New Orleans Pelicans guard Lonzo Ball (2) celebrates a basket against the Phoenix Suns during the first half of an NBA basketball game, Thursday, Nov. 21, 2019, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Matt York)
Welcome, DFSRNation! You've hustled and grinded all week and now get to reap the rewards of a ten-game slate of NBA action to kick off the weekend. Our own Jerry Vanderwoude is ready to break down the top plays at each position as determined by our famous NBA projection system, so brace yourself as we get set to do it to it!
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Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 37.25 DK - 38.5
Lonzo Ball is coming to us as a tremendous value at the point. Since returning to the starting five, Lonzo's price has jumped across the industry but there is still plenty of room for growth when you consider the most recent production he's been creating. Ball has started eight straight games and in that time has averaged nearly 36 fantasy points per game eclipsing the 40 point mark three times in his last five starts. For that, he should easily be priced closer to the $8K mark. The Knicks are average defending against the position, so the match-up is nothing to fret over. All in all, it's a buyers market on Ball, and I will be all in with my cash games.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 35.65 DK - 36.4
Ricky Rubio has hit a bit of a scoring slump over the Suns' last several games, failing to hit double digits in four straight. He's been playing through some ailments, so that could be factoring into play, but he continues to be a steady source of production regardless, dishing out several assists per game while mixing in the rebounds and steals for good measure. In the short term with his scoring woes, Rubio's price has dropped across the industry. This creates appeal in a game against the Magic with a combined pace factor of 102.5 and an opening line favoring Phoenix by just two points. Rubio is priced perfectly for our cash game needs, and if he manages to find his shot he's a threat to crush over 6.5X points per dollar (PPD), so don't be shy to run with Ricky in tournaments as well.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 31.67 DK - 31.28
We've already looked at Lonzo Ball on the Pelicans side of this contest, but there is also value to be had on the Knicks side as well with Elfrid Payton. Elf is firmly entrenched as the lead at the point for New York right now and continues to do just enough of everything to pad the stat sheet and build up the fantasy points every night. He struggled in 24 minutes against the Jazz on Wednesday but finds himself in a much more favorable position tonight in a pace up game against the Pelicans who allow the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season.
If you're looking to spend up at the point, Luka Doncic (FD $11400 DK $12600) has a favorable matchup against the Lakers.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 25.24 DK - 25.77
Jrue Holiday remains out for the Pelicans tonight, so look for them to turn to Josh Hart once again. Hart has started the last two games in Jrue's absence averaging 30 minutes on the boards during that time. While he did little to impress against the Jazz who present league's second-toughest matchup against opposing shooting guards, he showed marked improvement against an easier Bulls defense on Wednesday and tonight gets the best match-up yet against the Knicks. New York is slightly below average defending against opposing two guards. They're especially generous beyond the arc where they're allowing the fifth most three-pointers to the position. As long as Jrue remains out Hart should continue to prove to be quite the bargain especially in an ideal match-up such as this.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 30.32 DK - 31.17
Kevin Huerter is currently riding a five-game double-digit scoring streak, and in that time he has managed to pay over 6X PPD at these prices four times. Tonight he receives the best match-up a shooting guard can ask for, the Washington Wizards. The Wiz have surrendered the second-most assists, third-most threes, and the most raw points to opposing SG's this season, and they will likely be without Bradley Beal once again. These are two of the four fastest teams in the Association, so anticipate plenty of scoring from Huerter in this one with 6X PPD all but guaranteed.
Delon Wright (FD $4500 DK $4900) drew the start against Denver on Wednesday and ended the night with a 6/6/2/1/3 line in 31 minutes. Kristaps Porzingis has already been ruled out for the weekend, so strongly consider Wright if he finds himself starting again tonight against the Lakers.
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 57.55 DK - 59.88
Small forward is where we can drop some serious coin given the value we have elsewhere. Giannis sits with a probable tag as he continues to deal with that back issue, but as he's held that tag for the past couple of weeks now and has only missed two games since Christmas it's fair to assume he'll play. The Greek Freak, second only to James Harden in both raw points and fantasy points per game this season leads the Bucks into Sacramento for a shootout with the Kings. He's surpassed 50 FD points in three of his last five contests, double-doubling four times in that stretch. Unless the back troubles start to lead to missed time Giannis is in line for another MVP caliber season and will be a top play every time he takes the court regardless of the match-up.
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 53.71 DK - 57.02
LeBron James is another top dollar stud sitting with a probable tag, and like Giannis, there doesn't seem to be much cause for concern. In the King's case, it's an illness that is the culprit, but James played through it on Tuesday and is fully expected to take to the court tonight in Dallas. Anthony Davis is currently questionable as of this writing and seems unlikely to play, so L.A. will be counting on James, who's already high usage spikes 5.5% with Davis unavailable. Over his last seven games, LeBron has surpassed 50 fantasy points five times, and during that stretch, he has two triple-doubles, three double-doubles, and five games of 20 points or better.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 37.5 DK - 37.26
If you need to even out one of those studs with a more balanced play then let's talk about Kelly Oubre. Oubre is coming off of his second straight 17 point game after a run of four straight contests scoring at least 20, a stretch during which he has double-doubled twice. The key to Oubre's appeal is the playing time. He sees a ton of it. In his last nine games, Oubre has run the boards for at least 36 and as many as 40 minutes in all but one. For all the run he sees Oubre should be priced closer to $8K, but with the cost down in the short term, now is an excellent time to get some exposure to Oubre in your lineups.
The Pacers are hopeful Malcolm Brogdon will be able to play tonight, but if he misses a fifth contest then consider T.J. Warren (FD $5500 DK $5700) who was on a fantastic run before being ejected just 23 minutes into Wednesday night's contest.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 35.89 DK - 36.48
There was some concern about Nemanja Bjelica's ankle, enough so that he missed yesterday's practice, but he's not on the injury report so it seems safe to assume he's good to go tonight, which is great news as we're getting him off of a superb outing against the Suns on Tuesday. In 38 minutes he added seven rebounds to a 19 point night for a nearly 7.5X PPD performance. It was Bjelica's fourth time in his last seven games paying at least 5X at these prices. Milwaukee is a bottom ten defense at the four allowing the third-most rebounds to the position. As long as Bjelica keeps off the injury report be sure to keep him top of mind when building your lineups.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 30.95 DK - 30.84
Wendell Carter will be out for several weeks due to an ankle sprain, so expect to see a lot more of Thaddeus Young in the Chicago front court in the meantime. Thad started on Wednesday in New Orleans, posting a season-high 18 points in 34 minutes on his way to his second straight 35 fantasy point performance. If this is what we can expect from Young as a starter then he is about $1000 below where he should be and it would be wise to consider him as a lock in your lineups in all formats until the sites catch up. The Pacers tend to be tougher on opposing power forwards, but at these prices, we can throw caution to the wind.
When discussing LeBron James earlier I mentioned that Anthony Davis was unlikely to suit up tonight. While that's good news for James, it's fantastic news for Kyle Kuzma (FD $4400 DK $5300). If AD is sidelined Kuzma is a superb option at the position.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 28.83 DK - 29.77
We've already devoted a lot of attention to this game and we aren't quite done yet. This game features a pair of poor teams that don't exactly play defense and a combined pace factor of 103.4. I'm still waiting for an opening line to drop, but my anticipation is this will be a high scoring shootout with no concern of either team blowing out the other. With Julius Randle remaining out for personal reasons, Bobby Portis should continue to run with the starting rotation. Portis picked up 28 minutes in Wednesday's loss to Utah and double-doubled with 13 each, points and rebounds, as well as six assists. DraftKings is being much more aggressive, nearly doubling the cost of Bobby P. overnight, whereas Fanduel is playing the conservative pricing game. While I think we can safely use Portis in cash across the industry, I'll reserve my tournament use for Fanduel where I wouldn't be surprised to see 8-10X PPD out of Portis at the end of the night.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 42.23 DK - 43.27
We're finally starting to get a reliable sample size of what to expect from Deandre Ayton who missed much of the early part of the season due to suspension and injury. Five of the seven games Ayton has played in this season have come in the past two weeks, and in that time he's averaged 31.2 minutes, 14.4 points, twelve boards, 2.6 assists, and a block per game. If this is what we can come to expect from Ayton on a nightly basis then it's hard to argue against these prices. Orlando's defense doesn't make it easy on opposing big men, but Ayton has already shown in his limited experience that he can hold his own against some of the league's tougher defenses (LAL, SAC), so don't let the matchup scare you off.
If neither of these guys does it for you, Montrezl Harrell (FD $6500 DK $6700) is coming off of back to back 6X PPD performances, in a favorable matchup against Golden State.
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