Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin (12) runs with the football after a reception against the Indianapolis Colts during the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Dec. 8, 2019, in Tampa, Fla. (AP Photo/Jason Behnken)
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Wilson is off some tough weeks that have seen a dip in production from a guy who was among the fantasy scoring leaders at the position for much of the first half of the season. The interceptions regressed some, throwing one in each of the last four games after not yielding a single one through the first seven. But now he heads into Carolina to face a Panther team fresh off giving up 40 to Atlanta in Week 14. The Seahawks 27.25 implied points are the second-highest of the main slate and Wilson should have his hand all over that number. He’s second only to Lamar Jackson in TD:INT rate this season and ranks fifth in quarterback rushing yards. I see this as a bounce back opportunity for Wilson with the price coming down in the short term.
Opponent LAR
Proj Points FD - 21.01 DK - 22.07
Only two teams in football have a losing record and a positive point differential: the Colts (+1.0) and the Cowboys (+67!!). And yet here they are in a borderline must-win game against the Rams at home as they struggled to keep a grip on the NFC East. Dak ranks fourth in FanDuel points per game and fifth on DraftKings. From a game-to-game consistency standpoint, he ranks behind only Lamar Jackson in coefficient of variation and he could be in a high volume spot against the Rams on Sunday. Prescott is averaging more than 38 pass attempts per game because of game scripts this season and though the rushing is down against his career numbers, he still has 223 yards this year. I love the DraftKings price especially where he’s the seventh-most expensive quarterback on the main slate. Keep an eye on any injury fallout from the hand issue that cropped up in Week 14 against the Bears, but he should be good to go.
Other thoughts
Patrick Mahomes is in another great spot but I’m a little worried about the injury situation there.
Carson Wentz has an okay matchup against the Redskins, but the Eagles just continue to lose skill position players to injury.
I think we're gearing up for a break out week for McCaffrey here. The price has trended down off of the absurd all time highs, but his usage has remained pretty much constant. He just had 23 plays drawn up for him in a game where his team lost by 20 points, so I think we can safely call that McCaffrey's floor. He had a solid wide receiver game with 11 catches for 82 yards, and was good on the limited carries he got as well. Seattle is no slouch here, but the Panthers are just six point dogs at home, which can only mean good things for McCaffrey's touches. If he gets back into the mid-20s touches and gets a touchdown he'll be the best play on the slate, and with lots of savings popping up elsewhere our system sees him as a cash game lock.
Opponent DAL
Proj Points FD - 17.26 DK - 18.98
Gurley is just too cheap on DraftKings right now, and I think you can make a compelling case for him on FanDuel as well. Ian Rapoport reported before Sunday's contest that the reigns would finally be taken off Gurley, and that they were. He touched the ball 27 times and amassed 113 yards and a touchdown. If he's going back to 2018 Gurley's opportunity but still priced like 2019 Gurley, we have a phenomenal situation almost regardless of the match-up. Dallas has been tougher against the run than they have been against the pass, but they aren't tough enough to scare us off of a Todd Gurley play that could be %20 too cheap.
Opponent SF
Proj Points FD - 14.11 DK - 15.67
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 15.03 DK - 16.09
Some interesting cheap options if you find yourself in need of an extra buck or two. Freeman was highly owned last week and performed admirably, racking up 94 yards and a touchdown on 21 total touches. The price hasn't moved, but the match-up against the Niners is dramatically worse, so there's certainly some risk here.
Laird is pretty unique case. Generally we don't really care about touches from such a terrible offense, but Laird brings just the right combination of being very cheap, highly used, and a great match-up. He touched the ball 19 times against the Jets, and while he wasn't anything special he was a heck of a lot better than Myles Gaskin was on his touches. The Giants just played their Superbowl last week against the Eagles, and with all the craziness there the Dolphins are just 3.5 point dogs heading into New Jersey. I can see Laird being the cash game lynch-pin that ties your lineup together.
Opponent DET
Proj Points FD - 12.78 DK - 15.32
Opponent DET
Proj Points FD - 7.47 DK - 8.81
It looks like Mike Evans is going to miss the rest of the season with a hamstring issue thereby effectively ending the question of whose turn it is to have a big week out of he and Godwin. Evans got hurt 18 snaps into the game in Week 14 and Godwin led the team targets with nine and finished at seven receptions for 91 yards. He should be in line for double-digit targets in this game and running out of the slot should at least get him more exposure to Justin Coleman rather than Darius Slay or Amani Oruwariye. It will cost you, but losing Evans’ 23% target share (118 on the season) really opens things up for the TB wide outs. Godwin is heading toward being a chalk play in Week 15 and still has massive upside.
Meanwhile, Justin Watson and Breshad Perriman now project as WR2 and WR3 respectively. Perriman played more snaps than Watson in Week 14 (65 to 43) but the latter out-targeted him 8 to 5. Both put up yards and each caught a TD. On FanDuel, Watson is the clear play at only $4500, but on DraftKings I do things are a little close. Both should see ownership and Watson is more likely to be the higher-owned guy. All in all, it adds up for major value across all price tiers on the Tampa Bay wideouts and they make some of the best plays for the week.
Opponent CIN
Proj Points FD - 18.54 DK - 22.72
Edelman is the fourth-highest scoring points-per-game DrafftKings wide receiver on the season and yet is priced as seventh overall even in the matchup against the Bengals. No matter, we’ll take it on a guy who ranks second behind only Michael Thomas in targets on the season. Sure, the yards aren’t there in the same way we see from other top-tier wideouts, and that’s what’s keeping the price on the lower side, but there’s just too much safety in the looks each week. He’s seen double digit targets in eight-straight weeks and will now face the 30th ranked DVOA defense. There’s some blowout risk for sure here which could ding the projection but overall you are just getting too good of a discount on Edelman.
Opponent OAK
Proj Points FD - 13.97 DK - 16.98
This one is a little more speculative, but on DraftKings the price is cheap enough that I think Westbrook is worth the risk. This is to say, he’s a solid play if D.J. Chark does indeed miss Week 15. The latter is considered week-to-week with the assumption that he’ll miss time. Westbrook would project as the highest target guy in the Jags “offense” and that’s worth something in the lower pricing tier on DraftKings.
Other thoughts
If Will Fuller is out again, then it would be time to lock and load DeAndre Hopkins right back into cash games. Hopkins saw 13 targets in a Week 13, putting up a 7/120/1 line even with Chris Harris shadow coverage.
Even after a poor showing in Week 14, I think I’m willing to go back to D.J. Moore on FanDuel even though the Panthers have major quarterback issues with Allen right now.
More like Hig-beast, am I right? Through two weeks Higbee has converted his 19 targets into 14 catches for 223 yards and a touchdown. That's the production you'd hope for from a wide receiver in the low $7,000s, and getting it at an undercosted tight end is a dream. The $3,900 price on DraftKings essentially assures his nearly unanimous cash game ownership there, and with the Rams offense finally clicking I'd guess we'll see Higbee's price rise dramatically in the coming weeks.
Opponent WAS
Proj Points FD - 15.56 DK - 19.11
If you're concerned that Higbee is a flash in the pan, we're still getting Ertz at a significant bargain to what he'd cost if he had been performing like this since the beginning of the season. He took a game off against Miami, but he garnered 13 targets in the overtime win against the Giants, and turned those into 9 catches for 91 yards and 2 touchdowns (including the game winner). He's the one safe outlet an otherwise lost Carson Wentz has right now, and with the Eagles miraculously still competing for a playoff spot I love him here in a must-win against the Redskins.
Other thoughts
Strongly consider O.J. Howard with Mike Evans out.
Drew Lock looked like the second coming of John Elway against the Texans last week, but color me just a little bit skeptical. There's certainly a chance that he rounds into a good quarterback, but we have seen countless examples of young QBs have success until the league gets a little film on them. The Chiefs are nothing special defensively, but they are about league average, and Vegas likes them as 11.5 point favorites this week. I actually like that the Broncos are trusting Lock a little bit more, as this should open up more turnover and sack potential. The Chiefs are also the NFL leader in sacks, which is arguably the stat that supports a DST's floor better than anything else. The Chiefs are just cheap here, and like we've said many times, spending up defensively is really a strategy best reserved for big tournaments.
Opponent PHI
Proj Points FD - 6.16 DK - 6.16
Three straight weeks of rostering the Redskins' defense has worked pretty well for us. The theory here is straightforward - DST is by far the position that rates to put up the worst points per dollar multiplies in any given week, and you therefore want to find the best option among the cheapest teams. The Redskins have allowed some points, sure, but they are 7th in sacks, 9th in interceptions, and fourth in forced fumbles this season. I don't mind grabbing them against an Eagles team that had trouble moving the ball against the Giants whatsoever.
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