(AP Photo/Eric Risberg)
Chris will be bringing you weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. Want more? He also provides a cheatsheet with stats, course history, current form, player write-ups for cash and GPP, a customizable model, and much more. You can get access to the sheet in the member's chatroom.
After a very exciting start to 2020 with the Tournament of Champions, the PGA Tour now heads to North a bit to Waialae Country Club for the Sony Open and the first full-field event of the year. Overall, the field is on the weaker side with just 15 of the Top 50 players but is headlined by World #4 and former winner of this event, Justin Thomas and joining him is the defending winner, Matt Kuchar.
Like it has since the tournament began back in 1965, Waialae Country Club will host this year's event. The course is a 7,044 yard Par 70 setup with four Par 3's, 12 Par 4's, and just two Par 5's. The fairways are smaller than average and with the combination of some doglegs, creates a lot less than driver strategies off the tee. Even with that strategy for most of the golfers, the average fairways hit over the last five years is under 55% which puts some emphasis on Rough Proximity as the average Greens in Regulation hit is still over 70% over the last five years. With the additional Par 4's and less Par 5's on this Par 70 track, I will be focusing on Par 4 scoring and Birdie or Better % with an average winning score around or lower than -20 every single year.
The other thing to pay attention to here at Waialae is the weather as it is one of the biggest defenses. As of Tuesday morning, the pre-cut rounds on Thursday and Friday look to be the most brutal with steady winds over 30 mph both days. This has me looking very closely at players who play well in windy conditions and to do this I use the tools over at FantasyNationalGolfClub.
With all that info, let's now take a look at the course, top stats, and dig into the picks.
Waialae Country Club
Par 70 - 7,044 Yards
Greens - Bermuda
**Click the image above to see a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**
*Playoff win
When breaking down the top stats I use a combination of my own cheatsheet and the tools over at FantasyNational.com.
Webb Simpson
World Golf Ranking (#12)
Vegas Odds (11/1)
Draftkings ($11,100)
FanDuel ($11,500)
Webb started the fall season out hot with three straight Top 10 finishes at the Safeway Open, RSM Classic, and unofficial Hero World Challenge. He now kicks off 2020 at course he is not only familiar with but has thrived at in the past as he comes in with four straight Top 15 finishes while never missing a cut here in nine career trips. I also mentioned the wind above and no player stands out more in my model than Webb who ranks #1 in Ball Striking in Windy AF conditions(via FNGC) over the last 50 rounds. Overall, he is #1 in my model and in play in all formats.
Collin Morikawa
World Golf Ranking (#55)
Vegas Odds (18/1)
Draftkings ($10,300)
FanDuel ($10,900)
Morikawa comes in at #27 in my model this week but that is a bit skewed as he has no course history here at Waialae CC. I am not at all concerned with the lack of familiarity here as he has been impressive on courses(to him) since turning pro last year. In fact, he has yet to miss a cut as a pro over 14 events with a win(Barracuda Championship), five Top 10's, and seven Top 25 finishes. One of those top 10's came last week at the Tournament of Champions where he gained over six strokes Ball Striking. He also stands out when looking at my custom model on FNGC as he ranks 3rd in SG: Ball Striking(23rd OTT, 4th APP), 13th in BoB Gained, and 20th in Par 4 scoring since the start of the season. On top of that, he ranks 19th in SG: Ball Striking in Windy conditions over the last 50 rounds. All things considered, Morikawa is my top PTS/$ this week in all formats and I will also be placing an outright bet on him as well.
Corey Conners
World Golf Ranking (#58)
Vegas Odds (40/1)
Draftkings ($8,900)
FanDuel ($10,500)
I wrote up Conners last week for the Tournament of Champions and I am going right back to the well this week. He struggled a bit on the weekend shooting 74/73 but still managed a T19 finish which makes it a five straight Top 20 finishes since missing the cut at the Safeway Open in September. On my sheet(combo of last season & this season stats), he ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking(3rd OTT, 7th APP) and 2nd in Rough Proximity and looking at stats form since the start of the season, he ranks 3rd(in this field) in Ball Striking, 18th in BoB Gained, 8th in Opportunities Gained, and if concerned about the wind, he ranks 7th in SG: Ball Striking in windy conditions(L50 rounds). The price is a little higher but is relative to the field strength and I will have exposure in all formats.
Chez Reavie
World Golf Ranking (#36)
Vegas Odds (55/1)
Draftkings ($8,400)
FanDuel ($10,000)
In terms of mid-range plays, Chez Reavie is right there with Conners. He has been very consistent in terms making cuts missing just one in seven events this season after making 22 of 28 last year. The consistency comes from his above-average ball striking(17th on my sheet) and accuracy off the tee. Both things that are huge here at Waialae CC and he has proven it works as he returns, not only with five straight cuts made but two top 10's in his last three trips(T18 the other). He also ranks 33rd in this field in SG: Ball Striking in windy conditions which should give him a bit of an advantage over most of the field when looking at the Thursday/Friday forecast. Fire him up in all formats.
Kyle Stanley
World Golf Ranking (#118)
Vegas Odds (125/1)
Draftkings ($7,000)
FanDuel ($8,800)
Has not been as consistent as others in the article having missed three cuts in six events so far but checks a lot of boxes this week. It starts with his course history as he returns to Waialae CC with four straight cuts made here including three Top 25's and a Top 10 in 2017. His game fits the course as he is accurate off the tee(24th in Driv Acc) and hits a ton of greens(14th in SG: APP) and in terms of the windy forecast, he ranks 28th in SG: Ball Striking in windy conditions over a 50 round sample size. An excellent value to help us get up to those top tier players this week.
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