James Harden, de los Rockets de Houston, festeja luego de encestar un triple ante los Bulls de Chicago, el sábado 9 de noviembre de 2019 (AP Foto/Matt Marton)
After a big nine-game slate on Friday, we're back at it here with seven games. What is interesting about this slate is the fact that we have numerous teams in the second half of a back-to-back set. In fact, we have the Bulls, Clippers, Heat and Grizzlies all playing in the back end of a B2B. These are all teams that have a propensity to rest players in these circumstances, so that's going to be a major key in this article. With that in mind, let's breakdown this slate.
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Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 34.57 DK - 35.33
With Giannis Antetokounmpo dealing with a quad injury and suiting up on Friday, we're going to bet that he sits out here. When Giannis is out, Khris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe become two of the best plays on the board. With last year's MVP off the floor, Bledsoe is leading the team with a 33.4 percent usage rate while averaging 1.43 DK points per minute. That rate would equate to 50 fantasy points in 35 minutes of action which would be absurd production from a player in the $7,000-range. The matchup against Cleveland isn't too shabby either, with Cleveland ranked 26th in defensive efficiency.
NOTE: Bledsoe left Friday's game with a shin contusion which would make George Hill and Pat Connaughton good options if he sits out!
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 28.11 DK - 28.12
With Isaiah Thomas dealing with an ankle issue, Smith is one of the best values out there. The simple fact is, this dude has always been productive when starting. Not only has he played at least 31 minutes in the last four starts he's made, Smith has also scored at least 22 DK points in all of those. That 4X floor is hard to overlook and he's shown us in the past that he has 40/50-point potential whenever he receives 35 minutes of play. We especially love the speedster against a team like the Grizzlies, with Memphis ranked sixth in pace and 26th in points allowed.
If Goran Dragic is out again, Kendrick Nunn is definitely in consideration.
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 67.45 DK - 70.51
Harden is the best play on the board and it's impossible to fade him. The reason for that is because he's already the highest-scoring player in the NBA and gets to play this game without Russell Westbrook. With Russ off the floor, Harden has a 47.5 percent usage rate while averaging 1.8 DK points per minute. That's one of the best rates you'll ever see, equating to 72 fantasy points if he plays 40 minutes. Not to mention, he has 109 points, eight rebounds, 15 assists, four steals and five blocks across his last two games on 39-of-65 from the field. We're certainly not worried about a Detroit team who sits 19th in defensive efficiency either.
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 20.29 DK - 21.25
The Rockets are a tough team to fade with Westbrook expected to miss this game and McLemore might be the best value of the bunch. Over his last 15 games, McLemore is averaging 9.0 three-point attempts per game en route to over 22 DK points per outing. Getting up shots like that from a player in the $4,000s is hard to find and it makes it even more surprising when you see that he has at least 28 DK points in three of his last four games. As long as Westbrook is out, McLemore should get 30 minutes and double-digit shots, making him impossible to fade at this price.
Don't forget about Khris Middleton if Giannis sits out too.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 49.23 DK - 51.48
With Kawhi Leonard playing on Friday, it seems very possible that The Claw will sit this game out. That automatically makes George one of the best plays on the board, as he'll run the show for the Clippers in his absence. With Leonard off the floor, George has a 34 percent usage rate while averaging 1.6 DK points per minute. That was crystal clear when he collected 63 DK points in the last game without him about a week ago, and heck, he just put up 63 points last nice with Kawhi out there. Getting that sort of potential from a player at $8,300 on DraftKings is simply amazing and he's a free space if Leonard is out. Getting to face Chicago is solid too, with the Bulls posting a league-average defense at best.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 43.79 DK - 44.81
Siakam was rewarded with Most Improved Player honors last season and some could argue that he deserves the award again this year. We're talking about a guy who's averaging 24.5 points, 8.3 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 0.9 steals and 0.8 blocks per game en route to 44 DK points per outing for the year. That stellar average comes with an incredible floor, scoring at least 29 fantasy points in all but one game this season. The biggest reason we like him today is because he faces the Nets though, with Brooklyn ranked 18th in total defense.
Will Barton has been outperforming his price tag all season long and could see even more touches if Paul Millsap sits out.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 35.64 DK - 37.98
Recent results are not going to influence anyone to play Griffin but the usage numbers are still there. He leads the Pistons with a usage rate north of 30 percent while also leading the club in shots taken. That means a hot streak is inevitable from the perennial All-Star and we want to hop on the train before it gets too expensive. We're talking about a guy who was $8,000 on DraftKings less than two weeks ago and he's been playing even more since then! The reason we could see him breaking out of his slump is the matchup, with the Rockets ranked 24th in total defense and third in pace while surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 25.12 DK - 25.32
With the possibility of Paul Millsap missing this game, Grant could be one of the best values out there. The reason for that is because he'll surely enter the starting-five and play 30-plus minutes. Getting the minutes is all we can ask for, with Grant proving to be a fantasy point-per minute producer throughout his career. He's definitely shown that recently, averaging 21 DK points per game across 24 minutes over his last eight outings. The icing on the cake is this matchup though, as he gets a revenge game against his former team. And even if he's not seething and looking for revenge, OKC's lack of multiple interior defenders could open things up for him as well.
Davis Bertans is scorching-hot right now and is in play with Moritz Wagner and Thomas Bryant sidelined.
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 41.59 DK - 41.78
With Westbrook sitting this game out, Capela has no one battling him for rebounds in Houston. It's not like that was a big problem before anyway, with CC averaging 14.8 points, 17.9 rebounds and 2.2 blocks over his last 13 games. That comes out to a 45-point average, proving that this DK price tag makes no sense at all. Getting to oppose Andre Drummond should keep Capela heavily involved too because he's the only one on this roster who can match up with him. As long as the Rockets are playing at their blistering pace and Capela gets his usual 35 minutes, he should be a guarantee for a double-double with 20-20 upside.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 25.88 DK - 25.74
Gasol has not been scoring a whole lot this season but he's been fantastic because of his stat-stuffing abilities. Not only does he have at least 23 DK points in 12 of his last 15 games, Gasol also has at least 41 fantasy points in back-to-back fixtures heading into this matchup. That's 8X value at this price and we absolutely love the matchup against the Nets. In fact, Brooklyn is surrendering the third-most fantasy points to opposing centers this season.
If Antetokounmpo is out, Brook Lopez is hard to overlook in the $5,000's.
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