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FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Friday, 11/22/19
After a two game slate on Thursday we're back with the full Monte on Friday, and there are no shortage of interesting situations to break down. Let's get to it.
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Point Guard
Luka Doncic FD - $12100 DK - $11400
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 59.14 DK - 62.87
Luka's crusade for the best 20 year old season ever continued against the Warriors, where we were blessed to own him as he put up 70.1 FanDuel points in 25 minutes of play. He had 25/5/5 after the first quarter, and he finally answered how he would perform against NCAA level talent. It'll be a stiffer challenge against Cleveland tonight, but sort of not really. The Mavs are 10 point favorites here, but as Luka taught us last night, if the Mavs are on the good end of blowouts it's because he's doing the, er, blowing.
Shaquille Harrison FD - $4400 DK - $5000
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 25.65 DK - 25.21
So I went from calling Harrison a classic trap play on Thursday to cursing his name, since he and Daniel Theis were all that stood in the way of our optimal lineup on FanDuel winning the big tournaments. Harrison put up an incredible 15/11/5/1/3 in a complete tour de force, and after he crushed his opportunity so thoroughly it stands to reason that he could see even more than 26 minutes in this one. With the Bulls thirsty for moral victories, I wouldn't be surprised if we were still buying low on Harrison here.
Also considered: Lots of guys! There are just a lot of plays tonight, and this will be a theme at most positions. Some other guys in different price tiers you can look at are Kemba Walker, Trae Young, and Cory Joseph if he's starting again.
Shooting Guard
Spencer Dinwiddie FD - $7500 DK - $7600
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 40.64 DK - 41.9
Dinwiddie filled in for Kyrie on Wednesday, and was a chalk option, popping off for 20/4/8 and his second straight 8 assist game. Sacramento has played slow this season, but they have still been a bottom 8 defense, and their back court in particular shouldn't scare you off Dinwiddie here. Brooklyn is a 3.5 point favorite here, so in a close game Dinwiddie is just a classic price and opportunity mismatch guy.
Langston Galloway FD - $4000 DK - $4500
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 26.27 DK - 26.97
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope FD - $3800 DK - $3900
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 21.87 DK - 22.18
Your cheap value answers at shooting guard tonight. Galloway has averaged 38 minutes in his last two games, and while he can disappear in a heartbeat it's a tough amount of playing time to pass up. KCP is the originator of the KCP All-Stars, of course - those guys that can play 30+ minutes and score 13 fantasy points - but he filled in admirably for Bradley in his last game, supplying better than 5x points per dollar on 33 minutes. Neither of these guys is without risk, but I think both are fine cash game options if they net you one of the exciting big money plays.
Also considered: James Harden as a great pay-off option. He played 39 minutes in regulation in the Rockets' last game against the Clippers, but with the Clippers finally running their full defensive unit, he might not soul-crush them again.
Small Forward
Paul George FD - $8600 DK - $8100
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 61.46 DK - 64.24
George has been absolutely bananas on a per-minute basis since joining his new team, and then he jumped out with 37 minutes against the Celtics. Our system is having a hard time dealing with the incredible production on a small sample size, but there's a very real chance that playing with people besides Westbrook is going to turn him back into a mid-$9,000s player in short order. With Houston playing the league's 2nd fastest pace and league average defense, George looks like an automatic cash game inclusion.
The rest:
There are honestly a ton of similar small forward options today, so I don't want to sell them short by listing just one. Both Glenn Robinson and Alec Burks from Golden State, Joe Harris and Taurean Prince with Kyrie out, Davis Bertans is seeing big minutes right now, and the list goes on. I don't think any of them gives you a huge edge over the other, so just figure out what you need salary wise and plug and play.
Power Forward
Anthony Davis FD - $11300 DK - $10100
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 58.92 DK - 57.71
Kawhi Leonard FD - $9800 DK - $9500
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 52.48 DK - 52.31
Even power forward is rich with playable options today! Let's break them down by price tier. Davis is up to his old ones this season, vacillating between playing 37 minutes a game and sitting with ticky-tack injuries. Still, that's kept him on the cheaper side and it's a great match-up with an OKC team that has literally no one to match his inside-outside game. Kawhi has been steady on this price this season, and while the Clips have definitely exercised some load management (TM) they are also totally willing to run him out there for 40 minutes in "important" match-ups. Given that he played 40 against the Rockets the last time around, I wouldn't be surprised by a repeat performance of that game.
Jabari Parker FD - $6900 DK - $6100
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 35.95 DK - 36.26
Whether it's fouling out against Milwaukee or losing by 70 combined points against the LA teams, saying that things haven't exactly gone Parker's way recently would be an understatement. As a result, we're getting a true talent $7,500 player at sub $7,000 prices right now. Obviously there are some inherent risks in playing a guy whose minutes have been so volatile, but I think that volatility was the outlier, and that steadier minutes are on the near-term horizon. Vegas sees this as a 6.5 point game, so I'm looking for Parker to hop back in the saddle of being a reasonable DFS play once again.
Honorable mention: Daniel Theis. He won some people big money in the Celtics' overtime game with the Clippers, and if he's going to stick with 26-27 minutes a game he is a fine value option.
Center
Jakob Poeltl FD - $5400 DK - $4900
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 26.71 DK - 25.64
Poeltl got the call in place of Lyles on Wednesday, and ran up 31 fantasy points in 26 minutes against the Wizards. With the Spurs trailing in that one it felt like there might even be more upside when it comes to minutes in games where the Spurs weren't trailing, though that could certainly be the case again in this one. Still, I think Poeltl is enough of a value here that you have some insulation for the game-script going against him.
Andre Drummond FD - $9600 DK - $8500
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 52.3 DK - 52.26
Like Parker above, Drummond has been a victim of some awful game scripts recently. With 25 fouls in his last 5 games and some blowouts sprinkled in, getting a handle on Drummond's true minutes has been very difficult. Well, with a sea of 35-38 minute games when he wasn't busy getting 5+ fouls, I'd have to guess that's Drummond's real opportunity when things aren't falling apart for him. That being said, things have been falling apart with such regularity that it's hard to call him a super safe play. Atlanta comes close, though. Aside from Parker they shouldn't have a lot of ways to get him into foul trouble, and he put up an easy 21 and 12 with 4 blocks in their meeting earlier this season.
Also considered: Lots of guys once again! With Joel Embiid being the headliner.
