FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Sunday, 1/26/20

Sunday in the NBA gives us a split slate of action with two “early” games and then a six-game main slate starting at 6PM EST. There’s plenty to like with some great DFS matchups, injury news paving the way for cheaper value and a couple of spend up options for cash. Let’s take a look at the DraftKings and FanDuel plays.

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Point Guard

Ricky Rubio FD - $5700 DK - $6500
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 35.06 DK - 35.71
From a fantasy perspective, Rubio has really struggled in the short term with only five assists total in his last two games and less than double digit points in two of the last four. The minutes have more than been there, but the production is really lacking. But the matchups haven’t been exactly ideal with two games against the Spurs, plus the Pacers and Celtics in the last week or so. He’ll get a chance to turn things around against a Memphis team ranked in the bottom third in defensive efficiency and running a 105.6 pace. The price, especially on FanDuel is a pretty easy play at this point and doesn’t carry all that much risk even with the short term performance.

T.J. McConnell FD - $4600 DK - $5000
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 27.74 DK - 27.75
McConnell got the start for the injured Malcolm Brogdon on Friday and put up a solid line with 12 points and eight assists in 30 minutes. Brogdon has already been ruled out for Sunday and TJ should once again grab the start. Portland has allowed more than league average production to opposing point guards this season, with ones putting up 3% more points against the Blazers. The price on both sites ticked up a bit, but he’s still a solid value and considering the Pacers put up 129 points against the Warriors last time out with McConnell out it stands to reason he sees plenty of run again.

Strongly consider Elfrid Payton (FD $5800 DK $5500) against the Nets.

And along the same lines, Kyrie Irving (FD $8700 DK $9000) is coming off a monster game against the Pistons on Saturday. He isn’t likely to repeat the robust numbers, but the Knicks don’t offer much in the way of defensive resistance.

Shooting Guard

Lou Williams FD - $6100 DK - $7400
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 35.52 DK - 37.17
Paul George remains out and I still think we are getting Lou-Will at a discount, especially on FanDuel. The last game, on Friday against the Heat, was a big disappointment with Kawhi Leonard taking over almost all of the production and Williams seeing his minutes cut some coming off the bench. But I do think that’s something of an outlier and we have a season’s worth of track record on the Clippers’ sixth man. He had played 30+ minutes in each of the previous three games and is averaging 20 points, six assists and three boards on the season. I don’t love the DraftKings price though and think you can find better value elsewhere.

Jeremy Lamb FD - $4400 DK - $4400
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 25.33 DK - 25.13
This is a close one considering the performance has been so up and down this season for Lamb. Even when it’s seemed he would get outsized opportunity, some of the depth with the Pacers’ back court has meant Lamb’s minutes get buzzed even in good game scripts. But on Friday against the Warriors he did see 28 minutes with Brogdon out of the lineup and finished with a healthy 16 points, four rebounds and four assists. He got up nine shots and shot well from the field. If 27-28 minutes is going to be the case with Brog out of the lineup then you can for sure take a chance on Lamb at these prices, especially on DraftKings where the saving could help fit some pieces elsewhere.

Strongly consider Dillon Brooks (FD $5200 DK $5500) who could see a few extra minutes with Jae Crowder doubtful for this game.

Small Forward

T.J. Warren FD - $5900 DK - $6000
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 34.88 DK - 34.69
We touted Warren as a cash game staple on Friday with Brogdon out of the lineup. He was low-owned and paid off handsomely with a slate-beating line of 33 points, five rebounds and four steals. The defensive stats aren’t going to be something we can take to the bank each time out, but the scoring was where we were looking anyway. He led the team with an absurd 23 shots from the field nearly doubling up the next closest guy on the team in attempts. That makes 41 shots over the last two games with Brogdon out and I think the usage continues in this offense. He’s a value on both sites when factoring in the usage uptick and after Friday’s game I think the ownership is much higher as well.

Marcus Morris FD - $5600 DK - $5900
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 33.04 DK - 34.36
Sure, the Knicks stink. That much isn’t really up for debate. But they almost for sure are shopping Marcus Morris right now and he’s been playing major minutes for New York. Over the last eight games he’s averaging 35 minutes per game and a 22 point, five assists line with some defensive stats thrown in as well. With Kyrie Irving back in the mix, the Nets play a much faster pace and have allowed 117 or more points to opponents in four of the last five games. The Knicks should see a pace up/ higher volume game here and that’s key for Morris who does rely quite a bit on scoring to hit value. Small forward, especially on FanDuel is one of the weaker positions on the slate so I don’t mind grabbing some guys in the middle tier who project for higher 30’s minutes.

Consider Kelly Oubre Jr. (FD $6700 DK $6300) against the Grizzlies.

Maurice Harkless (FD $4000 DK $3400) played a lot of minutes last game and is coming very cheap on both sites. That being said, he needs every minute to contribute enough to hit value, but I don’t mind the floor considering the punt prices.

Power Forward

Kawhi Leonard FD - $10200 DK - $10200
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 54.94 DK - 54.84
Kawhi was a chalk play at power forward on FanDuel on Friday and he delivered against the Heat. The 33 point, 10 assists, 10 rebound line was the first triple-double of his career and he was in full takeover mode throughout the game. He’ll get a chance for a repeat performance against the Magic on Sunday. That being said, Orlando isn’t exactly a prime DFS matchup considering they play a top-five defensive efficiency this season with a bottom-four pace. That’s not all that enticing, but the main slate is also pretty slim on pay-up options and there’s middle tier and lower plays at every other position. For that reason, I think we find ourselves just spending for Kawhi and assuming the shot attempts and floor are high enough to warrant the price tag.

Daniel Theis FD - $4900 DK - $5500
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 30.9 DK - 29.43
This found his way into our FanDuel cash lineups on Friday when Enes Kanter was ruled out for the Celtics. The assumption was Boston’s lack of size would push Theis into more minutes and that played out just as planned. He ran 32 minutes and finished with 16 points, six rebounds and four assists. Kanter has already been ruled out for Sunday though Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown returning could mean the Celtics run some smaller lineups across the board against the Pelicans. But I still like the Theis hitting at least upper-20’s minutes and that would warrant a play on both sites against an ultra-fast and defensively deficient Pelicans’ squad.

If you think Dario Saric’s (FD $3600 DK $4100) 30+ minutes from last game are going to stick then he’s a great cheap option on this slate. But I’m just a little skeptical considering they haven’t used him that way much in recent games.

Jarrett Allen (FD $6000 DK $6100) but up a monster line against the Pistons in an overtime win on Friday. With DeAndre Jordan out they’ve needed him to play more minutes and he’s delivered. If Jordan is out again then expect 32+ minutes from Allen again and he’d be a play on both sites.

Strongly consider John Collins (FD 7700 DK 8000) in a dream matchup against the Wizards.

Center

Deandre Ayton FD - $7800 DK - $7500
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 43.36 DK - 44.32
Ayton’s been a mess the last two games, averaging just 10 points and 10 rebounds with zero blocks in 31 and 36 minutes respectively. It was two very disappointing performances from a guy who’d turned in some monsters over the week preceding. I’m not seeing these last two games though as much more than a blip on the radar. He’ll get a Memphis team allowing around league average production to opposing centers this season and they run one of the faster paces in the league. I think we can pencil Ayton in for mid-to-upper 30’s minutes in what Vegas projects as a closer game. And the last couple of duds have meant the price stagnating in the $7K range on DraftKings and FanDuel. That’s great news and this offers a perfect time to buy for cash games.

Myles Turner FD - $5000 DK - $4900
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 28.69 DK - 27.7
This is too cheap on Myles Turner right? Right? Dude has become something of a fantasy afterthought this season, running variable minutes and not seeing much in the way of usage in the offense. It’s been rough and the price has done nothing but drop. But I do think there are scenarios when he puts it together in a game that would easily outstrip the salaries. He has multiple block games in him and has averaged 1.7 blocks and a steal per game over the last month. And outside of last game, he’s still taking around four three pointers a game even though they are going down less than 24% of the time in January. That’s some serious run bad for a guy shooting closer to 34% on the season. I think we have a breakout game coming down the pike when the threes and defensive stuff combines in one performance.

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