FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Sunday, 12/29/19

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Point Guard

Kyle Lowry FD - $8000 DK - $10000
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 47.99 DK - 50.2
You can't play Lowry on DraftKings at these prices, but the FanDuel price is comically low. We know he's playing 40 minutes a game in close contests, and with Toronto sitting as just 2.5 point favorites against the Thunder this game projects to be just that. He was on five straight games topping 40 fantasy points before the Christmas day debacle, and outside of these tough Boston match-ups he should be just fine. OKC doesn't represent the best match-up, as they play pretty slowly with league average defense, but on a small slate I'm just grabbing Lowry at this value price for the floor alone.

Austin Rivers FD - $3700 DK - $3800
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 18.87 DK - 19.25

With Westbrook already ruled out of this one, it seems like a pretty easy call to just slide Austin Rivers into your DFS lineups on FanDuel and DraftKings. He didn't start the last time Russ was out, but he did contribute a wildly solid 14/5/5 line with two blocks against the Pistons. I don't see how the Rockets get away with playing Rivers for fewer than 25 minutes, and Rivers should be a great cash game play in this, erm, revenge game.

The Pelicans don't seem to know what they want to do with Ball right now, as he followed an 18 minute start against the Trail Blazers with a 36 minute start against the Nuggets.

Chris Paul is still pretty cheap, and Lonzo Ball is an interesting upside target in a fast paced match-up with a Rockets team that will sit Russell Westbrook but return Eric Gordon in this one.

Shooting Guard

James Harden FD - $11500 DK - $10700
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 66.21 DK - 69.05

No Westbrook? Against a team that's playing a top 5 pace with a bottom 6 defensive efficiency? Get ready to back up the truck, folks. Harden is still too cheap even when Russ plays, as evidenced by his 75% cash game ownership on a huge slate on Saturday. On a much smaller Sunday slate he could be nearly unanimously owned, especially if people talk themselves into Rivers on the cheap.

Devonte' Graham FD - $7600 DK - $7900
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 39.43 DK - 41.51
The Hornets have found something special in Devonte Graham, and it sure looks like they know it. According to NBA tracking data, Graham's time of possession has risen steadily all season, and both his points and assists are the better for it. With 9 or more assists in three of his last four contests, he's a "shooting guard" in name only, and the price still lags his current production. Memphis, meanwhile, has totally flipped the script on their old defensive reputation, playing the league's 5th worst defense with the 6th fastest pace. Throw in a tight 3 point spread and Graham should have a very solid floor here.

Also considered: Buddy Hield, given how large his role should be today.

Small Forward

LeBron James FD - $10000 DK - $9800
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 54.79 DK - 58.23

There was some buzz that LeBron could sit Saturday night's game, so I'm going to keep a close eye on his status before just locking him into cash games. But if he does play? He's still a tremendous value. Whether he thinks Luka is a bad mother or not, the King still put together an effortless 25/9/8 in their last meeting, and he's still just too cheap against the teams that can actually play the Lakers tight enough to make them play their starters.

OG Anunoby FD - $5300 DK - $5400
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 28.66 DK - 28.29

Danuel House FD - $4900 DK - $4800
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 24.75 DK - 25.13

I can see an argument for either of these guys here. Anunoby is falling cheap because of a series of wacky game scripts, getting blown out by the C's on Christmas and then getting into foul trouble against them on Saturday. If he's really a 32-35 minute rotation guy, he's just too cheap right now. House will be one of the many Rockets who benefits from Westbrook's absence, and should have a tremendous floor here. With a gun to my head I'd like to play House in cash games and dream on OG for big tournaments.

Power Forward

P.J. Tucker FD - $4700 DK - $4800
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 25.54 DK - 25.49
With Capela already ruled out of Sunday's game as well, PJ should see a lot of minutes at the five, and given that he is already locked into high 30s minute rotations every single game I just don't see how he doesn't hit his value against this fast but terrible New Orleans team. Spreading around the extra usage from Capela and Russ just makes PJ a no-brainer at a tough position.

Serge Ibaka FD - $7400 DK - $7800
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 39.16 DK - 40.7

Ibaka has suffered from the same game script weirdness as Anunoby, but the Washington and Indiana games point to what his role should be with Siakam still out of the picture. In those two games, Ibaka played his full rotation, and strung together an average of 23 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 2 blocks. I particularly like this match-up because the Thunder aren't long on ways on run Ibaka into foul trouble down low, and Vegas has this one as a 3.5 point game.

If LeBron misses, and honestly even if he plays, Anthony Davis still looks like a great pay-up option in his own right.

Also considered: Jerami Grant and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, but there is risk there of course.

Center

Steven Adams FD - $6400 DK - $7200
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 33.27 DK - 34.05
With great plays at every other position, center is where things get a little bit messy tonight. Thankfully, we have Adams as our relative light in the darkness. Adams has been one of these guys who's a pretty steady 30-35 fantasy points a game guy so long as the minutes are flowing, and lately they've been doing just that. Paul has been getting involved more than usual on the offensive end, and his season average of 8 shots a game has been getting nudged upward. If his true opportunity is the 10+ shots we've been seeing in the last three games, you can expect this price to rise in short order. While the Raptors aren't a good match-up, it's a spot better without Gasol there, and Adams' size should give his former teammate at least some trouble down low.

Center after Adams:
Toronto: Doesn't field the position for DFS purposes.
Houston and New Orleans: Injuries mean they don't field the position.
Sacramento and Denver: Jokic is the only qualifier, and he's too expensive.
Charlotte and Memphis: Two high upside but volatile plays in Biyombo and Valanciunas. Just hope you guess right.

Dallas and LA: Powell has some 30 minute games, and he is another close consideration here.

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