San Antonio Spurs guard DeMar DeRozan (10) and guard Dejounte Murray (5) during the second half of an NBA basketball game against the Atlanta Hawks in San Antonio, Friday, Jan. 17, 2020. Atlanta won 121-120. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)
With the NFL conference championship games going, the NBA has sort of ducked this slate. As of now we don't know what sort of slates are going to be offered, if any, but let's break down each game for kicks.
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Miami is favored by 1 in a game with a 221 total.
Well, well, well, it's a rematch of last Wednesday's game, which the Heat took down by a score of 106-100. That's not a super exciting DFS total, and these are two teams that are essentially fairly priced. Rudy Gay is out for the Spurs, and Dejounte Murray is questionable, but right now there isn't a lot of obvious value jumping to the forefront.
But what are you going to do, skip a whole game on a two game slate? I think not. Let's take a look at the two squads.
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 23.32 DK - 24.86
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 24.88 DK - 25.5
As far as our system is concerned the Heat's value comes primarily from the back-court, with Nunn and Robinson leading the charge. Robinson has shown that he's nothing special, but given that Spoelstra is happy to leave him out there for 35+ minutes a game you can't ignore him at essentially the minimum price on FanDuel. He's paid almost exactly 21 fantasy points in each of his last three games, which is really all you can ask for here.
Nunn has been electric recently, and while he's pretty scoring dependent, he's been absolutely shooting the lights out on the looks he's been getting. He crushed these Spurs for 46.6 FanDuel points on 13/18 shooting in that game, and while you can't expect that every game he still looks like a cash game staple.
After these two, things get a little more speculative. Our system doesn't love Bam, but he was totally fine in the Wednesday game. You can also consider Goran Dragic off the bench.
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 38.92 DK - 39.29
Hoo-boy, does our system hate the Spurs today. That said, there is a little value floating around, and DDR has just been a different player recently. His time of possession, shots, assists, and points are all up in the New Year, and he scored 30 points on a hyper efficient 12-14 from the field when these two teams met last week. You're not getting away with anything playing him at these prices, but he should be a high floor pay-up option.
After DeRozan, I can't say I'm in love with any of these Spurs. Trey Lyles is another cheap option that can help you pay for real players at other positions. He's probably under-priced relative to his new opportunity, and totally fine on a short slate. LaMarcus Aldridge was bad in the Wednesday game, but again, you're running pretty low on options on this slate in general.
Denver is favored by 1.5 in a game with a 211.5 total.
You want a game between two teams with top 10 defenses and bottom 6 paces? Well, here you go. If you thought I was lukewarm about the Heat/Spurs game, this one has a total that's ten points less. That said, the 2-game slate corollary applies, and Denver is missing Murray and Millsap, so let's see what we can see.
The Pacers are a tough team to forecast for DFS purposes now that Brogdon is back. Basically all of these guys were priced for their opportunity with Brogdon out, and his return complicates things.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 33.84 DK - 34.68
We'll start with the man himself. Brogdon was a solid $8k player before going down earlier this season, and now he's a lot cheaper. He had strep throat after returning from a laundry list of injuries, but he's looking pretty healthy now, and he could slide back into a 34+ minute rotation at a moment's notice. I think this is a fine slate to try and be a game early on his return, and think his floor is great on these prices even in a lousy match-up.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 28.11 DK - 27.84
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 27.66 DK - 27.67
Warren and Lamb were the two biggest usage beneficiaries when Brogdon was out, but both have show flashes since his return as well. I think the production is going to be inconsistent with all the mouths to feed, and both of them benefited from Sabonis' foul trouble last game, but both are cheap enough that they shouldn't kill you. On this tiny slate, that might have to be enough.
We finally get to our value team. Let's take a peek.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 29.28 DK - 29.1
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 21.93 DK - 21.85
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 28.35 DK - 28.76
Ohhhh, yeah. Porter and Morris have been 80%+ cash game plays on full slates, and while their DK prices have edged upward their FD prices remain largely untouched. With Murray and Millsap already ruled out both of these guys are squarely in the "price and opportunity mismatch" category, and phenomenal plays. On DK it gets a little closer, where our system thinks you should still prioritize Morris but be a little more cautious with Porter.
Grant hasn't shown the explosive potential of Porter, but we do have multiple 6x+ points per dollar performances on these price tags, and his price has stayed pretty low as a result of his relatively low ownership. If he's back in the starting lineup I'm happy to throw him in lineups of all shapes and sizes.
After the cheap plays, both Nikola Jokic and Will Barton are in play. On these short slates any missing players make a huge difference, and that's why we love so many Nuggets here.
A quick word on Malik Beasley: I think you're maxing out Nuggets today, and while Beasley was incredible last game he might wind up being the odd man out. Both the minutes and the performance came absolutely out of nowhere, and while there's obvious upside I'm not sure you can count on it for cash games if he's coming off the bench again.
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