Los Angeles Clippers' Paul George (13) drives against Oklahoma City Thunder's Terrance Ferguson (23) during the second half of an NBA basketball game, Monday, Nov. 18, 2019, in Los Angeles. The Clippers won 90-88. (AP Photo/Ringo H.W. Chiu)
We have a slight deviation on format for this article, since main slate contains just 3 games, and each of those has a potentially wild game script cooking. With potential blowouts in Orlando and LA, and two brutal defenses squaring off in Toronto, this could be one of the more volatile slates in recent memory. The earlier slates honestly look better to me today. If you want access to the projections and lineups for those slates, feel free to grab a free trial by clicking the link below.
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The Magic are favored by 8.5 in a game with a 206.5 total.
Well, the 7-11 Magic are 8.5 point favorites against the best dynasty of the 2010s, or at least what is left of them. With Russell ruled out and Draymond Green averaging 21 minutes in his last two games it's hard to imagine a world where the current construction of the Warriors aren't the worst team in the league. That being said, the Magic aren't exactly a dynasty in the making in their own right, and on a three game slate we can't play around the blowout risk too much here.
The Orlando Magic
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 31.47 DK - 32.72
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 28.2 DK - 27.81
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 30.21 DK - 30.64
These are your playable Magic, as far as our system is concerned. Gordon returned and played 31 minutes against Toronto, paying value on these prices. Fournier has been great since assuming more of the offensive burden when Vuc and Gordon were sidelined, and continued that excellence against the Raptors. Fultz is a solid value on these prices on a nightly basis.
And, importantly, the Warriors are by far the worst defensive team on this slate whether Draymond plays or not. If this game stays remotely close, it will be tough for the Magic guys to not return value.
If you're in a pickle, our system thinks Terrence Ross might not kill you at a pretty low price point.
The Golden State Warriors
Ahhh, the Dubs. It's pretty much impossible to know what to do with their minutes at this point. They seem to get blown out every night, and it's very difficult to know how they view Draymond Green's "injury." We know that players like Ky Bowman, Alec Burks, and Glenn Robinson can put up huge numbers in close games without Draymond Green, but we haven't seen this whole unit play their full allotment since Green returned. I can see a world where any of these guys are good plays, but it's hard to just recommend them sight unseen. I can see one of those guys being a necessary evil in cash games, though.
The Raptors are favored by 2.5 in a game with a 210 total.
The only tight spread on the slate, and it happens to feature the two teams ranked 1st and 5th in the league in total defense.
The Toronto Raptors
In a tight game, though, our system is actually fairly high on the high floor Raptors considering that Lowry has been downgraded to doubtful for this contest.
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 26.26 DK - 27.02
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 27.41 DK - 27.18
Cheap high floor options that are favorites to play mid 30s minutes, and importantly, neither of them should be too affected by Rudy Gobert lurking beneath the rim. Powell in particular was excellent against the Magic, and it's very nice to get to roll him back on this tiny slate at a thin position.
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 44.99 DK - 46.32
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 37.59 DK - 38.34
Your high floor 40 minute guys. Both FVV and Siakam aren't going to love what they see in this match-up, but at 80 combined minutes in the only game that rates to have a reasonable game script it can't be terrible. If I had to pick one I'd say Vanvleet, since investing a lot in Siakam at these prices has been hit or miss even in better match-ups.
The Utah Jazz
Our system pretty much hates the Jazz here on a value level, outside of a couple of exceptions.
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 41.94 DK - 41.74
Gobert slid right back up to 35 minutes against Memphis, and we saw what he was capable of on those kind of minutes before his brief hiatus. While most of his big performances this season were against inferior competition, and Gasol and the Raptors are most certainly not that, finding security at center is awfully tough here.
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 19.81 DK - 20.12
O'Neale is obviously pretty hit or miss, but on a short slate you're going to be hungry for cheap ways to pay up for the good players. The reality is that he's in line for 31-33 minute rotations, and while sometimes that nets you 4.2 FanDuel points the way it did against Indiana he's a favorite to hit 5x points per dollar here. I'm pretty happy to hold my nose and hope for the best here unless some other truly good punts reveal themselves.
The Clippers are favored by 12.5 in a game with a 237 total.
This game pretty much all comes down to your appetite to grab guys in a game that is a huge favorite to be a blowout. After a tough loss against the Spurs, my guess is that the Clippers are out for blood here, and I'm fairly terrified of getting myself too involved here.
So how do we navigate this game responsibly? I don't think you want to run very many Washington Wizards outside of big tournaments. But if you do want to run some Wiz in a big tournament, Bradley Beal and Thomas Bryant appear to be by far the best options as far as our system is concerned.
The Los Angeles Clippers
This just 100% comes down to whether or not you think the game stays close, of course. Our projection system doesn't see it going that way, unfortunately. On a basic level our system likes Paul George and Patrick Beverley best, primarily because Kawhi seems to be on a minutes restriction and Lou-Will and Harrell stand to lose minutes even worse than the starters since they close games with the starters but don't start the game. All in all, this is a pretty brutal situation for the game with by far the best total.
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