Chris will be bringing you weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. Want more? He also provides a cheatsheet with stats, course history, current form, player write-ups for cash and GPP, a customizable model, and much more. You can get access to the sheet in the member's chatroom.
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After a four-day party in Phoenix, the PGA Tour heads back to California for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. This means we are back to a multi-course rotation with three being used this week much like the Desert Classic. Each player/pro-am partner will get one round on each of Pebble Beach GL, Monterey Peninsula CC, and SpyGlass Hill GC with a cut of Top 60 and ties being made after the third round on Saturday. The final round will be played on Pebble Beach GL.
The field is led Dustin Johnson(#5) and Patrick Cantlay(#7) who are the only two players teeing up this week ranked Top 10 in the World. Overall, the field is much weaker than it was last season but a large part of that was players using this event as a tune-up for the 2019 US Open at Pebble Beach in June. One thing is for sure, no matter the field strength, this is a frustrating event to track either on TV or online. Pebble Beach is the only course of the three with Shot Tracker and watching the telecast is painful as it comes with constant sub-par swings from celebs combined with constant shots of the ocean and interviews of CEO's. I suggest plugging a lineup in and tuning in Sunday for the final round.
Looking at the courses, all three come in under 7,000 yards and from a complete tournament standpoint has seen fairways hit and greens in regulation around 70% or more in both areas. This easier setup has led to an average winning score of -19 over the last five years. Pebble Beach has played as the hardest of the three in each of the last two years and in three of the last six but the gap between it and SpyGlass Hill has not been very much. What has stood out is that Monterey Peninsula has played as the easiest of the three in five of the last six years, with a fairly wide margin in a couple of those events. This will be an area we can attack in terms of Showdown lineup construction in the first three rounds. Like the Desert Classic, it may also be worth playing some lineup stacks with players playing Pebble both Saturday and possibly Sunday(if they make cut).
From a statistical standpoint, I am weighing Strokes Gained: Approach considerably higher than Off the Tee and also adding in some Strokes Gained: Around the Green/Scrambling as the greens on Pebble Beach are very small. The greens on all three courses are Poa Annua grass so I will also be looking at some trends in my custom model using Fantasy National Golf Club.
If you are using my sheet and looking to learn more, make sure to check out the tutorial video showing all the features on sheet and how to create your own copy and customize your own model. Hit me up in chat anytime for help as well. With all that, let's get into the picks.
When breaking down the top stats I use a combination of my own cheatsheet and the tools over at FantasyNational.com.
Patrick Cantlay
World Golf Ranking (#8)
Vegas Odds (12/1)
Draftkings ($10,900)
FanDuel ($12,000)
Despite some average, at best, course history(T35/T48 in two appearances & T21 at the 2019 US Open) here at Pebble Beach, Patrick Cantlay sits #1 in both my long term and short term models this week. It starts with the form as he enters with back to back Top 5's on the PGA Tour(4th - Tournament of Champions, 2nd - Shriners) and leads all golfers in this field with an average of 103.3 fantasy points per event since the start of the season. Looking at the short term stats model(last 24 rounds), Cantlay also ranks 5th in SG: Approach, 10th in Par 4 scoring, and 2nd in both Opportunities and Birdies gained. I think he breaks through here at Pebble this week and is one of the two options in the $10K+ range I would consider building around in cash games as well.
Paul Casey
World Golf Ranking (#20)
Vegas Odds (20/1)
Draftkings ($10,500)
FanDuel ($11,700)
The second player I am targeting in all formats in the $10K+ range is Paul Casey and while that price feels a little steep, it is relative to the weak field and I am not worried at all. He has also been terrific in this event finishing T8 in 2018, T2 last year and followed that up with a T21 at the US Open. His form doesn't jump off the page so far this season(T17, T38, T19, T21) but looks very similar to his form the last two years before this event and he also comes in 4th in my short term model ranking 6th in SG: Approach, 16th in Par 4 scoring, 7th in Par 5 scoring, 4th in Opp Gained, and 28th in BoB gained. All things considered, he is a great play in all formats this week.
Russell Knox
World Golf Ranking (#111)
Vegas Odds (45/1)
Draftkings ($8,600)
FanDuel ($10,000)
Back on the Knox train again this week and while the price is trending in the wrong direction it still feels low considering he hits on every single area in my model. He missed the cut here back in 2016, took a year off, then returned to post back to back Top 15's in the last two years. On top of that, he has been incredibly consistent this season making nine straight cuts going back to October and also enters the week with back to back Top 25's at the WMPO(T16) and Farmers Insurance Open(T21). His short term stats also jump off the page as he ranks(in this field) 4th in SG: Approach, 7th in Par 4 Scoring, 12th in SG: Putting, 17th in Opp Gained and 24th in Birdie or Better Gained. At these prices in this field, I will once again be overweight on Knox in all formats.
Jum Furyk
World Golf Ranking (#73)
Vegas Odds (60/1)
Draftkings ($7,800)
FanDuel ($9,600)
At 49 years of age, the winning upside is almost gone for Furyk but that does not mean we can't load up in cash games, especially at these prices. He returns to Pebble Beach with tremendous course history having made the cut in 14 of 15 career trips and two of his best finishes have come in the last three trips(T14, T7). He also played three times in the fall season finishing T17, T55, T23 and comes into this week having gained strokes on the approach in 11 straight and 18 of his last 19 events. Point of the story is that he makes cuts, especially on Pebble and you should lock him into your cash game lineups this week.
Matthew NeSmith
World Golf Ranking (#241)
Vegas Odds (160/1)
Draftkings ($7,100)
FanDuel ($8,400)
NeSmith got off to a slow start to his rookie season missing four of his first five cuts but has rebounded in a big way making five straight cuts coming into this week with two Top 20's and no finish worse than T48. He has struggled around the greens but more than made up for it with the putter gaining strokes in six straight events and also helping the cause has been the iron game as he has gained 9.3 strokes on approach in his last four events. I don't think he comes into Pebble Beach and breaks out with a T10 or even Top 20 finish but I am going to ride the form and see him making the cut and is a top candidate in the low $7K range for cash games helping us get up to Casey, Cantlay or DJ.
Doc Redman
World Golf Ranking (#153)
Vegas Odds (175/1)
Draftkings ($6,700)
FanDuel ($7,900)
You guessed it. I am back on the Doc Redman train. He has not been shy from traveling this season playing 12 events already, making the cut in nine of them and picking up three Top 25's along the way. His success has come in the hands of his elite ball-striking as he enters the week ranked Top 30 in SG: Tee to Green, SG: Off the Tee, and SG: Approach. The issue with his upside is the putter which has been wildly inconsistent(142nd on Tour) but the good news in that department is that he has gained strokes putting in four of his last six events(with shottracker). In this event, with three rounds before cut, stars and scrubs is on the table even in cash games and Redman fits the model well for me.
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