FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Monday, 12/9/19

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Point Guard

Kemba Walker FD - $8100 DK - $8100
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 40.59 DK - 41.95
The Celtics have been able to pull away late in some games recently, meaning Walker hasn’t had to play a full run of minutes. And honestly, with Boston as -13.5 home favorites against the Cavaliers on Monday that could be the case again. The issue is that point guard, especially on FanDuel is a weaker one unless we get some solid injury news on other guys leading into lineup lock. Walker should be able to attack the Cavs’ lack of perimeter defense and this could look very much like a volume shooting game for Walker. He’s been averaging close to 19 shots per game over the last five and that’s even on somewhat limited minutes compared to his season average. I think the floor is high enough for Kemba but I am worried about the blowout risk.

After Walker, we are going to need to wait on some injury news before making some final decisions about the position.

If Fred VanVleet needs to sit this one out with the knee contusion then Kyle Lowry (FD 8000 DK 6800) becomes very interesting. The latter hasn’t had any minutes restrictions since coming back from injury and would be a candidate to play 40+ if FVV sits.

If Malcolm Brogdon sits again then Aaron Holiday (FD 3700 DK 4100) would make for a solid punt play. He played 28 minutes in the start last game and went for 12 points, five assists and four rebounds.

Shooting Guard

Lou Williams FD - $6800 DK - $6500
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 34.05 DK - 35.74
With Kawhi Leonard likely to sit on Monday, Lou Williams is in for a volume game against the Pacers. In the four games Kawhi’s sat this season, Lou-Will is averaging 23 points and nine assists on almost 16 shots per game. On DraftKings he’s an easy play considering the circumstances and the price. I suspect he’s something like a chalk play there no matter what. I suppose there’s a closer call on FanDuel but he’s likely the one of the most popular plays there as well. It’s helped that the Clippers have been healthy awhile and off back-to-backs because the price is totally reasonable here.

Donovan Mitchell FD - $8200 DK - $7400
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 42.61 DK - 43.78
The last couple of games without Mike Conley should have been fantasy gold for Mitchell considering he was taking over some of the point guard duties and the usage rate stood to increase. But that wasn’t the case at all and he posted pretty low scoring lines on each night. Averaging 25/4/4 on these prices (over the last two) just isn’t going to get it done. But I don’t mind going back to the well again on Mitchell with Conley out. He put up 24 and 17 shots respectively and both games were moderate blowouts (going each way). In a close one he’s a candidate to play something like 37-38 and the price without Conley isn’t correct if this is the case.

Other Thoughts
James Harden (FD 12200 DK 12000) could wind up making for the best spend-up option here, but I’m a little worried about the blowout with the Rockets coming in as -12 home favorites against the Kings.

Small Forward

Paul George FD - $8700 DK - $7800
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 42.55 DK - 44.22
It’s not a monster sample size and the minutes were even low to start, but when Kawhi doesn’t play George is averaging 28 points, six rebounds and three assists per game in just 26 minutes. Take his run to the hilt and you are looking at such an easy cash game play for Monday that I suspect he’s the chalk play on both sites. The Clippers have played it conservative with their guys for sure and the back-to-back has to make you wonder some. But the price doesn’t make it all that big a risk on George. It’s a pretty easy call all things considered.

Joe Ingles FD - $4300 DK - $5400
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 24.57 DK - 25.72
Like I said with Mitchell, the last couple of Jazz games without Conley have been weird ones. Both were blowouts and that leaves us somewhat guessing on the Utah plan when things stay close. Ingles got the start last game and went for 12 points and 10 assists in just 27 minutes, playing something like de facto point guard. In a close one I think the run ranges toward the mid-30’s and then we are looking like a lock cash play on FanDuel for sure. DraftKings is a bit closer, but I’m ultimately fine with the price there as well.

Other Thoughts
Harrison Barnes (FD 5600 DK 6000) has been playing a ton of minutes lately and could be in line for them again against the Rockets.

Power Forward

Daniel Theis FD - $4600 DK - $4200
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 25.47 DK - 23.94
This is far from a sexy play at power forward but is helped here with Robert Williams being out on Monday. That should open up 3-6 minutes for the big man at the minimum and that’s not an insignificant amount when you are talking about a guy at these prices. The Celtics will definitely do you dirty on their big man minutes and they run matchups as much as any team in the league. But Williams being out does make a difference here and I think Theis’s minutes are pretty safe all things considered. It’s hard to imagine him killing you on FanDuel at the sub-$5K price tag and the position is always so thin there that you have to make some concessions.

Lauri Markkanen FD - $6400 DK - $6100
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 31.38 DK - 32.28
This season I’ve been a little confused about the lack of consistency with Markkanen’s playing time. It’s come and gone with longer stretches of playing just mid-20’s minutes even in closer games. But the last week or so has see him go 30 or more four of the last five and in his last four games he’s averaging 19 points and six boards. The other big stat is the volume shooting from the perimeter. He’s taking more than nine three-pointers a game and knocking them down at a 43% clip. This is a very encouraging sign for the Bulls’ big man and I think he’s trending toward being a safer cash game play, something that hasn’t always been the case this season.

Other Thoughts
Frank Kaminsky (FD 5400 DK 5200) wouldn’t be a terrible cheaper play if starting for Baynes again, but the former did get buzzed off his minutes some last game.

Center

Montrezl Harrell FD - $7600 DK - $6800
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 35.55 DK - 34.67
Running a full-on Clippers’ stack? You got it. That’s what happens when prices have come down over the short term on a team and all of a sudden their best player is going to sit out. In games Kawhi’s missed this season, the minutes trend up some for Harrell who’s played 29 per game in those affairs. He’s averaged 21 point, eight rebounds, four assists with some blocks and steals thrown in as well. Sure, he’s coming off the bench, but the Clippers are one of the few teams we can *trust* in that kind of situation. Harrell’s DraftKings price is particularly appealing.

Rudy Gobert FD - $7800 DK - $7500
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 40.81 DK - 40.91
With back-to-back blowouts in the last two, Gobert hasn’t played a ton of minutes, but the plan is around 36 for him in closer games. He’s a double-double machine basically on lock which is great news for DraftKings and the bonus there. But the FanDuel price is sitting a little low as well when you consider the defensive stat upside he gives you over there. He’s averaging almost two blocks a game to go with the 14 points and 10 boards. The Thunder have allowed more than average points and rebounds to opposing centers this season so things are lining up nicely for Gobert.

Other Thoughts
Karl-Anthony Towns (FD 11200 DK 9300) is coming way too cheap on DraftKings. He’s almost a lock play there.

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