James Harden, de los Rockets de Houston, festeja luego de encestar un triple ante los Bulls de Chicago, el sábado 9 de noviembre de 2019 (AP Foto/Matt Marton)
After a stressful, hair-pulling Monday full of "who's in and who's out?" things get a little more settled for Tuesday night's six-game slate of NBA action. We've got four of the NBA's six worst defenses playing tonight and a lot of big-name studs going up against them. The action tips off a half-hour later than usual and Jerry's got you covered with a position by position breakdown of our top NBA plays.
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Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 57.76 DK - 62.11
Luka Doncic has hit a bit of a skid. When talking about Doncic however, the thing to consider is that a skid for him would still be a career night for many other NBAers. While he's still posting a double-double every game, scoring no fewer than 19 points on a given night, and stuffing the stat sheet until it bursts, Doncic has failed to pay value in three straight contests. This has brought his FanDuel price down to earth a bit. This could not come at a better time as Doncic and the Mavs head west for a game against the hapless Warriors. Golden State is a bottom dweller not only in the standings, but also defensively against opposing point guards. This is an excellent time to take a chance on Luka, who should dominate tonight, crushing value on FanDuel, and though the DraftKings price is up there, the matchup warrants exposure across the industry.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 32.32 DK - 31.74
Since we kicked this thing off with a top tier stud, let's balance the point with a bit of value, shall we? Patrick Beverley dominated the aforementioned Warriors on Friday night ending the night an assist shy of a triple-double in 35 minutes of run time. His stat line returned to normal against the Nuggets on Sunday, but tonight he has an opportunity to feast on the NBA's weakest point defense when the Cavaliers come into L.A. Cleveland is top five in raw points, assists, blocks and steals allowed to opposing points. Our NBA projection system loves PB for 6X PPD (points per dollar) tonight, and I wouldn't be the least bit shocked to see him go higher. Consider Beverley in all formats.
Trae Young is questionable for tonight's game against the Suns. If he's ruled out Brandon Goodwin (FD $3800 DK $4000) becomes an excellent punt.
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 63.62 DK - 66.16
This shouldn't be a hard sell. The most expensive name on the slate becomes even more appealing with the word that Russell Westbrook is sitting out tonight's game in Memphis. No Westy means James Harden's already ridiculous 39.4% usage rate climbs to an astounding 47.7%. Over the last five games the beard has been scoring 1.7 fantasy points per minute averaging 33 minutes per game. This game feature's two of the games top four teams in pace factor, and promises to remain competitive throughout, so take the over on minutes and roll out Harden in your lineups with complete confidence.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 38.43 DK - 40.22
Lou Williams jumped into the starting five for the Clippers on Sunday while Paul George remained sidelined with a strained hamstring. He managed to drop 26 points in 34 minutes while posting fantasy production in line with his usual bench numbers. This play isn't so much about if Williams starts or not, it's all about the matchup. Cleveland once again is just flat-out terrible when it comes to playing defense. Sweet Lou, meanwhile, has dropped over 20 points in five straight games. DraftKings was quick to respond to Williams' promotion to the starting squad, jacking his price $1K overnight. The Fanduel price, however, hasn't budged. George is out once again tonight, so Lou Will could once again get the call to start. If he starts, the ceiling rises just a bit so we can consider him on DK, but he's a play on FD regardless.
Consider Kevin Huerter (FD $4800 DK $6200) on the cheap against the Suns allowing the third-most scoring to opposing SG's.
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 31.11 DK - 31.4
Alec Burks drew the start on Sunday while Damion Lee sits out for contract negotiations. Burks failed to perform against the Grizzlies pairing 13 points with six rebounds and not much else in 27 minutes. He'll have a perfect opportunity for redemption tonight, however, against the Mavericks. Dallas is the second most generous team to opposing wings this season, allowing 20 points, nine rebounds, and four assists on average to the position. Don't let one game scare you off. Before Sunday, Burks was averaging 5.7X PPD at these prices in his last six contests, eclipsing the 7.5X mark twice. It shouldn't take long for Burks to find his groove in the starting rotation, and when he does he's set to go off. Be there when it happens.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 37.96 DK - 37.75
Kelly Oubre Jr. has started 2020 with a bang. Since the ball dropped Oubre is averaging 22.7 points, 8.5 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and 1.7 steals per game. He's coming off of his best game of the season, a 25 point 15 rebound outing against the Hornets that saw him pay over 8X PPD at these prices. While it's fair to question exactly how long the production will continue to sustain relative to the price, we can take confidence in Oubre tonight against the Hawks and the number one defense to target at the three. The plan in Phoenix right now seems to be to give Oubre all the minutes he can handle, and he's taking full advantage.
Consider Tim Hardaway Jr. (FD $4700 DK $4900) who has paid over 5.4X PPD in three of his last four games in a pace up game against Golden State.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 53.59 DK - 53.55
The difficulty in tonight's slate is going to be finding balance in our lineups. There are studs to consider at nearly every position and not much right now in the way of punts. We've already touched on Doncic and Harden both in terrific matchups, now at power forward we have Kawhi Leonard. Kawhi also finds himself in an enticing spot facing the Cavaliers at home. As if that wasn't enough, consider the bump in usage he stands to see with Paul George out again. In the last two games without PG13, Kawhi has averaged 33 points, seven boards, 4.5 assists, and three steals in 36 minutes against the Warriors and the Nuggets. As he has already proven, Kawhi is priced too low for the production he is capable of with George out of commission, and I'm quite comfortable running him out there again tonight.
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 33.21 DK - 33.04
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 26.73 DK - 26.69
We've got a double-dip of Dubs to consider at the four if you're looking for a little bit of value (and I know you are). In spite of scoring just three points while allowing four turnovers, Draymond Green still managed to end a 23 minute night in Memphis on Sunday with a respectable fantasy total, thanks mostly to his defensive prowess, and presence in the glass. Dray's minutes have been all over the place lately, ranging from 21-35 in his last six games played, but he manages to make the most of whatever time he's given and is generally a safe option at this price point.
Omari Spellman meanwhile, has been electrifying since moving into the starting role on Friday night. In two games as a starter, Spellman has averaged 26.5 minutes and paid 1.13 fantasy points per minute. At these prices, anything over 20 minutes makes a Spelly a cash game lock. This will be Spellman's toughest test yet as a starter, but the price is still far below where it should be so there's little to fret over. Spellman has the safety, the potential upside, and the salary relief we're looking for tonight.
Bruno Fernando is out again and things aren't looking good for Alex Len. This could help to make John Collins (FD $8300 DK $8300) a strong pivot off of Kawhi if you need the savings.
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 37.73 DK - 38.83
We're going to close things out by checking both sides of the Cavs/Clips contest. Tristan Thompson has been looking quite sharp since returning from a one-game absence due to illness last week. In four games returned, Thompson has averaged 37 minutes and 1.15 fantasy points per minute. That's $9K production from a $6K salary. The Clippers run a top ten pace and are a bottom ten defense against opposing big men, if Thompson stands to continue to pick up extended playing time then he's priced far too low and is a fantastic option to consider in all formats across the board.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 36.79 DK - 36
We've targeted the Clippers at nearly every position tonight, but that's just what losing a player of Paul George's caliber will do. There's over 30 minutes and 31.7% usage up for grabs creating a ton of opportunity, especially up front. Montrezl Harrell picks up an additional 1.5% which adds to his already strong appeal at these prices. Through five games this month, Harrell is averaging 24.2 points, 7.4 boards, and 1.2 blocks in 29 minutes per game. In spite of coming off the bench, Harrell has been picking up consistent playing time and making the most of every minute he gets on the court. While Thompson benefits from the pace up the Clippers bring to the table tonight, Harrell and the Clippers benefit from the weaker defensive matchup from the Cavs, ranked 24th overall defending at the five.
If you've got the funds, strongly consider Clint Capela (FD $7900 DK $7800), against the 26th ranked Grizzlies in a game with a 238 projected total and just a 4.5 point spread.
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