Los Angeles Clippers' Paul George (13) drives against Oklahoma City Thunder's Terrance Ferguson (23) during the second half of an NBA basketball game, Monday, Nov. 18, 2019, in Los Angeles. The Clippers won 90-88. (AP Photo/Ringo H.W. Chiu)
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Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 35.99 DK - 36.8
It's hard to imagine Murray not hitting some pretty huge ownership today. Phoenix isn't as bad on defense as they've been in the past, but they are playing a top 10 pace, and on a four game slate that means they are one of the best match-ups going. For his part, Murray is just underpriced relative to his current opportunity. As we saw in the Boston game, Murray has 38 minute upside, and that's a fantastic deal for a guy who will average a little bit more than a fantasy point per minute. Everything is trending up for Murray at the moment. He's got 11 steals in his past three game. He's actually exceeded his season averages in every stat except rebounds in that stretch. Grabbing him on a small slate as a high floor play seems pretty easy to me.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 20.79 DK - 21.17
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 23.34 DK - 22.44
With the two best point guard plays of the day going in the 3:30 game, we are left with precious little to choose from at PG today. I can see a strong case for running either of these cheapies, though. Ntilikina's production hasn't always been there, but since returning to the team he's clearly been in line for 32-37 minute rotations in close games, and Vegas only sees the Knicks as two point dogs to the Kyrie-less Nets. Johnson is another guy whose price should be on the rise, as the 30 minute rotations he's playing right now are not accounted for in his price. He becomes unplayable if Rubio plays, but that looks unlikely at this point.
All in all both of these represent a way to get away from a tough position cheaply.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 42.01 DK - 43.42
Dinwiddie has been flat out awesome since Kyrie went down, averaging 1.29 fantasy points per minute in his last four games. He lost some minutes against the Kings, but that was only because he was largely responsible for dispatching them early. Ntilikina can officially be called a feisty defender, but with the Knicks still playing a bottom 10 defense on the year I think Dinwiddie is still a terrific cash game inclusion.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 39.94 DK - 42.19
Booker is in an interesting spot right now. He's dramatically under-priced if Rubio is out, and probably slightly expensive if Rubio is at full strength. With Rubio currently questionable, I think it's safe to say that he won't be in full fighting shape regardless. Booker's time of possession with Rubio off the floor skyrockets. He's averaged 8 assists in his last three games, and his ability to score the ball has never been in doubt. Denver has been a terrible match-up this year, so this is just one of those plays that you wind up making on a small slate due to a lack of other great options.
Also considered: Buddy Hield in a great spot with the Wizards.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 47.44 DK - 50.55
George's price is on the rise, and for good reason. He's been a man possessed since joining his new team on the floor, averaging 1.45 fantasy points a minute since returning. He's still relatively cheap because he hasn't flexed into his full rotation of minutes just yet, but the overtime game against Boston demonstrates that the team is willing to leave him out there for 35+ minutes in the right situation. This likely blowout of the Pelicans might not be that situation, but seeing as they have very few tools to address his offensive game he still seems like a great play.
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 24.64 DK - 23.88
The good plays at small forward fall apart pretty quickly, with leaves us with low ceiling options like Williams. Here's an important strategic note for slates like these. With actual good payoffs at other positions, you probably don't want to invest extra salary at this position for what looks like safety, but is actually just a safer way to get a low value multiplier at a higher price. With Josh Hart already ruled out, Williams should continue to play 30-35 minutes. You hate to see the 12 point spread here, but on a small slate running away from blowout risk in order to secure sort of bad plays elsewhere is usually not a winning formula.
Also considered: Marcus Morris.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 34.82 DK - 33.43
Holmes has had some erratic minutes recently thanks to some wacky game scripts, but in relatively sane match-up with this lousy Wizards team the Kings should be less likely to get blown out than usual. Bad game scripts aren't the only way Holmes can lose minutes, of course, since he finds himself in foul trouble more often than not. Still, against a Wizards team that's going to rely almost exclusively on Bradley Beal and accompanying shooters to score, Holmes should be less likely to get into foul trouble. If we agree that we're mitigating both of Holmes' likely ways to lose minutes, he's probably a risk worth taking today.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 25.95 DK - 27.13
Power forward is just a beating today, but I really don't mind Kaminsky assuming Baynes sits. We saw in the Minnesota game that Kaminsky true rotation is around 29 minutes, and if that's the case we should see him hit 6x points per dollar on this FanDuel price. He would be in consideration at 24 minutes a game, since he averaged 20 fantasy points a game in the New Orleans and Sacramento games in spite of not cresting over 24 minutes. If we're looking at a 24 minute floor with 30 minute upside, he's simply too cheap regardless of this tough match-up.
Also considered: Nemanja Bjelica.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 37.15 DK - 36.18
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 34.67 DK - 34.45
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 48.71 DK - 51.07
Center is in a curious position today, since most of the playable options carry some sort of significant risk. Jokic has been flat out bad on these prices this season, but things are looking up recently, and going up against a Phoenix team missing both Baynes and Ayton is a welcoming prospect.
Harrell has been great on his minutes, but the potential blowout risk is ironically worse for him, even though he comes off the bench. If this game gets out of hand, he'll lose even more minutes than the starters on account of not being out there to start the game or end it. Still, he's got a terrific match-up with New Orleans' total lack of front court depth.
Bryant is ultimately likely a big tournament play, as staying on the court has been very difficult for him. his minutes range from 22-35, which means he's all at once under-priced for his full rotation and pretty unlikely to actually play his full rotation as far as starting players go.
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