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FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Thursday 2/6/20
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Point Guard
Elfrid Payton FD - $6700 DK - $7300
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 35.49 DK - 35.1
The Elf is officially off the shelf (sorry), and his mini-Westbrook reign of terror continued with a wild 17/11/15 performance against the Cavaliers on Monday. I think the train is going to stop barreling along at this pace at some point, but I think we get another bite at the apple in this Orlando game. Blowout risk is a nightly concern with the Knicks, but with Payton playing at such a high level they are just 3 point dogs to the Magic at home here. RJ Barrett practiced yesterday, and his return could muddy these waters some, but if Payton starts he gets a full green light for cash games today.
Lonzo Ball FD - $6500 DK - $6900
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 36.18 DK - 37.36
Ball hasn't missed a beat upon Zion's arrival in New Orleans, sitting around 5x points per dollar or better in each of his last five games. He's playing 37+ minute rotations in close games, and given that New Orleans is just a 3.5 point favorite over the Bulls this game rates to be exactly that. The Bulls are essentially a league average match-up in every conceivable way, so we're just going after Ball on his rate alone. I think that suffices for cash game purposes and will happily run him out there tonight.
Shooting Guard
James Harden FD - $11500 DK - $12400
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 65.09 DK - 67.8
Harden's value obviously hinges a great deal on Westbrook's status, but if Russ misses again you can expect 90%+ ownership on him tonight. Even if Westbrook plays, Harden is a tough one to turn down. In the last meeting with the Lakers, Harden played 39 minutes and got to the line 18 times. It didn't all come together in a final stat line, but the opportunity was there, and at the very least we can likely consider the 49 fantasy points he chipped in his floor. If Russ plays, he'll likely be less than 100%, and Harden will obviously be the primary beneficiary.
Evan Fournier FD - $5200 DK - $5600
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 30.05 DK - 31.23
Fournier is in the process of playing 34 minutes and topping 6x points per dollar in a much tougher match-up against the Celtics, so going up against this Knicks team should be a breath of fresh air. If he gets anything like this opportunity tonight, 6x+ should be a breeze and you'll be thrilled to get away from a very tough position without having to spend up too much.
Keep an eye on the Russell Westbrook situation. If he were to sit again Ben McLemore would be a nearly automatic cash game play.
Also considered: Evan Fournier, because you might just need the savings in the SG2 spot.
Small Forward
Giannis Antetokounmpo FD - $11400 DK - $11100
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 57.94 DK - 60.58
The last time Giannis squared off against the 76ers, the Bucks were dealt their fifth loss of the season and Giannis left the court after just 30 minutes of action. As the Bucks try to place their stamp on the Eastern Conference this season, one has to wonder if there might be just a little extra motivation going into this one. It's not like Giannis was bad on a points per minute basis in their last meeting - he topped 48 FanDuel points in just 30 minutes of action and shot 27 times. Philly is one of the few teams in the league that can throw enough size at him to cause him problems, but our system thinks he builds upon his big time usage in their last meeting and puts up a huge fantasy total tonight. Small forward is especially tough tonight, and paying up for Giannis' floor looks pretty tempting.
Marcus Morris FD - $6200 DK - $6400
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 33.29 DK - 34.61
There's no one less fun to root for than Marcus Morris, for a variety of reasons. But DFS makes for unlikely bedfellows, so here we are. While Morris might not be the greatest guy on the block, he is a pretty consistent DFS option when he can get his minutes. He's averaged almost exactly 5x points per dollar on this FanDuel price this season, and while he's very scoring dependent, his shots per game are actually on the rise.
Also considered: Danuel House and Eric Gordon. House has been playing incredible minutes, and if Covington is not ready he should be in line for more once again. Gordon could be a great play, but only if Russell Westbrook sits again.
Power Forward
Zion Williamson FD - $7500 DK - $7700
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 38.65 DK - 39.7
Zion's ownership has been rising as fast as his price, and it seems like a lock that both of those trends will continue after this game. The explosive young superstar will get his best match-up of the season in the Bulls, who somehow rank dead last in fantasy points per minute allowed to both power forwards and centers in spite of playing a dead league average pace. Zion is yet to go off on these prices, but if there were ever a time for him to have his first signature game, this would be it.
Aaron Gordon FD - $6200 DK - $6300
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 33.86 DK - 34.5
Gordon is another guy whose value seems to fluctuate dramatically based on the match-up, both because he loses minutes fast in a blowout and because his effort seems to come and go. Well, right now we seem to be in the midst of an effort upswing, with Gordon grabbing 22 rebounds over his last two contests. He actually presents a very difficult match-up for the Knicks when it comes to his athleticism, and I think he smells some blood in the water in this one. While he might not touch the 7x points per dollar he's hit in each of his previous two games, I view the above projection as his floor here.
Also considered: Anthony Davis, if you can find the money between the couch cushions.
Center
Brook Lopez FD - $5500 DK - $5200
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 30.29 DK - 28.14
The Bucks lean on Lopez more when they need it, and against the size of Philly, you can absolutely say that they'll need it here. He played 32 minutes the last two times these teams met, and while he didn't provide any great value, it was a tough game for the Bucks as a whole. Lopez is basically an opportunity play - if he is going to play 24 minutes he's terrible, but if he can top 30 he can be excellent. He's averaged 39 fantasy points in his last two games, and if he hits 80% of that you're taking it to the bank.
After Lopez, things get a little bit terrifying. Our system would have you dream on Embiid (who was great the last time he faced the Bucks), or Vucevic in a nice match-up with the Knicks, but I'm feeling well persuaded that center is just not a position you can effectively pay up at tonight. If more value opens up, though, I could see Embiid making cash game consideration.
