Monday gives us some injury news, blowout risk and possibly a ton of cheap value on what could be a wild slate for DraftKings and FanDuel.
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Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 27.39 DK - 28.74
Two things can be true. Dennis Smith Jr. can be not all that good at NBA basketball AND Dennis Smith Jr. can be a good DFS play. That’s the situation we have on Monday with the Knicks’ guard. Elfrid Payton is already out and Frank Ntilikina is considered doubtful after leaving Sunday’s game early. That’s going to leave a ton of minutes for Smith who is coming off playing 38 last night and finishing with a 17 point, seven assist line. In the New York “offense” he has a chance to get kind of lost for sure, especially if RJ Barrett takes a lot of the controls, but these prices are way to low to ignore and he should hit value almost regardless. He’s likely the highest owned player on the slate unless something changes.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 27.27 DK - 26.92
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 22.28 DK - 21.51
Ja Morant is considered “week-to-week” which is code for “we’re tanking” meaning Tyus and De'Anthony are going to get a ton more run in the short term. On Sunday that meant Tyus for 26 minutes and Melton for 23. Jones finished with 12 points and seven assists and Melton went for nine points and eight assists. This is all to say, both hit crazy value and there’s a strong case to stack both in cash at their current price points because you get all of the Memphis PG minutes at a huge discount. Tyus is the safer bet because he’s starting, but realize that the Grizz have no real incentives here which make the DFS situation tricky.
Other thoughts
Malcolm Brogdon (FD 8400 DK 8100) continues to be underpriced on DraftKings and has seen the minutes round back out after coming back from injury. He also gets a dream matchup against the Grizzlies. There is a ton of PG value on Monday which is the only reason he’s not a lock.
Take a listen to Doug's Brooklyn Nets Podcat below:
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 35.99 DK - 38.29
Hield has played huge minutes over the short term, running 40 (OT), 37, 42 and 36 in his last four. He popped off for 41 against the Celtics but has struggled from beyond the arc in the last two going a combined 6-25. It’s the volume shooting I’m most encouraged by and this matchup against the Bulls is a good one considering they run a top-12 pace and are middle of the pack on defense. The rough shooting has actually kept Hield’s price in check and I think on FanDuel especially he’s a cash play in one of the shooting guard slots.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 40.72 DK - 43.23
There’s a lot to like about Booker here. He plays a Hornets team ranked 28th in defensive efficiency and the Suns have one of the highest implied totals on the night at 115. He’ll run up to 38 minutes in close games and has taken 20+ shots in three of the last six games. He’s struggled a little from three, going 4-21 in his last four though has kept a moderate fantasy floor because he’s handing out assists a bit more than in the past with almost eight a game in that stretch. This is just such a good matchup and Charlotte will struggle to stick with him around the perimeter.
Other thoughts
Jeremy Lamb (FD 6700 DK 6300) played big minutes last time out and draws the best matchup of the evening against the Grizzlies.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 64.2 DK - 66.04
There is already so much cheap value on this slate that fitting Giannis’s salary isn’t going to take any real work at all. That won’t be the issue you deal with. Instead, the discussion will likely more center around whether you can trust the minutes on the superstar. The Bucks enter as -15 home favorites against the lowly Knicks and it’s hard to imagine the latter keeps this game close. Giannis is obviously about as good as it gets in the game, but in two of his last five games has failed to hit 30 minutes because Milwaukee was blowing opponents out. That could be the case again here and if he were to see something like the 20 he played last game in a rout of Charlotte then you’d be in real trouble on these salaries. But again, I think the nature of the slate dictates we take the risk on Giannis with the understanding the ownership will be high and he can pile on fantasy points in short stretches like few others in the game.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 23.96 DK - 22.34
The Grizzlies are a total mess right now. Ja Morant is out on a “week-to-week” basis, Jaren Jackson Jr. is just an utter foul box and right now Jonas Valanciunas, Kyle Anderson and Brandon Clarke are all questionable with various issues. If all three were to play then I wouldn’t be as high on Caboclo so please take that in mind. But on Sunday he came off the bench for 29 minutes and quickly put up a double-double with 12 points and 13 rebounds in the surprise win over the Timberwolves. I think we could see similar run again and he’s coming at the stone minimums on both sites. Keep an ear out for Memphis injury news here as it will determine the different value from the team.
Other thoughts
With Draymond Green sitting, I don’t mind looking at Alec Burks (FD 6200 DK 6000) as an option at small forward. He’s put up decent fantasy lines this season when given the opportunity.
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 43.87 DK - 46.26
I mentioned the issue the Grizzlies are having right now and a lot of what they are missing/ struggling with is on the interior. That means the situation is ripe for Sabonis who is basically a double-double machine. That helps on DraftKings with the bonus and he’s averaging 18 points and 13 rebounds over the last month or so. The boards have taken only a moderate hit with Myles Turner back in the mix though the one thing I’d worry a little bit with is the short term drop in usage with the Pacers getting healthier around guys like Brogdon and Lamb. That being said, the matchup is just too good to pass up at a weaker position and Sabonis isn’t totally cost-prohibitive.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 38.72 DK - 38.69
Parker lost minutes in a blowout against the Rockets and was a disaster shooting against the Pacers. But this is still a guy I think Atlanta wants to run out there for mid-30’s minutes in the right situation and the matchup against the Warriors is a great one. Golden State is a bottom-five defense and plays an above-average pace on the season. Parker should be good for double-digit shot attempts in this game and has double-double potential if the game can get up and down the court. It also helps the Warriors are without Draymond Green on Monday, limiting even more there defensive efficiency.
Other thoughts
If Jonas Valanciunas was out again then Brandon Clarke (FD 5300 DK 5000) would be interesting if off the injury report AND starting. But those are a couple of big if’s.
If you trust the recent run then PJ Washington (FD 5500 DK 5100) is an interesting upside GPP play.
Similarly, Dario Saric (FD 5400 DK 5900) draws a great matchup and didn’t see much of a dip in playing time with Aron Baynes back for the Suns.
Center is the problem position on the slate. There’s no crystal clear play or two for me as of this writing so let’s break down some of the options.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 18.97 DK - 19.25
He’s probably the closest to a “safe” play on this slate. The Bucks will be without his brother Brook again and Robin started last game, playing 24 minutes in the blowout win. He put up 13 points, six rebounds and four assists with some blocks as well. The price is probably too cheap to get away from on FanDuel where he’s for some reason still the minimum. It’s a little closer on DraftKings considering there is a lot of other value on this slate and I don’t see Ro-Lo climbing towards 30+ minutes here. But on FanDuel I suspect he’s the chalk.
Other thoughts
Caboclo and Sabonis both qualify at center on DraftKings. So I think you are going to have a bunch of options there.
Willie Cauley-Stein (FD 5200 DK 5200) is moderately interesting on FanDuel but I’d just assume take the savings on Lopez.
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