FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Tuesday, 1/7/19
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Point Guard
Kyle Lowry FD - $8400 DK - $8700
Opponent -
PORProj Pts FD - 45.39 DK - 47.6
If they weren’t already before, the Raptors are now officially working with a skeleton crew. Fred VanVleet is going to sit out Tuesday’s game and he’ll join Pascal Siakam and Marc Gasol on the Toronto injured list. Lowry has already been playing major minutes with a ton of usage and look for that to continue in the short term. He’s played 39 or more minutes in nine of his last 11 games and in that time averaged 23 points, eight assists, five rebounds and more than a steal per game while taking more than 17 shots. When it comes to minutes’ floors, there are few other players in the league as “safe” as Lowry and there’s a lot to like from a cash game perspective knowing you are essentially locking up this kind of run. And it’s reasonable to think the usage ticks up even more without FVV.
Derrick Rose FD - $6100 DK - $6400
Opponent -
CLEProj Pts FD - 35.56 DK - 35.94
Blake Griffin might be shut down for the season, Drummond could get traded any day now, the Pistons are circling the drain and they have almost no one who can even reliably score. Enter Mr. Derrick Rose, in the “twilight” of his career who’s putting up awesome usage in his minutes and getting more run of late with the team so banged up. Over his last five games he’s averaging 17 shots in 27 minutes per game and putting up 22 points and four assists in that span. Yes, he’s coming off the bench, but is still leading the team in scoring in that stretch and now gets to face a Cleveland backcourt with two guys (Garland and Sexton) who show very little propensity to play defense. It’s weird playing sixth men at these price points but I think Rose has such a high floor considering what the Pistons are asking / allowing him to do.
If C.J. McCollum sits again then I like
Damian Lillard (FD $8900 DK $9200) because of the expected usage bump. Additionally,
Anfernee Simons (FD $3900 DK $4200) could start after starting the second half in last game with C.J. out.
Shooting Guard
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander FD - $6500 DK - $6800
Opponent -
BKNProj Pts FD - 36.61 DK - 36.87
SGA has turned it lately, really turning on the scoring and running major minutes for the, possibly playoff-bound Thunder. Over his last eight games Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 27 points, 5.4 rebounds and three assists and two steals per game. He’s coming at a very reasonable price on FanDuel against a Brooklyn team that’s struggling on defense in the short-term. The Thunder are on a back-to-back here but SGA isn’t at risk of losing minutes in that scenario. He’s pretty scoring dependent which makes him something of a riskier proposition but that’s built in to his price.
After SGA, the shooting guard plays are all somewhat dependent on injury news. If Bogdan Bogdanovic were to sit again, I would continue to like
Buddy Hield (FD $6400 DK $7000) who’s been shooting at higher volume of late.
If the Knicks were without Elfrid Payton again,
RJ Barrett (FD $5100 DK $5600) could play a lot but there’s blowout risk there.
.
And finally, with FVV out we could see more opportunity for
Patrick McCaw (FD $3700 DK $4000) or
Terence Davis (FD $3600 DK $4900).
This whole position is pretty fluid as of this writing.
Small Forward
LeBron James FD - $10900 DK - $11200
Opponent -
NYProj Pts FD - 54.52 DK - 57.17
There really aren’t many compelling spend-up options on this slate and there could be plenty of cheaper value so we might be left having to hunt down just the raw points at the top of the salary ladder. I’m for sure worried about blowout here with the Lakers favored by 13.5 points at home against the Knicks. That would the one concern in cash games. But Lebron also has such a high floor considering the scoring and assist numbers are still coming in bunches. He’s averaging 24 points and 11 assists per game over the last month plus to go with about nine rebounds. Of course, those numbers are coming off bigger minutes and this game could get late early. But I think you can offset enough of the risk with cheaper plays elsewhere, at least on FanDuel.
OG Anunoby FD - $4800 DK - $5400
Opponent -
PORProj Pts FD - 29.44 DK - 29.24
I really want to believe that the Raptors’ injury situation will open up more shots for O.G., at least on a more consistent basis. But that hasn’t always been the case. It’s been a weird run for him, even coming off the bench two games ago. He’s got some double-double games in there with double-digit shots at times, but it’s sporadic. That being said, FVV out along with the other bigs theoretically opens up enough opportunity along the margins to take a shot on him at these prices.
If Kevin Love sits again I do think
Cedi Osman (FD $4400 DK $4500) is interesting.
The same for
Carmelo Anthony (FD $5800 DK $5700) and
Kent Bazemore (FD $4000 DK $3800) if McCollum were to sit out again.
Power Forward
Anthony Davis FD - $11600 DK - $10700
Opponent -
NYProj Pts FD - 58.66 DK - 58.49
On Sunday, Davis had 33 FanDuel points just on defensive stats with eight blocks and three steals against the Pistons. Sure those numbers are a bit (a lot) of an outlier but this is a dude averaging 2.6 blocks and 1.4 steals per game this season. And on FanDuel, that’s worth a ton. This is a cake matchup against the Knicks and as I’ve mentioned there is some risk the game is totally out of hand before the fourth quarter. That does make Davis, possibly, on the outside looking in for cash games when compared to Lebron and Drummond (who we’ll get to in a second). But Davis is has that defensive upside on FanDuel and isn’t all that expensive on DraftKings.
Christian Wood FD - $4700 DK - $5500
Opponent -
CLEProj Pts FD - 33.49 DK - 33.21
Sekou Doumbouya FD - $4600 DK - $4600
Opponent -
CLEProj Pts FD - 25.34 DK - 25.01
There’s a case to stack these two together on FanDuel, and maybe avoid Anthony Davis. Wood and Doumbouya started together (along with Drummond) against the Lakers playing 30 ad 34 minutes respectively. Neither was all that productive though that can be somewhat forgiven against a stout Lakers’ defense. The Cavaliers shouldn’t offer up anything close to the same resistance. Neither is coming at punt prices at this point, but have solid minutes’ floors considering just how banged up the Pistons are and Detroit probably wants to get extended looks at both if Drummond is on his way out the door. I think we see them continue getting big run and you have to like the matchup.
Center
Andre Drummond FD - $10300 DK - $9700
Opponent -
CLEProj Pts FD - 53.9 DK - 53.27
As I’ve mentioned throughout the article, it sure appears Drummond is going to get traded somewhere before the deadline with the question really not “if” but “when”. That being said, as evidenced by the Lakers’ game, Detroit is still more than willing to play him extended minutes in the right situation. He ran 41 and finished with 12 points and 18 rebounds. In fact, he’s had 18 rebounds in three of the last five games. The scoring hasn’t really been there, but that’s on the back of a few bad shooting games. He’s still very much worth it at these prices and is basically a lock on DraftKings at sub-$10K with the double-double bonus nearly assured and the minutes not really in doubt.
If Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson sat again then
Ante Zizic (FD $3500 DK $4600) is an interesting FanDuel play at the minimums.
Karl-Anthony Towns is questionable every freaking night at this point and doesn't seem all that close to playing.
Gorgui Dieng (FD $6000 DK $6800) is still an option here.
Hassan Whiteside (FD $8900 DK $8600) has turned in some monsters lately and this is now a very undersized and injured Raptors' team.
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