Minnesota Timberwolves forward Andrew Wiggins (22) pushes the ball around Toronto Raptors guard Terrence Ross (31) in the first half of an NBA basketball game Wednesday, Feb. 10, 2016, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Stacy Bengs)
It's Christmas week, and before we get to Wednesday's gift of an entire day chock-full of marquee matchups to tear us away from our loved ones, we start the week out with an eleven game slate of basketball action tipping off at 7 PM ET this evening. Jerry has been tirelessly crunching all the numbers and now presents to you our top NBA plays for Monday night. Enjoy!
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Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 51.43 DK - 52.7
What more can be said about Russell Westbrook? Since leaving OKC for Houston, from a fantasy perspective, the man hasn't missed a beat. He's an ever-present triple-double threat, with a double-double all but guaranteed most nights. He sandwiched a season-high 40 point game in between two 30 point performances and has paid over 5X PPD (points per dollar) in eight of his last nine games played. This is one of several games on the agenda this evening with a projected total over 225 and the opening line sits at a mere 5.5 point spread. Since the calendar flipped over to December Westbrook has been playing some of his best ball of the season and that should continue this evening in a league-average matchup.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 29.18 DK - 29.26
The league, passed down a suspension for Isaiah Thomas, so look for Ish Smith to likely step into the starting role at the point for Washington while IT serves his time. Smith was a nonfactor in 20 minutes off the bench against Philly, but that was on the heels of 26 points in 29 minutes against the Raptors the night prior. With IT off the court, Ish sees his usage rise nearly 6% and in his career as a starter he's averaged 12.9 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 5.9 assists per game. The matchup is favorable against the Knicks, who present a slightly below average defensive matchup against opposing point guards, in the game with the highest projected total of the evening. I don't know that Ish will be chalk this evening, but as a value play, he is definitely worth a look in cash lineups.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 40.85 DK - 41.25
The Timberwolves continue their west coast road trip with a stop off in San Francisco for a tilt with the Warriors. While it's still unclear as of this writing what Karl Anthony Town's status for the match will be, that doesn't have any real impact on Andrew Wiggins. With or without KAT, Wiggins usage holds steady and he is a top option to consider at what is otherwise an ugly position tonight. The Warriors are terrible defending the two-guard spot, and Wiggins has been solid this season averaging 25.2 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 3.2 assists per game, all well above his career numbers. The price, especially on FanDuel, is hard to argue against, and there is a strong case to be made for Wiggins in cash tonight.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 35.7 DK - 37.83
After Wiggins, things get dicey really fast here at the two. Several factors play in Buddy Hield's favor though. I already mentioned the Vegas projections, add to that a matchup against a Houston team that runs the second-fastest pace in the NBA while playing the third-worst defense against the position and we have the makings of a favorable night for Hield. If that's not enough to sell you, then consider the price which has dropped to a season-low on FanDuel, and is not far off from that point on DraftKings.
It's worth mentioning that James Harden comes into the night with the highest projected raw point total in our system, and there is likely enough value to go around if you want to go there, but you don't necessarily have to and the aforementioned Westbrook is the Rockets play that will give you more bang for your buck.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 32.93 DK - 34.28
Things don't get all that much better once we get to the three. We'll start things off with Marcus Morris which should tell you all you need to know about the position as a whole. Morris didn't do a whole lot of anything against the Bucks in Saturday night's blowout loss, but before that, he was riding a string of several solid performances since his insane 36/10/3 night against the Warriors earlier this month. While we can't count on him to duplicate those numbers, he should outperform Saturday's totals against the Wizards who hold a bottom ten defense against small forwards and run the second-fastest pace in the Association forcing Morris and the Knicks to speed things up a bit.
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 36.86 DK - 37.29
Losing Pascal Siakam indefinitely puts a serious hurting on the position as a whole. You can consider paying up for Brandon Ingram, but I just don't feel the price is justifiable, so I'll likely turn to Tobias Harris against the Pistons. Philly got back on the winning track Saturday night against the Wizards and Tobi played a big part in that with his 16/6/4 line and two steals building towards a solid 30 minutes of play. It was Tobi's sixth straight contest with at least 30 minutes, and his fifth time in that stretch scoring double-digit points. The price is ticking downward and now is an excellent time to get in on Harris in a fantastic matchup.
Consider Kent Bazemore coming off of his best game of the season against the Wolves on Saturday in a pace up contest against a Pelicans defense ranked among the bottom ten defending against the three.
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 40.22 DK - 42.51
Domantas Sabonis is dealing with a hip issue but you wouldn't know that looking at his line from last night. In 30 minutes the leagues fifth leading rebounder picked up 18 boards to go along with 19 points and five assists in the Pacers loss to the Bucks. He's coming into the day with a gametime decision tag hanging overhead, but it seems all but certain he will play, and if he does, he's the top option to consider at the four against the Raptors in a game with a 102.6 pace factor and just a 5.5 points spread.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 35.86 DK - 39.36
Kevin Love has double-doubled in five of his last six contests, averaging 30 minutes per game in that time. With the back soreness that hindered him through much of the past month and a half in the rearview, Love is looking much improved these past few weeks. I'm not sure that price on DraftKings is justifiable, but on FanDuel where we need to have a second PF, I will definitely consider Love against the Hawks, who allow the third most fantasy points to opposing power forwards in the league.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 27.7 DK - 28.36
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 27.32 DK - 26.11
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 27.07 DK - 25.84
I'm just going to jumble these three guys together because really looking at the prices and the projections they're all pretty much the same. It's just a matter of who you think is going to give the best showing tonight. Aron Baynes will start his third straight game in place of Deandre Ayton who is contending with an ankle sprain. Baynes has averaged 10 points, five rebounds, and 2.5 assists in 28.5 minutes over those two games.
Ian Mahinmi will continue starting for the Wizards who remain without Mo Wagner and Thomas Bryant and now have lost Davis Bertans as well. Mahinmi has started five straight for Washington, and though he doesn't do much of any one thing, he does just enough of everything to make himself valuable to fantasy owners. The Knicks have been quite stingy against opposing big men this season, but for the price, Mahinmi should prove quite serviceable in tonight's high scoring shootout.
Lastly, we have Gorgui Dieng. This is the 'if' play. While those first two guys are sure to be starting, Dieng is reliant on Karl Anthony Towns, who currently sits listed as questionable with a knee sprain. Dieng has started three straight contests with Towns sidelined and in that time has proven to be an effective option, most recently notching a double-double against the Blazers on Saturday night. If Towns is forced to sit another one out Dieng is likely my favorite of this trio of options. Should Dieng return to the bench I'll likely run some mix of the other two.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 53.28 DK - 53.1
With enough value out there, that we may not even need to run those cheaper guys at the five, consider Andre Drummond if you've got the funds. JoJo and Joker are both overpriced for their matchups, and our system doesn't have them coming anywhere close to 5X PPD, but it does like Drummond fresh off of his eighth straight double-double, with 13 steals in his last three contests. Drummond has been an absolute beast in December and continues to see all of the minutes he can handle. There's more than enough value at the position that paying up isn't a necessity, but if you choose to, then make Drummond your play.
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