FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Tuesday, 2/11/20

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Point Guard

Damian Lillard FD - $9800 DK - $10300
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 55.48 DK - 58.24
Since January 15th, or his last 13 games, Dame has been nothing short of extraordinary. In that stretch, which included some games without C.J. McCollum, Lillard has averaged 39 minutes per game and an absurd 39 points, nine assists and five rebounds along with some blocks and steals to boot. Few players have put up this kind of fantasy run and while the price is up, it’s not really up enough. He’ll play the Pelicans who run the third-fastest pace in the league and there’s no secret why this game has the highest total on the slate. Lillard, at sub-$10K will probably be the chalk play on FanDuel.

Lonzo Ball FD - $6700 DK - $7300
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 38.52 DK - 39.89
The Pelicans have been dealing with some injury issues and Brandon Ingram is once again questionable for this game. Ball makes for a fine cash play though considering he produces, fantasy-wise, in a number of different ways. Over his last five games he’s put up double-digit points four times, rebounds twice and assists once (getting close two other times). It’s made for a 11 point, eight rebound, seven assist average with nearly two steals per game. The Blazers don’t defend opposing guards all that well, run a top-11 pace and have the 25th-ranked defense in the league. This is a good spot for Ball and he’s been playing about 37 minutes per game in the short term.

If Demar DeRozan sits this out then Dejounte Murray (FD 5100 DK 5200) would be a very good play.

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Shooting Guard

Zach LaVine FD - $9000 DK - $8200
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 44.71 DK - 46.43
Lavine is coming too cheap on DraftKings facing off against DFS gold in the form of the Wizards. Washington runs a breakneck pace and plays almost no defense so it’s no secret we’re often stacking plays against them. Lavine is coming off a rough, 9-turnover game, against the Sixers in which he also dropped 32 points in 40 minutes. The scoring hadn’t been there for Lavine over the previous five games with the three-point shooting a moderate disaster. He was 3-23 from beyond the arc before putting things back together against Philly. This is a smash spot for the Bulls and if he sees big minutes Lavine should have no problem hitting value.

C.J. McCollum FD - $6400 DK - $6400
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 36.47 DK - 37.56
With Dame’s latest takeover there hasn’t been quite as much usage and fantasy love for McCollum in this Blazer’s scheme. But this matchup still represents such an uptick for opposing players, the minutes are there for CJ and the price has been really dropping because of the recent performance. You aren’t going out on too much of a ledge to roster him in this salary tier and the scoring does give him enough of a floor that he’s unlikely to kill you in an up and down game.

Small Forward

Chandler Hutchison FD - $4600 DK - $4600
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 26 DK - 25.39
Hutchison had a rough game on Sunday against the Sixers, but before that had scored double-digit points in each of the previous two after entering the starting lineup for the Bulls. Even sharing the court with Lavine, the second-year guy is finding enough usage in the offense with 14 and 13 shots respectively in those previous two games. Much as was the case with Lavine, this is just such a fantastic spot for the Bulls against the Wizards and Hutchison represents that lower middle tier value that helps put some lineups together.

Trevor Ariza FD - $4700 DK - $4300
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 25.67 DK - 25.79
Carmelo Anthony FD - $5200 DK - $4900
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 27.9 DK - 28.34
The Blazers are playing incredibly short rotations right now thanks to a lot of injury issues and just a general lack of depth. And that’s why you are seeing a lot of them in the picks on Tuesday with the matchup against the Pelicans. Short of getting ejected and a few blowouts, it sure seems like the plan for Ariza is to play him 37+ minutes a night. He’s low usage when sharing the court with Lillard, CJ and Melo, but the minutes at these prices are just about enough to win the day. He had a huge game on Sunday, buoyed mostly by a monster first half. But this is a game he should be able to knock down some threes and chip in on the defensive end.

Meanwhile, Anthony is still coming pretty cheap on DraftKings, should play minutes in the mid-30’s and has scored in double-digits in three of the last five games. The other two he struggled through rough shooting nights but is still getting up almost 12 attempts per game and more than four attempts from beyond the arc.

Power Forward

LaMarcus Aldridge FD - $7100 DK - $6700
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 38.9 DK - 38.41
Trey Lyles FD - $3500 DK - $3600
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 20.27 DK - 20.75
DeMar DeRozan was a late (late) scratch from the Spurs lineup last night because of back spasms and he’s unlikely to play on Tuesday either. Aldridge goes from a full-season 23% usage rate to 29.% when DDR is off the court. And we got a little fast of that last night when LMA put up 25 shots on his way to a 33 point, six rebound, five assist line in the loss to the Nuggets. This isn’t all that much better of a matchup, but the price doesn’t reflect the increase he gets in opportunity with DeMar off the court.

Lyle is coming cheap because the minutes are wildly inconsistent. He’ll play 30+, then dip below 20, then sometimes land right in between. It’s something of a game of roulette with him which is why the price remains near the minimums even though he’s firmly planted in the starting lineup. But last night, without DDR, he ran 28 minutes finishing with 10 points and seven rebounds. I think he’d be moderately safe in this matchup against a long OKC team.

If Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram sit out again then Derrick Favors (FD $5600 DK $5000) and Nicolo Melli (FD $3600 DK $3800) would become interesting.

Along those same lines, if Zion Williamson (FD 7200 DK 7400) does play without any minutes restriction then he's actually a decent price on both sites as well.

Center

Hassan Whiteside FD - $8800 DK - $8100
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 46 DK - 45.6 Though they are pretty rough on defense, opposing centers have had below league average production against the Pelicans. But the pace of this game and that it should stay close makes Whiteside a higher floor play at the position. He’s logged 20+ rebounds in two of his last four games though he is still prone to some valleys mixed in with the fantasy scoring peaks. What you love to see is the 33+ minutes in six of his last eight games with the Blazers really concentrating the run around their starters.

Steven Adams FD - $5200 DK - $5500
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 32.33 DK - 33.36
Adams is much more a cash play than a GPP one simply because he doesn’t have a tremendous ceiling as the Thunder are currently constructed and playing. He’s out there for 30 or so minutes a game and at times has shown the ability to get into double digit scoring and rebounding, but rarely at the same time. Center is a weaker position on this slate and the price has fallen enough on Adams that I think you can consider him in cash against a Spurs team that’s ranked about league average against opposing centers this season.

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