Kevin Harvick (4) drives out of Turn 4 during the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series auto race at Phoenix International Raceway, Sunday, Nov. 13, 2016, in Avondale, Ariz. (AP Photo/Ralph Freso)
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After an overnight delay and insane finish at the Daytona 500, the NASCAR Cup Series moves on to Las Vegas for the Pennzoil 400 and start of the "real" season. One note before we get into race and track is that while Ryan Newman appears to be making a speedy recovery from the crash on Monday, it will be Ross Chastain stepping in and driving the #6 this weekend in the 38-car field.
Las Vegas Motor Speedway is a mile and a half, D-shaped oval intermediate and is considered steep with 20 degrees of progressive banking in the turns. From a fantasy perspective, the biggest thing to realize is that the strategy is completely different from Daytona. We were heavy on almost any driver starting back in the pack at Daytona for maximum exposure to place differential. While place differential is still important(largely dependant on qualifying), we have more laps and a much higher correlation between starting to finish position due to it being much harder to pass on intermediate tracks than it is on superspeedway's. This leads us to a strong dominator strategy which includes laps led and fast laps(Draftkings only) and this track has been a two dominator track as seven of the last 10 races here have seen two drivers lead 50 or more laps. Looking at that same 10 race sample size, there has been a driver lead 100+ laps in six of those races. For the most part, we will be looking at drivers starting near the front for our dominator targets but that isn't always the case as we saw Joey Logano lead 105 laps last fall after starting back in the 22nd starting spot.
For updated practice and qualifying data, be sure to check my sheet throughout the weekend with all my core targets posted and ranked as well. With that, let's take a look at the track and then dig into this week's core plays in each price range.
Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Track - 1.5 Mile D-Shaped Oval Intermediate
20° of Banking in Turns 1 & 2
Kevin Harvick
Harvick is my top driver at the top this week for multiple reasons starting with him being one of just two drivers to finish Top 5 at both Vegas races last year with the new rules package. He also leads all drivers with 363 laps lad over the last two years at the track(four races) and finished final practice ranking 4th in lap time and posted the fastest 10-lap average. He is starting 3rd on Sunday and has a great shot at picking up a ton of dominator points. In pay in all formats.
Alex Bowman
Bowman also had success here in 2019 with the new package finishing 6th and 11th and had the fifth-best average DraftKings points per race on the intermediate tracks(13 races). What really stands out this week is the practice speeds as he ranked 5th/10th in lap times and 2nd/4th in 10-lap averages. I like his value a bit better on FanDuel but is easily my top PTS/$ this week.
Aric Almirola
Almirola stood out early in the weekend as he led all drivers in opening practice in lap times and in 10-alp averages. He followed that up ranking 3rd in final practice and 10th in 10-lap averages. Due to rain, the field was set by owner's points so Almirola and the #10 SHR car will start 14th giving him some place differential upside in a car that appears to have Top 5 upside.
Ty Dillon
Going down into the value range, Ty Dillon stands out this week starting 24th due to qualifying being rained out. If they did run qualifying, I am guessing he would have started inside the top 20 considering he was 3rd and 16th in the two practices and 6th/12th in 10-lap aveages. At these prices, Dillon is an excellent play in all formats.
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