Brooklyn Nets guard Kyrie Irving reacts from the bench during the first half of an exhibition NBA basketball game against the Sesi/Franca Basketball Club, Friday, Oct. 4, 2019, in New York. (AP Photo/Mary Altaffer)
While we have 10 games on the Saturday schedule, nine of them make-up the night slate. The one omission is a matchup between the Clippers and T'Wolves and we'll go ahead and fade that one altogether. That leaves a ton of great options on the board, so, we'll do our best to mix the best values plays with the correct studs. With that in mind, let's get into this slate.
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Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 48.93 DK - 50.06
Irving is in the midst of a monster game on Friday against the Chicago Bulls and it's hard to overlook anytime anyone faces the Wizards. The simple fact is, Washington ranks dead-last in points allowed, defensive efficiency and fantasy points surrendered to opposing point guards. That's a truly frightening against a guy like Irving, with the stud guard averaging 49 fantasy points per game for the season. In that Friday game, Irving finished with 54 points, five rebounds and five assists and it's scary to think that he's coming in with that sort of momentum in the best matchup possible.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 25.63 DK - 26.36
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 22.69 DK - 24.19
I really thought that Brunson would be the guy with Luka Doncic going down but Barea getting a start on Friday would indicate otherwise. In that game, Brunson had seven points, three rebounds and three assists across 20 minutes off the bench while Barea had 11 points, five rebounds and nine assists as a starter. That means we have to go with Barea as the superior choice because he's also the cheaper option as well. With that in mind, if Brunson gets the start here, pivot to him. The reason we like these two is because Doncic's 36 percent usage rate is gone along with his 30 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists. That's a ton of usage for these PGs to makeup and we have to love that against a 29th-ranked Hawks defense.
If Frank Ntilikina remains out with Elfrid Payton suspended, Dennis Smith Jr would be worth a shot.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 39.6 DK - 42.19
Russell has truly established himself as the go-to guy in this offense and it's really no surprise with Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson both injured. That has allowed Russell to lead the way with a 31.7 percent usage rate which actually ranks Top-10 in the NBA. That monster usage has led to spectacular fantasy production too, with Russell averaging 40.6 DraftKings points per game for the year. His recent form is even better, scoring at least 35 fantasy points in seven-straight while averaging 43 DK points per game in that span. Not to mention, Russell gets to face a Cleveland team who ranks 29th in defensive efficiency in what's expected to be a close game.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 26.58 DK - 27.71
Bogdanovic has taken over starting duties with Buddy Hield being shifted to the bench and it's made him so much more fantasy relevant. While he's only started the last four games, Bogdanovic has been rolling for nearly a month now. In fact, he's averaging 24 DraftKings points per game across 29 minutes over his last 12 games played. That looks even better when you consider his 30.4 point average in his last two starts, despite playing two tough defenses. That's certainly what we have again here opposing the Lakers but we can't overlook that sort of production from a $5,000 player.
Donovan Mitchell is coming off one of his worst games of the season but it's lowered his price to an intriguing number against a 26th-ranked Portland defense.
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 56.23 DK - 59.35
It's hard to overlook the floor that a guy like King James provides. We're talking about a dude who has at least 38 DraftKings points in all 45 games played this season en route 55.5 fantasy points per game. That makes it surprising that his price is barely cracking five-figures and it makes James a good play on pretty much every slate. That sort of floor becomes even more likely in a matchup like this, with the Kings sitting 19th in defensive efficiency. That was crystal clear when James dropped 58 DK points in their one meeting earlier this season.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 28.29 DK - 30.01
Hardaway has one of the highest upsides of any cheap player on this slate and he's simply one of the only guys who has legitimate 8X upside. The reason for that is because Doncic's 36 percent usage rate and 21 shots are out of the lineup, leaving THJ as the top-scoring option behind Porzingis. If you look at the five games where Doncic was injured, Hardaway scored at least 23 DK points in four of them while averaging 32.2 fantasy points per game in those four outings. What we really love is that he attempted at least 17 shots in all four of those fixtures, indicating just how valuable his scoring is with Doncic out. We obviously like that he's facing an Atlanta team that surrenders the most fantasy points to opposing SFs as well.
T.J. Warren remains a nice value in the $6,000-range against a putrid Knicks defense.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 39.2 DK - 38.83
Dallas players are a common trend in this article and KP is certainly one of the biggest beneficiaries of Doncic being out. With him off the floor, Porzingis has a 29 percent usage rate while averaging 1.34 DK points per minute. In the four games that Doncic missed and the one he got injured, Porzingis dropped at least 44 DraftKings points in all of them while averaging 50 fantasy points per outing. He also provided 35 points, 12 rebounds and two steals against the Rockets on Friday, keeping that run rolling. That doesn't even take into consideration that Dwight Powell is out too, opening all of the rebounding for KP as well. There's some chance Zinger misses this one on the second half of a back to back, but if he does play he's in a terrific spot against an Atlanta team who sits 28th in defensive efficiency and 29th in points allowed.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 36.88 DK - 35.88
Green has had a volatile season with this new team around him but it appears that he's starting to find his rhythm. The one direct correlation with success is competitive ballgames, with Green's only duds coming in blowouts. If you look at his last nine games. Green is averaging 33.2 DK points per game in the seven fixtures that were decided by 20 points or fewer. That's the stud that we saw in past seasons and we love him here in a game that we expect to remain close. In fact, we're looking at Cleveland entering this matchup as a 2.5-point favorite, making all of the guys in this matchup extremely enticing. In addition, the Cavaliers sit 29th in defensive rating.
Kevin Love is definitely in play against the Warriors below $7,000 in what's expected to be a close game.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 26.96 DK - 27.1
Dedmon has been very frustrating recently but Thursday's performance shows just how special he can be. Not only did Dedmon double-double, he also provided four steals and three blocks en route to 42 DraftKings points. That equates to 11X value at the $3,700 price tag he had and it's clear that FanDuel is still slow to adjust to the expanded role. We expect DD to continue to start at center too, with Mavin Bagley III and Richaun Holmes both still injured. As long as those two remain out, Dedmon should start and play plenty. While Los Angeles is a tough matchup, they'll surely need him for 30 minutes against big bodies like Dwight Howard and JaVale McGee.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 24.21 DK - 24.1
Bryant is a stud when he gets the minutes and the last two games would indicate that he's finally ready for a solid workload. In those two fixtures, TB is averaging 37.3 DK points per game across 27.5 minutes of action. That's pretty close to his early-season numbers, with Bryant averaging 31.1 fantasy points per game across 28.3 minutes over his first 18 games played. All of that would make one believe that Bryant is somewhere between $6,000 and $7,000, making him a great value against a Nets team who owns a 27th OPRK against opposing centers.
If LaMarcus Aldridge is out again, don't forget about Jakob Poeltl.
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