Jon Rahm watches his shot from the second tee during the final round of the Quicken Loans National PGA golf tournament, Sunday, June 26, 2016, in Bethesda, Md. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)
Chris will be bringing you weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. Want more? He also provides a cheatsheet with stats, course history, current form, player write-ups for cash and GPP, a customizable model, and much more. You can get access to the sheet in the member's chatroom.
This week the PGA Tour travels to Phoenix, Arizona for the Waste Management Phoenix Open and one of the biggest parties in golf........for the fans. That's right, thousands of people lining up before the sun comes up to not just get into the course, but specifically the iconic 16th hole that is completely enclosed like a stadium. It is a fairly straight forward 163-yard, Par 3 but with 20,000(grandstands only) raucous fans surrounding, it is much more difficult than it appears.
This year's field is another strong one led by Arizona State alum and #3 player in the World, Jon Rahm. He has yet to win this "home event" but has finished T16 or better in all four career trips including a T5 back in 2015 as an amateur. Joining him are nine other players inside the Top 25 OWGR including the winners from each of the last four years in Rickie Fowler(2019), Gary Woodland(2018), and Hideki Matsuyama(2017, 2016).
The host course for this event is TPC Scottsdale which is a Par 71 setup that stretches out to 7,261 yards. In terms of difficulty, it has ranked middle of the pack(21st, 32nd, 33rd, 20th, 22nd) over the last five years and has generated a very consistent winning score between -14 and -18. It is definitely "gettable" with just one of the Par 3's over 200 yards, six of the 11 Par 4's are also under 450 yards including the driveable 17th hole. The remaining five par 4's fall between 450 and 500 yards with four of them exceeding 470 yards. The three Par 5's are all in the same range(558, 558, 552 yards) and are, by far, the easiest holes on the course making up for between 33% and 38% of the overall birdies each year and all three have above average to high eagle rates being reachable by almost the entire field.
From a stats model perspective, one thing I have been doing this season more than others is keeping my model fairly consistent on a week to week basis. I have concentrated a lot of weight on Strokes Gained: Tee to Green tweaking the importance of each facet(OTT, APP, ATG) depending on the course. I compare my own personal model on the sheet(more of a long term model) with a custom model on Fantasy National Golf Club looking at more current stats trends. Each week I also try to find one or two stats where I really feel players in the field can set themselves apart and this week that stat is par 4 scoring.
TPC Scottsdale
Par 71 - 7,261 yards
Greens - Bermuda
**Click the image above to see a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**
When breaking down the top stats I use a combination of my own cheatsheet and the tools over at FantasyNational.com.
Jon Rahm
World Golf Ranking (#3)
Vegas Odds (6/1)
Draftkings ($11,400)
FanDuel ($12,100)
For the fourth week in a row, we get two players stacked up in the $11K range on DraftKings and I slightly lean Rahm who is third overall in my model on the sheet. Both are elite players with huge upside but Rahm got the slight bump in two major areas of the model. The Arizona State alum has played well here with finishes of T16 or better in all four Tour events he has played here and is due(hate to use that term) for a huge win here at TPC Scottsdale. He has been all over the world since the Tour Championship in August and has tallied two wins and three other runner-up finishes in seven worldwide events. I won't be going this direction for cash games but will have a ton of exposure in GPP formats this week as he is my pick to win and top projected raw points scorer.
Collin Morikawa
World Golf Ranking (#56)
Vegas Odds (33/1)
Draftkings ($9,200)
FanDuel ($10,700)
A more balanced approach, especially in cash games, is what I have been using much more this season with a ton of success and this week it starts with Collin Morikawa. The price has been as high as the mid $10K range and as low as the mid $8K range so it feels just about right where it is this week on DraftKings. It has been an impressive start to his pro career as he has now made 14 straight cuts since his debut including two Top 10's and five Top 25 finishes this season(four straight coming into this week). The putter has been up and down lately but he has gained strokes in both Off the Tee and Approach together in six straight tracked events. Looking at the last 24 rounds, he ranks(in this field) Top 30 in SG: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, Par 4 scoring, opportunities gained, and BoB gained. He is my favorite PTS/$ play and a part of my core in all formats.
Corey Conners
World Golf Ranking (#61)
Vegas Odds (80/1)
Draftkings ($7,900)
FanDuel ($9,600)
The mid-range has been my money zone for cash games this season and while Conners putter can turn your hair grey, it is hard to argue with his ball-striking which has led to a very consistent start to the season. In this field, he ranks 10th in SG: Ball Striking and 23rd in SG: Tee to Green since the start of the season and comes in having made six straight cuts, all of which have been Top 20 finishes. This is his first trip to TPC Scottsdale on Tour but at the prices, I feel he has a good combination of floor and upside(if he can even putt field average) and is a great mid-tier value in all formats.
Scottie Scheffler
World Golf Ranking (#53)
Vegas Odds (50/1)
Draftkings ($8,500)
FanDuel ($9,900)
Scheffler is coming off his first missed cut of the season at the Farmers last week but is back in the fold as a core play for me this week. It starts with a price that has dropped for the second straight week and the fact he still ranks 17th in my model despite zero course history. He is having an incredible start to his rookie season making eight of nine cuts including four Top 10's and six Top 25 finishes. That success has been driven by ball-striking as he ranks 7th in this field in that area since the start of the season and not only has he given us a safe floor for cash games but has also flashed a ton of upside ranking 2nd(in this field) in Birdie or Better gained and 1st in DraftKings scoring since the start of the season. All things considered, he one of my favorite plays in all formats and is on the current shortlist for one and done pick and outright bet.
Tom Hoge
World Golf Ranking (#142)
Vegas Odds (100/1)
Draftkings ($7,400)
There are multiple plays that are really close for me in the mid $7K range but Hoge wins out here and it comes down to form. He has put an ugly stretch of four missed cuts in the fall behind him and comes into this week with finishes of T12 at the Sony Open, T6 at the American Express and a 5th place finish last week at the Farmers Insurance Open. I am not at all expecting another result like that this week but he has flashed that upside and after missing the cut here in 2018, rebounded with a T44 last year and a Top 30 is definitely not out of the question this go around making him an excellent mid-tier value.
Doc Redman
World Golf Ranking (#157)
Vegas Odds (275/1)
Draftkings ($6,600)
FanDuel ($7,500)
If you are building a core around Rahm or JT this week you are going to need to dip your toes into the $6K range. Redman is a player I will be targeting in this range as he has been consistent making eight of his last 11 cuts and over his last 24 rounds ranks(in this field) 5th in SG: Off the Tee(6th in Good drive %), 15th in SG: Approach, 6th in par 4 scoring(15th from 450-500 yards) and while he is 104th in Birdie or Better gained he is 4th in opportunities. I feel he has a great shot at making the cut and if he can gain even average strokes to the field with the flat stick has a shot at crushing value at his price.
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