Los Angeles Lakers forward Anthony Davis dribbles during the first half of a preseason NBA basketball game against the Golden State Warriors Wednesday, Oct. 16, 2019, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)
After a few slow days in the midst of the holiday season, we're staring at a monster slate here. In fact, we have 14 games on this slate, with just two teams sitting. That is going to cause chaos in terms of injury reports and resting, especially considering there's a handful of teams playing in the second half of a back-to-back set. With that in mind, let's get into our favorite plays of the day!
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Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 32.15 DK - 32.23
We're going to kick things off with a couple of cheap point guards in order to get some studs into our build later. Satoransky is just that, as he's one of the best values of the day in the $6,000-range. The recent form from Sato is simply stupendous, scoring at least 35 DK points in four-straight games. That extends a streak in which he's averaging 28.3 fantasy points per game across his last 16 fixtures. He gets those fantasy points by stuffing the stat sheet and that should be a relatively easy task here with Atlanta ranked 28th in defensive efficiency and 29th in points allowed.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 34.88 DK - 34.36
Payton is actually a very similar player to Satoransky because he too provides fantasy value through his stat-stuffing ways. He's shown that all the way back to his Orlando days and capturing the starting point guard role in New York is what's really made him valuable. In his three starts, Elf is averaging 34 DK points per game across 29.7 minutes of action. That's the rate we've seen throughout his career and he should continue to produce as long as he keeps getting the playing time. Facing Washington is the best part of this play though, with the Wizards ranked last in nearly every defensive metric.
If Malcolm Brogdon is out again, don't forget about Aaron Holiday.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 63.72 DK - 66.67
After a couple of nice values at point guard, let's get the stud of the slate into our build. In a 14-gamer like this, it's imperative to land those raw points. Harden is the best bet to get you those raw points, leading the NBA with 62.5 DK points per game. What's amazing about that is the fact that he's only the third-highest priced player on the slate which is truly criminal with the way he'ss balling out right now. We have to love that production and this discount against a Nets club who sits 18th in total defense. In his one game against Brooklyn last season, Harden collected 58 points, 10 rebounds and six assists in one of the most spectacular performances of the year.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 29.82 DK - 29.55
With Malcolm Brogdon potentially missing this game, Lamb could be one of the best values on the board. The thing that makes him attractive here is this price tag. The wiry shooting guard is usually in the $6,000-range and it's hard to understand why he's such a bargain in such a good matchup. Not only is he averaging 27 DraftKings points per game for the year, he's also coming off a 28-point, 35-minute gem in his last outing. Getting to play 35 minutes against the Pelicans would be an absolute treat, with the Pelicans sitting 26th in points allowed and 28th in defensive efficiency.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 31.77 DK - 32.98
Morris is in the midst of a career year and these DFS sites are treating him like his brother. While they do look similar, Marcus has proven that he's the superior player this season. In fact, Morris has probably been the Knicks best player in total, averaging 31 DK points per game. That alone is a nice value and we absolutely love this $5,200 price tag on FanDuel. The best part about playing Morris is the matchup though, with the Wizards ranked last in points allowed and defensive efficiency. That horrid defense should keep these bad teams playing a competitive game and that's even better for DFS purposes.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 31.54 DK - 31.65
Indiana is sneakily one of the best stacks on the board, with Lamb and Warren being two of the best options on the wing. His recent outings show just how special this dude can be with Brogdon out, as he's put up an average of 6x+ points per dollar in his last two games. Anyone with the potential to play 35-plus minutes and take 20-plus shots is definitely in play, particularly when they're sitting below $6,000 on both sites. A gem like that becomes very enticing against New Orleans too, with the Pelicans surrendering the third-most fantasy points to opposing SFs this season. If Brogdon is out, Warren is easily one of the best plays out there.
Khris Middleton would be one of the best plays on the board if Giannis Antetokounmpo is out again, as he was 90%+ owned last night.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 60.05 DK - 59.54
We've provided you with a ton of great values thus far but Davis is in the same boat as Harden. There aren't many players with legitimate 70-point upside but AD is certainly one of them. That's clear when you see that he's averaging 52.4 DK points per game which is actually closer to a 60-point average over the last month. What adds to his intrigue here is the fact that LeBron James might be out, which is about 25 points, eight rebounds, 10 assists, 20 shots and 35 minutes out of the lineup. Davis will surely take on most of that and it shouldn't be an issue to abuse a Portland front court who allows the second-most fantasy points to opposing big men this season. Davis has his own injury question marks, so do keep an eye on this as it leads up to line-up lock.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 32.79 DK - 33.7
Favors' price has steadily been rising and he's earned every bit of it. The thing that's added to his value is the increase in playing time, tallying at least 30 minutes in back-to-back games. This is a dude who's been limited by injuries and family matters this year but is still averaging 25.7 DK points across 22 minutes a game. That equates to about 37 fantasy points in 30 minutes of action which is brilliant from a player in this price range. The Pacers have been struggling with big men too, surrendering the most fantasy points in the league to opposing centers this season.
If Antetokounmpo is out again, look for Ersan Ilyasova to get another start.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 35.44 DK - 33.71
Dieng has been an absolute stud in the absence of Karl-Anthony Towns and he's nearly impossible to fade if KAT sits out again here. In his seven starts for Towns this season, Dieng has scored at least 25 DK points in all of them while averaging over 34 DK points per game. That's no surprise when you see that he's playing 31 minutes a game over the last five starts while flirting with double-double averages (15.6 points and 9.8 rebounds). While we can't use Dieng unless Towns is out, this is something you need to remember. Not to mention, Cleveland owns a 24th OPRK against opposing centers this season while sitting 29th in defensive efficiency.
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 29.97 DK - 30.89
This $4,100 price tag on FanDuel is laughable. While Baynes has been struggling recently, he's produced all season long when starting. That's sure to be the case again here, with DeAndre Ayton already ruled out because of an ankle issue. In his 15 starts this season, Baynes is averaging 29 FD points per game in about 25 minutes of play. If he provides that rate in the 30 minutes we've seen in the last three games, we could be looking at 30-35 FanDuel points. That's flirting with 8X upside at this price tag and that's simply impossible to overlook. Getting to face the Kings is the cherry on top, with Sacramento surrendering the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing centers this season.
Centers have been killing Brooklyn this season, which puts Clint Capela in play with his 20-20 upside.
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