Utah Jazz's Donovan Mitchell (45) celebrates with Jae Crowder (99) and Rudy Gobert (27) after the first half of the team's NBA basketball game against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday, March 2, 2018, in Salt Lake City. (AP Photo/Kim Raff)
Friday night was full of wild games and we're back at it here! Unfortunately, we only have five games ahead of us and we could be looking at another night full of blowouts. In fact, we don't have a single spread within six points and we have four of the five games posting a spread at 9.5 points or higher. That means raw points will be critical and that's why we'll offer up a good mixture of studs and value plays. In addition, we'll go ahead and avoid recommending anyone from the DAL-NOP matchup, which takes place before the main slate. With that in mind, let's get into our plays!
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Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 35.26 DK - 35.5
The point guard selections on this slate are very volatile, so let's go with a consistent guy like Rubio. The Spaniard is actually in the midst of one of his best seasons ever, averaging 12.6 points, 4.8 rebounds, 8.7 assists and 1.5 steals per game. If you take out the three games where Rubio was dealing with injury, he's actually scored at least 30 DK points in all of the other 13 outings while averaging just shy of 40 fantasy points per game. That's huge against a Houston club who sits third in pace and 25th in points allowed.
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 26.58 DK - 25.9
Many people will pivot to Tyus Jones in the absence of Ja Morant because Jones will be starting but Melton is the sharper play. Memphis finally became privy to that in the last loss, starting Melton in the second half. It's really no surprise when you see his production, with Melton averaging 33 DK points per game across 26 minutes of action over his last three fixtures. That's all you can ask for from a $5,000 player and he should continue to see a big role as long as Morant remains out.
If you're playing the early slate, it's impossible to avoid Luka Doncic against a bad Pelicans defense.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 62.08 DK - 64.99
In a short slate like this, Harden is hard to fade. The reason for that is because you need raw points and there's no better bet for that than Harden. We're talking about a guy who averaged close to 70 DK points per game last season and is up to a 63-point average this year. That's simply absurd and it's hard to fade a guaranteed 50-60 fantasy points from one slot. We're certainly not worried about the matchup with Phoenix either, with the Beard averaging 38.3 points, 8.7 rebounds, 10 assists, 3.7 steals and 1.0 blocks in three games against them last season.
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 43.93 DK - 44.76
With Mike Conley likely sitting this game out because of a hammy issue, Mitchell is one of the best plays on the board. In the last game without Conley, Mitchell collected 29 points, four rebounds and five assists in what was a blowout loss. That means a line like that could be his floor, especially considering how much better of a matchup he gets. DM put up that solid line against a stout Lakers defense and gets to face a Grizzlies team here who sits sixth in pace and 27th in points allowed. Mitchell is worth using if Conley suits up but he's one of the best picks out there if he sits!
If you're looking for someone cheap, Ben McLemore has been getting up a ton of shots for the Rockets recently while playing a boatload of minutes.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 29.63 DK - 29.61
Since we got a couple of studs at shooting guard, let's ride some nice values at small forward. Warren is just that and it's hard to understand why he remains at $5,400 on both sites. We have him projected as a $6,000 player and it's really no surprise when you see that he has at least 27 DK points in 14 of his last 17 games while averaging 29 fantasy points per game in that span. We absolutely love that type of floor and production against a Knicks team who allows the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards.
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 21.97 DK - 22.9
If we like Mitchell in the absence of Conley, we absolutely adore Ingles. In the game where Conley got injured, Ingles provided 13 points, eight rebounds and eight assists. While he struggled in the last game, the fact that he played an average of 29 minutes while posting a 20 percent usage rate in those two games indicates that he's back to being a focal point of this offense. We really like that against a team like Memphis, with the Grizzlies ranked sixth in pace and 22nd in defensive efficiency.
We also love Tobias Harris' bump in usage and shots with Joel Embiid sidelined.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 37.34 DK - 36.8
The alternate in the small forward section is why we love Horford. With Joel Embiid sitting this game out, Horford should handle the bulk of the rebounding while seeing an increase in usage and shots taken. That's big news for an already talented player, with Horford averaging 33.4 DK points per game for the year. That's even more evident when you see that Horford has a 23 percent usage rate while averaging 1.32 DK points per minute with Embiid and Josh Richardson off the floor. Getting to face Cleveland is simply a bonus, with the Cavs surrendering the third-most fantasy points to opposing centers this season.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 29.64 DK - 30.89
Kaminsky has been a nice value for weeks and it's really difficult to understand why these sites keep him below $6,000. The reason he's gained so much value is because of DeAndre Ayton's suspension and Aron Baynes' injury. That's opened up a ton of minutes and usage in the frontcourt, leading to Kaminsky having a career year. Not only does he have at least 30 DK points in three-straight games, Kaminsky is also averaging 31 minutes and 13 shots a game in that span. That's awesome against a Houston club who allows the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing PFs while posting the ugly defensive numbers in the Rubio write-up.
If Kevin Love is out again, Larry Nance Jr is a good candidate to fill in most of his fantasy value.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 40.89 DK - 41.05
If you don't already know, Capela has developed into one of the best rebounders in the NBA. Over his last eight games, CC is averaging 15.8 points, 19.3 rebounds and 2.3 blocks per outing. That equates to nearly 50 fantasy points per game, making him one of the best options at center on this slate. Getting to face a shorthanded Suns front court is the icing on the cake, with Phoenix allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing centers this season when healthy, to say nothing of how they look without Baynes and Ayton. We also love that both of these clubs rank Top-10 in pace, which makes Capela a viable candidate for another 20-20 game.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 17.71 DK - 17.53
This is somewhat of a punt play but O'Quinn should see some extra minutes with Embiid and Richardson both sitting this game out. All we really need is 20 minutes from O'Quinn, as he can easily provide 6-7X value in that amount of time. In fact, the big man is averaging 10.5 DK points across 9.2 minutes a game this season which equates to 1.2 DK points per minute. That means if we get 20 minutes, we're looking at a projected 24 DK points. That would equate to 8X value at this minimum price tag, making O'Quinn one of the best value plays on the board. The blowout potential adds to his intrigue too, as that could garner him even more playing time.
With David Fizdale getting fired on Friday, it might be time to unleash Mitchell Robinson! Keep an eye on him over the next few weeks.
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