Gallo, for the same reasons as SGA and Chris Paul above.
Power Forward
Anthony Davis FD - $10800 DK - $10300
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 63.9 DK - 63.46
Kyle Kuzma FD - $4100 DK - $3900
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 28.05 DK - 29.2
Anthony Davis will see close to 100% ownership with LeBron out, so I'm not going to belabor the point about him here. It's interesting with the Lakers, though, because after AD it's sort of anybody's show. The last time LeBron missed AD missed as well, but Kuzma played 40 minutes in that game and got 25 shots in the air. At these price tags it's going to be hard to get away. That is, unless...
Al Horford FD - $4800 DK - $5200
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 30.16 DK - 30.06
If you're playing on FanDuel, you're going to have to leave one of Davis, Kuzma, and Horford out. And that's pretty rough. After Embiid left Wednesday's game Horford played 34 minutes and put together 31.5 fantasy points. With Simmons AND Embiid out, there is just an unprecedented amount of usage to go around. Horford should do well against New York's bigs, and I'd love to see him in any lineup of mine. If you get the sense that Kuz and Davis are going to be the chalk cash game options, Horford is a great big tournament pivot.
Also considered: Draymond Green, particularly since this game should be closer with LeBron's absence.
Center
Myles Turner FD - $6000 DK - $5200
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 30.49 DK - 29.11
Center is pretty brutal tonight, so I don't mind going a little cheaper here in Turner. He's fresh off of a game where he flashed his unrivaled points per dollar upside, dropping 10 defensive stats against the hapless Charlotte interior in just 27 minutes of play. While he won't have his way to that degree against Portland, the fact remains that he's severely underpriced relative to his upside, and that's probably enough on a slate with such a lack of center depth. For Whiteside's flashy block numbers, he's actually a pretty indifferent post defender, and Portland has yielded the 6th most fantasy points per game to opposing centers this season. I think Turner is a fine option in any format.
The rest: It gets even weirder after Turner. Some people will talk themselves into Kyle O'Quinn and his points per minute prowess. Others will find room to pay up for Whiteside. After that, things really fall off a cliff. Adams is too expensive. Things are too crowded in Golden State. The Lakers, Knicks, and Kings barely field the position for DFS purposes. Proceed with caution here.
