Philadelphia 76ers' Joel Embiid in action during an NBA basketball game against the Miami Heat, Monday, Nov. 21, 2016, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)
It's the last NBA slate of the year. We've got seven games on the schedule and my oh my is it shaping up to be a tricky one. For starters, Jaylen Brown and D'Angelo Russell are out while Luka Doncic, James Harden, and Danilo Gallinari are all holding a questionable tag. In spite of the uncertainties, our NBA projection system is hard at work spitting out the top plays of the day. The action tips off at 3 PM eastern time, so let's get to it.
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Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 51.02 DK - 54.67
We'll be tapping into the Toronto well several times today as they draw the best matchup of the day against the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavs have the third-worst overall defense from a fantasy perspective, and are ranked in the bottom five in assists, steals, and blocks allowed. They're particularly generous to opposing point guards, which is why we love Kyle Lowry tonight. Lowry has seen no fewer than 35 minutes in every game the champs have played this month, and averaged 40.2 Fanduel points per game. The Fanduel price is inexplicably on the decline, which makes him almost a must have there, but even approaching $9K on DraftKings, given the available options on this slate and the matchup, Lowry is a top play in cash games across the industry.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 41.03 DK - 42.73
In four games since the Pistons managed to hold him to just two points, Kemba Walker has been shooting lights out for the Celtics most recently dropping 30 against the Raptors on Saturday. For a player so reliant on making baskets, that's exactly what we want to see from Walker, and I'm looking for the shots to continue falling today in Charlotte. The Hornets aren't the most ideal matchup but Walker stands to benefit from a usage bump with Jaylen Brown ruled out due to illness. If we remove that game against the Pistons from the equation, Walker is averaging 26.2 points per game this month in no fewer than 28 minutes.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 52.19 DK - 53.31
James Harden is listed as questionable for tonight's game against the Nuggets with a toe sprain that kept him out of Sunday's game against the Pelicans, a game that Russell Westbrook also sat out on the tail end of a back to back. Westbrook should be good to go tonight, and if Harden is ruled out again, you have to consider running with Westy right? Westy continues to be a scoring machine and has paid over 5X PPD (points per dollar) in all but four games played this month, capping off at 7.1X. Denver can be tough on opposing point guards, so this play is reliant on Harden sitting out, but if he does then run with Westbrook.
You'll also want to give some strong consideration to Austin Rivers (FD $4200 DK $4500) if Harden is ruled out. Rivers started on Sunday and saw 29 minutes on the boards.
Jalen Brunson (FD $3900 DK $3600) was quite the play when Luka Doncic missed a trio of games earlier in the month with an ankle issue. Now it's his wrist and back causing concern so Brunson, whose price has returned to near minimum, could get the call once again in the Dallas backcourt.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 40.89 DK - 41.16
Fred VanVleet is six games returned from a knee injury and hasn't missed a beat. Since his return on the 20th, VanVleet is averaging 16 points 4.1 rebounds, and 6.5 assists per game and has contributed several solid fantasy outings against some of the leagues tougher defenses. Tonight he gets the much easier task of contending with the Cavaliers in a game with a 102.4 combined pace factor. The opening projection out of Vegas is for a modest 216 total with the Raptors heavily favored, I expect to see plenty of VanVleet stuffing the stat sheet making a terrific cash game option in the upper tier.
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 28.61 DK - 29.45
The Warriors will be without Ky Bowman and D'Angelo Russell due to illness tonight, so anticipate a healthy helping of Damion Lee in San Antonio. Lee has been playing a ton even with Russell and Bowman active. In his last five games, he's averaged 32.4 minutes per game and at times has far exceeded value. Now with Bowman and Russell off the court, he sees his usage jump 4.4 percent adding to the appeal. Lee, who has double-doubled twice in his last three games, is priced far too low for the potential opportunity he sees tonight against the Spurs, who are a league-average fantasy matchup, allowing the fifth most scoring to opposing shooting guards. I plan to have Lee in just about every one of my lineups, and you may want to do the same.
Danilo Gallinari is questionable for tonight's game against the Mavericks, if his ankle keeps him off the court for a fifth straight contest considerShai Gilgeous-Alexander (FD $7400 DK $7000) who continues to outperform his price tag.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 28.92 DK - 28.43
Have I mentioned yet just how great the matchup is tonight for the Raptors against the Cavaliers? I honestly don't think I can sell this enough. Opposing small forwards are averaging nearly 45 Fanduel points per game when facing the Cavs, who are a bottom ten defense in every metric available. OG Anunoby isn't one of the studs we think of when we normally discuss the Raptors, but given the matchup and the fact that his price is back down below $5K on both sites for the first time in nearly two weeks, this is the perfect time to get our OG on. Anunoby's ability to stuff the stat sheet makes him a potential threat to go off at any moment, and all of the factors are lining up in his favor tonight. Anunoby has paid 5.6X PPD in four of his last eight games and tonight promises the potential to be yet another.
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 31.86 DK - 32.11
Alec Burks has been bouncing back and forth between the Warriors' first and second units, but whether starting or coming in off the bench, his minutes and performance have remained consistent. The price meanwhile, has slowly been on the decline and is at a sweet spot tonight as the Warriors hit the road to take on the Spurs. Off the bench this month, Burks is averaging 28 minutes per game, compared to 33 in four games as a starter, and he has scored in double digits in every game except one. This game sports a 220 projected total and features two below-average defenses from a fantasy perspective. If we can lock in a possible 30 minutes and a complete game from both ends of the court, then that's a no-brainer. Burks is a solid 5X floor play with the potential for 6.5X upside.
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 44.87 DK - 46.25
PG13's price on Fanduel has plummeted in the past couple of weeks, meanwhile, he's coming off of his best performance in that same period, a 20 point, 10 rebound outing against the Jazz. It was the first time in four games that George has hit the 20 point mark and if he's able to continue the scoring while notching the peripherals, it will only be a matter of time before the price returns to the low to mid $9000 range, so now is the perfect time to get on board with Paul George in the bargain bin.
With Jaylen Brown ruled out, Gordon Hayward (FD $6500 DK $6400) stands to see a significant bump in usage, and warrants strong consideration.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 27.65 DK - 27.04
This position....woof!! It's not pretty. The good news is we can likely get out without spending hardly any salary. Clint Capela is questionable and could likely miss a third straight game as the Rockets host the Nuggets. If he's unable to go, then Isaiah Hartenstein becomes a top punt. Hartenstein ran the boards for 34 minutes on Sunday with both Capela and Tyson Chandler unavailable and paid off over 10X PPD. Even with Chandler starting on Saturday, Capela's absence alone was enough for Hartenstein to pick up 24 minutes and pay 7X. Chandler will be available tonight, and will likely draw the start at the five for Houston, but as long as Capela remains out Hartenstein will hold tremendous fantasy appeal.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 24.41 DK - 24.58
Paul Millsap remains sidelined for the Nuggets with a knee injury, so look to Jerami Grant to draw a third consecutive start in the Denver front court. Through his last two starts Grant has averaged 32 minutes and 23.6 fantasy points while dropping double digit scoring for his fourth straight game. Grant is far from a must play type of guy, but this position is just straight up ugly today and looks to be one we're going to piecemeal together meaning Grant is definitely in the conversation
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 24.14 DK - 24.01
Willie Cauley-Stein will be out of commission tonight due to illness, leading to a bump in playing time for Omari Spellman. Just how much of a bump is the question at hand, This is a guy who saw a combined 12 minutes in the last three games he was available for. When he is given the time, however, Spellman is certainly capable of outperforming his bargain-basement pricing. I don't think I'll go there in cash unless I'm really hurting for a punt and Capela takes Hartenstein out of the running, but there is potential for big-time reward for those who take the risk on Spellman in tournaments tonight.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 51.28 DK - 53.47
It's becoming more and more apparent that this is Joel Embiid's world, we're all just living in it while enjoying watching what he can do on the court each night. Embiid has been absolutely phenomenal for the Sixers this season, double-doubling in fourteen of his last sixteen games, most recently dropping 35 points along with 11 rebounds in a 36 minute overtime loss to the Heat this weekend. Today's matchup is quite the draw as Indiana is a bottom-five defense against opposing centers this season, allowing the most scoring, and the fifth most rebounds to the position. The over/under leaves a little to be desired. Opening at a total of 212 it's projecting to be one of the lower-scoring affairs of the day, but the game is essentially a pick'em and I will not be at all surprised to see it hit the over. Our NBA projection system loves JoJo today, and given the value that's floating around out there, we should have no trouble spending up for him.
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 32.94 DK - 33.9
If you do need a cheaper alternative at center, then Steven Adams is your guy. Adams struggled against the Raptors on Sunday, but prior to that he was riding on a hot stretch that saw him average 15 points, 11 boards, 2.8 assists, and 1.5 steals over his previous four games. Embiid clearly draws the more appealing matchup of this pair, The Mavs are slightly above average defending against the five but don't let that dissuade you. This game has plenty to offer from a fantasy perspective, including a good looking 219 projection out of Vegas, a pace up factor in the Thunder's favor, and plenty of opportunity for Adams to get things back on track tonight. I suggest doing what you can to get Embiid locked in, but if you simply can't get it done, lock in Adams with confidence.
Thanks for reading, good luck tonight, and happy New Year!!
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