Brooks Koepka plays his shot from the ninth tee during the final round of the U.S. Open Golf Championship, Sunday, June 17, 2018, in Southampton, N.Y. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)
Chris will be bringing you weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. Want more? He also provides a cheatsheet with stats, course history, current form, player write-ups for cash and GPP, a customizable model, and much more.
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After a pit stop in Mexico for the second World Golf Championship fo the season, the PGA Tour will begin the four-event Florida swing in Palm Beach Gardens with The Honda Classic. I mentioned last year about the weaker field at this event with it being sandwiched between a WGC event and the Arnold Palmer Invitational. We get a similar situation this year as the field is a bit weaker at the top with Brooks Koepka(#3) the only player currently ranked inside the Top 10 Official World Golf Rankings teeing it up this week.
The PGA National Champion Course has hosted this event going back to 2007 so there is plenty of course history trends to look at this week. The course itself is a Par 70 that is posted at 7,140 yards on the scorecard and is annually one of the toughest tests on Tour. Over the last five years, PGA National has ranked Top 5 in difficulty(stroke average) four times with a winning score reaching double digits below par just once. We are also back to a 36-hole cut this week which will include the Top 65 & ties with the past five cutlines being above par(+3, +6, +1, +4, +5).
One of the things we will be hearing a ton about this week is the Bear Trap which consists of Holes #15, #16, and #17 which make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches on Tour. That is not the only tough stretch on this beastly course, however, as holes #5, #6, and #7 are also a daunting task and ranked 1st, 5th, & 7th hardest last year(Bear Trap ranked 6th, 11th, & 10th hardest).
The fairways are fairly tight here but the biggest defense that forces a lot of players into a "less than driver" strategy off the tee is the thick, gnarly rough. This has led to a fairways hit % average over 60% the last five years which puts emphasis on the approach shots and especially with long irons. With an average GIR under 65% in that same five-year sample size, a strong around the green game will also be needed to avoid the big numbers which lurk at every turn. Combine all of this with a strong weight on Bogey Avoidance and Par 4 Scoring and you have a strong model to get started.
With all of that in mind, let's get into the picks.
PGA National (Champion Course)
Par 70 - 7,140 Yards
Greens - Bermuda
**Click the image above to see a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**
When breaking down the top stats I use a combination of my own cheatsheet and the tools over at FantasyNational.com.
Gary Woodland
World Golf Ranking (#17)
Vegas Odds (20/1)
Draftkings ($10,300)
FanDuel ($11,300)
I am going to leadoff with Woodland who ranks #1 in my model on the sheet adn comes in fourth in pricing in this somewhat weaker field, at least at the top. Looking at his course history, he has been up and down here but made the cut in six straight trips and has a runner-up in 2017 and a T6 back in 2011. Where he really stands out is the current form and stats as he is coming off a T12 at the WGC Mexico and has three Top 10's in seven starts this season. Statistically, he ranks(in this field over the last 24 rounds) 26th in SG: Approach, 15th in Par 4 Scoring, 4th in Bogey Avoidance, 4th in Birdie or Better, and 4th in SG: total on difficult courses. All things considered, he is a core play for me in all formats.
Daniel Berger
World Golf Ranking (#123)
Vegas Odds (33/1)
Draftkings ($8,900)
FanDuel ($10,600)
Since reaching the Top 20 in World Golf rankings back in mid-2017, it has been a steady decline for Berger who actually sat outside the Top 150 to start the 2020 portion of the season. The good news for him and his fans is that he is trending up in a big way coming into this event off back to back Top 10's(WMPO, Pebble Beach) and has made the cut in seven of eight events on the season with five Top 25 finishes. He now returns to PGA National where he has made the cut in three of his four trips(T36, T29, MC, MC, T2) and with his form, I see another Top 25 this year with upside of another Top 10 as well.
Brooks Koepka
World Golf Ranking (#3)
Vegas Odds (11/1)
Draftkings ($11,200)
FanDuel ($12,000)
While I love the two players I just mentioned in cash games, there is no way we can leave Brooks off our GPP player pools this week, despite it not being a major(lol). He is the only Top 10 player in the field and is somehow cheaper than Tommy Fleetwood in this field. Sure the form hasn't been there in his two PGA Tour events this season(MC @ Shriners, T43 @ Genesis) but he has the game to win anywhere, anytime. The current stats model(L24 rounds) goes back in to last season but he does stand out in a few areas as he ranks 4th in Par 4 scoring, 5th in Birdie or Better, 10th in SG: Off the Tee, and 1st in SG: Putting on Bermuda greens. There is more than enough value in the $7K and lower range to lots of exposure to Koepka in your GPP builds.
Harris English
World Golf Ranking (#194)
Vegas Odds (60/1)
Draftkings ($7,800)
FanDuel ($9,800)
English is most definitely on the radar this week sitting #4 in my model as he checks almost every box. It starts with form as he is coming off a T16 at WMPO and has now made the cut in eight of nine events this season and flashed a ton of upside(for the price) with four Top 10's and five Top 25 finishes. He now returns to the Honda Classic where he has had success in the past finishing T12 last year, T33 in 2018 and has made four of six cuts in his career with both missed cuts coming by just one shot. While he as struggled around the green lately(77th in the field last 24 rounds), he has thrived in other areas ranking 21st in SG: Approach, 7th in Par 4 scoring, 2nd in Bogey Avoidance, and 39th in SG: Putting. Speaking of putting, he also ranks 13th in this field in putting on Bermuda greens(Last 24 rounds). All in all, he is a top mid-range play for me in all formats.
Wyndham Clark
World Golf Ranking (#162)
Vegas Odds (66/1)
Draftkings ($7,600)
FanDuel ($9,600)
Clark has been very streaky to start the season(made 6 of 11 cuts missing three in a row twice) but we are catching him at the right time as he comes in off three straight made cuts and back to back Top 20 finishes. The inconsistency comes from the shaky ball striking(127th in the field this season) but the good news is that he has been terrific everywhere else ranking 28th in SG: Around the Green, 18th in Bogey Avoidance, 32nd in SG: Total on difficult courses, and 12th in SG: Putting on Bermuda greens over the last 24 rounds. His game led him to a Top 10 finish here last year adn while he doesn't quite need that to pay off at his price, that upside is most definitely there. I will have exposure in all formats.
Talor Gooch
World Golf Ranking (#167)
Vegas Odds (90/1)
Draftkings ($7,200)
FanDuel ($8,600)
A stars and scrubs strategy is definitely not out of the question this week with all the value as 14 of the Top 25 players in my model on the sheet are $7,500 or cheaper on DraftKings. I will start with Gooch who has been very consistent since missing the cut at the season-opening Greenbrier as he has not only made 10 straight cuts but has added four Top 25's and two Top 10's including in his last event, the Genesis Invitational. He missed the cut here at the Honda in his first trip in 2018 but rebounded in a big way last year with a T20 finish. Combine all that with the fact he is solid all-around in terms of my stats model, he is in play in all formats for me this week.
Matthew NeSmith
World Golf Ranking (#202)
Vegas Odds (80/1)
Draftkings ($7,200)
FanDuel ($8,900)
After starting the season with four missed cuts in five events, NeSmith has been very consistent for fantasy making seven straight cuts including four Top 25 finishes, one of which was a T6 at the Puerto Rico Open last week. The consistency comes from a solid all-around game as he ranks(in this field) 12th in SG: Total, 40th in SG: Ball Striking(73rd OTT, 35th APP), and 7th in SG: Putting on the season. Not only does he have a hot putter but also ranks 15th in this field on Bermuda Greens and 16th in birdie or better % over the last 24 rounds. This is his first trip to PGA National but for how well he is playing and in this field, the price feels too cheap making him a core play in all formats.
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