Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker (1) drives against Indiana Pacers center Myles Turner (33) during the second half of an NBA basketball game, Tuesday, Nov. 27, 2018, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Matt York)
Welcome friends to Monday night in the NBA. We've got a six-game slate on the agenda for the evening, and some pretty big question marks hangin' in the wind in the form of Giannis, Towns, Wiggins, and Beal. Join Jerry as he breaks down the top plays for our daily fantasy lineups according to our NBA daily fantasy projection system.
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Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 25.05 DK - 25.75
Let's start with the good news; point guard is the only position with no question marks this evening. Young and Kyrie both remain out, leaving Damian Lillard as the only big money option at the position, however, there's plenty of value to be had out there. First up, we have Kendrick Nunn. Nunn has been relatively quiet since torching the Sixers earlier in the month, but his price has come down in the short term and he's still good for 5X PPD (points per dollar) regularly. Tonight he draws a Washington team that is average defending against the point while playing the second-fastest pace in the NBA. As long as the minutes are there, Nunn should be in for a solid night of production at a position with little to desire.
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 41.99 DK - 43.44
The Spencer Dinwiddie star seems like it may be starting to fizzle out. After what can be marked a solid month, Dinwiddie is ending December with a whisper, scoring just 17 points in 33 minutes against the Rockets on Saturday. The 11 assists were the saving grace for fantasy purposes, but he still failed to deliver 4X PPD. I'm looking for a nice bounce-back tonight, however, against a Timberwolves team ranked bottom ten defending against opposing point guards, while allowing the second-most scoring to the position. Bonus if Minnesota is without KAT and Andrew Wiggins.
Speaking of Andrew Wiggins, consider Jeff Teague if Wiggins sits again, but keep in mind he didn't exactly play a ton on Saturday.
I mentioned Damian Lillard earlier, if we're forced to run value at other positions, we may be forced to pay up for Dame here, and if that's the case our system is perfectly fine with that.
Before the Brooklyn - Minnesota game, check out Doug Norrie and Adam Armbrecht on We Got Nets, their Brooklyn Nets Podcast.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 38.11 DK - 40.6
Devin Booker is coming to us fresh off of one of his best fantasy performances of the season Saturday night in Sacramento. in 40 minutes against the Kings, Booker dropped 32 points and dished out 10 assists, along with three boards, and two steals. It was his second straight game paying off over 5.5X PPD, and if it's a sign of things to come, it won't be long before we see Booker return to the $8K price range, meaning now is the time to get our exposure. This is one of the only games that I have an opening line on from Vegas as of Sunday night, and it's everything we want in a DFS matchup; high total (231), and low spread (4.5). We've got two of games fastest-paced offenses going at it, so this game should present a ton of opportunity for Booker to crush at these prices.
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 35.65 DK - 33.44
Bradley Beal missed Saturday's game against the Knicks with a leg injury and is currently questionable for tonight's game hosting the Heat. If Beal rides the pine another night, then we have to consider Gary Payton, and quite frankly, even if Beal plays, it's hard to argue against Payton while he remains priced so low. In three games, just one without Beal, Payton is averaging 11.6 points, 7.3 rebounds, four assists, and 4.3 steals in 31.3 minutes and has paid at least 5.9X PPD each time out. Miami presents a slightly tougher matchup than New York and Detroit, but they're nothing to be afraid of in the least.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 44.63 DK - 46.4
Giannis currently sits questionable for tonight's contest against the Bulls. If he is unable to go then Khris Middleton once again becomes a strong option to consider at the two. Middleton has averaged 22 points, 6.5 rebounds, and seven assists over the last two games with Giannis sidelined, a situation which sees his usage spike 7.1 percent. Even if Giannis plays, I think we can consider Middleton, but the two cheaper guys above will be much more appealing.
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 29.3 DK - 30.57
Joe Ingles has spent most of December running with the Utah starting squad, and his price has not increased significantly in spite of several strong performances. Take Saturday night's 15/6/8 line in 33 minutes against the Clippers for example. In that game Ingles paid at least 5.9X PPD on these prices for the third straight game. Even with the scoring down, Ingles managed to pick up enough in the peripherals to make up the difference, which is what makes him such an appealing play. Tonight's contest is quite appealing as it's against the Pistons, who allow the second-most scoring and eighth-most fantasy points to opposing wings. The opening line from Vegas has this one projected for 218 total points with the Jazz favored by 9.5 points, so there may be some blowout concern, but Ingles minutes have remained fairly consistent since moving into the starter role, so I'm not too worried.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 27.2 DK - 27.91
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 25.83 DK - 26.04
Next up we have a double-dip of the Hawks as they head into Orlando for a tilt with the Magic. Atlanta is coming off of a humiliating defeat at the hands of the Bulls. De'Andre Hunter was only able to muster six points, three boards, and three dimes in 30 minutes, this on the tail of a loss to the Bucks that wasn't any better. The thing about Hunter is he has shown the potential to be a prolific daily fantasy play, and the short term struggles have managed to bring his low price even lower. If he scares you, however, then maybe consider the cheaper Cam Reddish. Reddish drew the start against Chicago while Trae Young was sidelined with an ankle injury. Young has already been ruled out for tonight, and we didn't get a good look at what Reddish may be able to bring to the table due to the blowout, though in 27 minutes, he did just enough to pay 5X mixing five boards and six assists in spite of only scoring just two points. If Atlanta can manage to keep tonight's game somewhat competitive enough to get Reddish and Hunter over the 30-minute mark, then both should be able to outperform on these prices and pay dividends in our lineups.
Jarrett Culver is dirt cheap, and could potentially draw another start in place of the currently questionable Andrew Wiggins.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 44.55 DK - 45.27
Bam is one of our NBA projection system's top overall plays in both points per dollar and overall raw point projection, and it's not hard to see why. In his last ten games, Bam has exceeded 5X in seven games, with five double-doubles and two triple-doubles, while averaging 37.3 minutes per game. He's coming off of a less than stellar outing against a stingy Sixers defense, but tonight the tide turns in his favor against a Wizards team allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to the position. It's the perfect situation for Bam and an excellent spot to spend up with so much value at other positions.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 43.73 DK - 44.42
John Collins has looked incredible since rejoining the Hawks, and with Trae Young out indefinitely with his ankle injury, he may have returned at just the right time, as the Hawks need all the help they can get right now. On Saturday with no Young, Collins carried the team providing much of the offense against the Bulls himself. In three games Collins has averaged a double-double while recording eight blocks and three steals. The Magic are slightly below average defending against the four while allowing the most rebounds to the position in the NBA. As long as Young remains inactive, look to Collins to continue to take the reigns in Atlanta and provide top value every time he takes the court.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 32.32 DK - 32.62
Ersan Ilyasova's price continues to tick upward while starting for the injured Giannis, but there's still plenty of room for growth before we have to consider the fade. In two straight starts, Illy has averaged just 25 minutes but has paid over 7X PPD on these prices with two straight double-doubles. If Giannis is ruled out once again, Ilyasova becomes a must-play once again in a superb matchup against the Bulls, who sit in the bottom three defensively at the position in points allowed, rebounds, steals, and blocks.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 30.51 DK - 31.35
Deandre Ayton is out once again, so look for Aron Baynes to continue running with the Phoenix starters. It will be his fifth straight start, a stretch that has him posting 20.38 FD points per game, in 29 minutes average. The real draw here is the matchup against the Blazers, who sit amongst the bottom ten defending against opposing centers this season, in a game with a 104.5 combined pace factor. We've already established this game promises to be a strong draw from a fantasy persepctive, and Baynes remains a top value as long as he continues to start.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 37.06 DK - 36.94
Karl-Anthony Towns once again sits with the questionable/game-time decision tag that has been the norm for the past several games. This wouldn't be an issue if the Wolves were playing on the east coast and we knew something before lock, but they like to keep us sweating until the last second. Until they release a definitive update on KAT, I will continue to look to Gorgui Dieng to start at the five for Minnesota, where he has proven incredibly effective over the last six contests. In his last four games, Dieng has paid 5.2X-8.2X PPD, at an average of 32 minutes per game with two double-doubles, and 11 steals. The Nets are terrible defending against opposing bigs, so I'm remaining hopeful that we get word on KAT early enough because nothing would make me happier than to lock Dieng in at the five and build the remainder of my lineups from there.
If Towns returns and takes Dieng out of the equation, and you're not sold on Baynes, then consider Brook Lopez ranked very high in our system, though you can only run so many Bucks.
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