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Daily Fantasy NASCAR Preview & Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel - Daytona 500
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Daytona 500
The long offseason came to an end last week as the NASCAR haulers rolled into Daytona Beach last week. It all got started with the wreck-fest that was the Busch Clash last Sunday and that was also preceded by Daytona 500 qualifying which set the front row for the big race. The track was then quiet for a few days(for Cup cars) before last night's Duel Qualifying races which set the rest of the field for Sunday's race.
Before getting into the picks, let's break down the track and some strategies we can use for daily fantasy. First of all, Daytona International Speedway is a 2.5-mile Superspeedway with 31 degrees of banking in the corners. The track produces some of the fastest speeds in NASCAR which is why engines are equipped with a tapered spaced(formerly a restrictor plate) and a larger rear spoiler to help keep the cars from taking off like an airplane. This style of racing also leads to large packs of cars drafting off each other which in turn leads to some different strategies we don't see on non-superspeedway tracks. Team and manufacturer alliances really come into play here and that has already been huge as we saw Denny Hamlin push Erik Jones to victory in the Clash, then we saw Aric Almirola push Joey Logano to victory in Duel #1 and a Chevy vs. Ford battle in Duel #2 with William Byron coming out on top.
For fantasy, this means stacking in our lineups to possibly capitalize on a strong run from one team or manufacturer. You aren't just going to blindly stack any team, however, as other strategies come into play as well and the most important of those being place differential. The draftings aspect of superspeedway racing makes it much easier to drive a car from the back of the field which immediately has us targeting drivers starting back in the pack, especially on DraftKings, where those bonus points are worth double than they are on FanDuel. Looking at the last three years here at Daytona(six races), the Top 10 highest scoring starting positions(average DraftKings scoring) are all outside the Top 25 with six of those starting positions outside the Top 30 starting positions(data via Fantasy Racing Cheatsheet).
This doesn't mean we should completely throw out dominator points as there were multiple drivers to lead 30+ laps in both races last year and multiple drivers with 20+ laps in the two years(four races) prior to that. What we need to keep in mind with dominator points is that they are rendered almost useless if that driver does not finish with positive place differential as there are only 200 laps and we rarely see anyone over 50 laps led. The winner of the Daytona 500 has also come from a Top 10 starting position in six of the last eight but from a Top 5 starting position just twice in that time.
The biggest thing to understand about Superspeedway racing is that there is a TON of variance and brings almost every driver into play. Leaving more salary on the table than usual is definitely in play this week and that doesn't necessarily mean go into lineup construction with that in mind. It means if you build a lineup you absolutely love and there happens to be $1,000 or more leftover, don't sweat it.
With all that in mind, let's take a look at the track, last six winners, and get into my core plays for the Daytona 500.
Track - 2.5 Mile Superspeedway
31° of Banking
Last Six Winners at Daytona
- 2019 Summer Race - Justin Haley(started 34th)
- 2019 Daytona 500 - Denny Hamlin(started 10th)
- 2018 Summer Race - Erik Jones(started 29th)
- 2018 Daytona 500 - Austin Dillon(started 14th)
- 2017 Summer Race - Ricky Stenhouse Jr.(started 6th)
- 2017 Daytona 500 - Kurt Busch(started 8th)
Targets
Denny Hamlin/Kyle Busch
I mentioned stacking above in the intro and will start with one of my favorites. Despite the fact Toyota only has five cars in this race, it is tough to ignore Hamlin and Busch starting 21st and 28th respectively. If I had to choose just one, it would be Hamlin hands down as he has been terrific here winning two of the last four Daytona 500's and he also has Top 5 finishes in five of the last six Daytona 500's. He checks every box and is my top play if paying up this week. As for Busch, he has won every big race in the sport but this one and came oh so close last year finishing one spot behind Hamlin. He has terrific place differential upside starting 28th and I could definitely see another 1-2 finish this year which would easily have both crush value for fantasy.
Ryan Newman/Chris Buescher
I am going to head down into the $7K range for my next stack. Chris Buescher jumps into the #17 for Roush Fenway Racing in 2020 after posting an impressive 17.8 average finish a year ago in the #37 for JTG Daugherty. He was up and down at Daytona last year(17th, 37th) but before that had Top 5's in both races in 2018 and a Top 10 in the summer race in 2017. The biggest thing here is that he will start 19th so another Top 10 would give him enough place differential points to crush his salary and I think he even pays off his low $7K price tag with an 11th-15th place finish as well.
As for Newman, he is a lot riskier starting 7th on Sunday but has been one of the most consistent drivers at this 2.5-mile superspeedway lately with Top 10 finishes in four of his last five races here. It may take a few laps for these drivers to get close enough to work together but I like the most is that they should both be fairly low owned with the potential to be in the optimal lineup.
Chase Elliott
If we are playing the place differential game, we cannot overlook Chase Elliott who finished 13th in his Duel race and will start 25th on Sunday. Daytona has definitely not been friendly to Chase as he has finished outside the Top 30 in three of the last four races here and 14th is his career-best in eight trips. I am willing to overlook this with his starting position which is only the second time in the last six Daytona races he has started outside of 7th. More good news as the Chevy camp has the most cars on the track on Sunday and showed they can work together very well when lined up.
Brendan Gaughan
One of the drivers who will most definitely be taking ownership away from Buescher and Newman is Brendan Gaughan entering his final season(so he says). He will be racing in all four Superspeedway races and is easily one of the top values this week, especially on FanDuel at minimum price. It starts with the place differential upside as he will be starting 39th on Sunday and returns to Daytona with seven straight Top 30 finishes including four Top 20's and one Top 10 in that time.
