Edmonton Oilers' Connor McDavid works for the puck against the Columbus Blue Jackets during an NHL hockey game in Columbus, Ohio, Friday, March 4, 2016. The Blue Jackets won 6-3. (AP Photo/Paul Vernon)
Welcome back hockey fans. Thursday brings us another monster slate with 13 games on the schedule with none of the 26 teams playing on a back to back or third game in four nights. Let's jump in and take a look at some of my core, GPP, and value plays at each position.
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Opponent - BUF
Proj Pts FD - 20.63 DK - 14.95
We get a monster 13-game slate on Thursday with a ton of goalie options and I will be starting at the top with Tuukka Rask who is already confirmed and the biggest favorite(-220) on the slate. He has gone 6-2-2 with .920 save % over his last 10 games and has been money at home having yet to lose in regulation time(5-0-2) and has tallied an elite .940 save % with two shutouts. What stands out the most is the matchup against the Sabres who have lost two straight and eight of their last nine games while scoring just two goals per game. All things considered, Rask is my top goalie in all formats.
Opponent - VAN
Proj Pts FD - 17.16 DK - 12.11
Opponent - VAN
Proj Pts FD - 17.46 DK - 12.37
It is a very similar situation for the Preds tonight who are at home as big favorites(-185) against a struggling team in the Canucks who have dropped three straight and seven of their last eight and sit with the 24th-ranked road offense overall. Rinne is currently projected to start after being pulled in his last game and comes in with terrible form having given up four or more goals in four of his last five after a red-hot start to the season. I am not buying the regression narrative around the 37-year-old former Vezina winner(2017-18 season) and will take advantage of a price drop for a goalie in a plus matchup. Saros isn't really making any case to take over starter duties but if he were to get the nod tonight, I would definitely consider him in GPP formats at his price in this matchup.
Also Consider: Jordan Binnington(STL) who is 7-2-1 with a .926 save % in his last 10 starts and faces a Flames team that has dropped five straight while scoring just five total goals
Opponent - LA
Proj Pts FD - 25.07 DK - 20.31
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 25.15 DK - 20.24
On large slates like tonight, there is an abundance of value which makes it much easier to build around one or even both of these superstar centers. Let's start with Connor McDavid who is one of just two players with 40 or more points and the other is his linemate Leon Draisaitl. They have combined for 31 goals(41% of Oilers total of 75) and 87 points and while they are on the road tonight they face a Kings team that ranks 29th in defense allowing 3.6 goals per game and the powerplay gets the biggest boost as the Oilers lead the league in that category while the Kings rank 30th on the penalty kill. To top it off, McDavid has also provided a high floor lately with 36 shots in his last 10 games.
While MacKinnon isn't putting up the points at the astronomical rate McDavid is he is still in elite territory with 31 points(6th in the league) through 21 games. The upside is only part of the equation with MacKinnon who has an insane 62 shots in his last 10 games, is averaging five shots per game on the season, and that is backed up by an elite 23.6 iCorsi/60(shot attempts). Like McDavid, MacKinnon is also on the road tonight in a plus matchup against the Wild who have been better at home but still rank 23rd on defense for the season while giving up over shots per game.
It's dealer choice here as both are elite plays in all formats.
Stack McDavid with: Leon Draistail, Zack Kassian
Stack MacKinnon with: Joonas Donskoi, Andre Burakovsky
Opponent - SJ
Proj Pts FD - 9.2 DK - 7.19
From a PTS/$ perspective, Cody Eakin is on my radar tonight in the mid $3K range on both sites. He has received a bump in usage lately centering a new-look second-line between Jonathan Marchessault and Mark Stone and has produced with points in three straight and has added 10 shots over his last two. The Golden Knights are another team in a good spot tonight at home as -175 favorites against the Sharks who rank 28th defensively on the road. Eakin is one of my top overall value plays on this slate and in play in all formats.
Stack with: Jonathan Marchessault, Mark Stone
Also Consider: Tyler Seguin(DAL) on FanDuel(Winger on DK) who has 30 shots on goal and eight points over his last six games
Opponent - VAN
Proj Pts FD - 17.64 DK - 14.23
I mentioned the Preds goalies being in a good matchup against a struggling Canucks team but the offense is not the only thing lacking at the moment. They have allowed 15 goals over their last three and an average of 3.9 goals against per game during a stretch where they have lost seven of their last eight. Forsberg's salary falls into the second tier on both sites and makes for an excellent start to a balanced lineup in cash as he provides elite shot volume(4 shots per game, 24.0 iCoris/60). He missed six games in mid-October with injury but since his return has tallied seven points in eight games while averaging 3.6 shots per game. Fire up Forsberg in all formats tonight.
Stack with: Ryan Johansen, Viktor Arvidsson
Opponent - WPG
Proj Pts FD - 8.43 DK - 6.25
Opponent - WPG
Proj Pts FD - 9.66 DK - 8.24
If you are looking for a path to get multiple elite players in your lineup(aka McDavid & MacKinnon) definitely consider these two Stars wingers. Neither of them have consistent floors averaging 10-14 minutes ice-time on the season but both are getting an opportunity to contribute in Top 6 roles for the team. Dowling is currently centering the top line with Tyler Seguin and has goals in three of his last four games. Gurianov has been held off the scoresheet in three straight and has just eight points on the season but the advanced stats(19.0 shot attempts per 60, 12.3 scoring chances per 60)suggest more offense is on the way with the young winger. Combine their price, opportunity, and matchup and I will have exposure to one or both of these players in all formats and love pairing Dowling with Seguin in cash.
Stack with: Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn
Also Consider: Ondrej Kase(ANH), Andrei Svechnikov(CAR)
Opponent - SJ
Proj Pts FD - 16.13 DK - 12.77
Opponent - WPG
Proj Pts FD - 16.99 DK - 13.48
We are likely spending up for one or both of McDavid or MacKinnon so I will start defense in the mid-range with two players who are in nearly every lineup on the optimizer at the moment with their elite PTS/$ value. Let's start with Schmidt who was injured on opening night and missed a month but returned as a monster on the blue line. Over the 10 games since his return, he has tallied eight points but the it's the floor that stands out as he has also tallied a combined 46 shots/blocks in those games. If this keeps up, he will see his price jump into the Edler, Hamilton, Hedman range before we know it. Buy low now.
As for Heiskanen, I mentioned him on Tuesday in my article and he didn't let us down with a goal and an assist and now has 10 points in his last 10 games with a combined 50 shots/blocks in that time. Like Schmidt, his price is on the rise and we should take advantage of the PTS/$ value in this matchup on home ice.
Also Consider: Dougie Hamilton(CAR)/Victor Hedman(TB) as elite pay ups or Colton Parayko(STL) as another high floor PTS/$ value
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