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Kamara was back to his old ones last week, hauling in 10 catches for 47 yards while providing 75 yards on the ground as well. Murray is still lurking around, but if Kamara is going to get 10 targets a game the way he has in the last two contests he should be a totally serviceable DFS option. Kamara had a touchdown taken last week, which leaves him with only two on the season. While sometimes it's reasonable to be concerned about whether a player is just not involved in the down and close plays, that isn't Kamara's issue. You're talking about a guy who had 18 touchdowns just last year. I'd argue that Kamara is just under-priced if you think the touchdowns will regress to the mean, and if so, grabbing him in a week where his team has the second highest implied total can't be too bad.
Opponent MIA
Proj Points FD - 18.48 DK - 18.66
Chubb is an interesting play here. On one hand, he is the most straightforward play out there. He's a top tier talent, and the Browns are 11 point home favorites against a truly awful Dolphins team. On the other hand, Kareem Hunt's return has seriously dug into his role in the passing game, and Hunt had 14 touches overall in the week 11 victory over the Steelers. Still, in spite of those 14 touches, Chubb still had 28 plays drawn up for him overall. I think you can still trust Chubb to get the job done in a game where the Browns should be leaning heavily on the running game.
Opponent PHI
Proj Points FD - 16.93 DK - 18.32
Running back is a lot less clear than it has been in previous weeks, but I think Carson is a great value, especially on DraftKings. He's coming off a week where he had 29 plays drawn up for him and paid value in what amounts to the toughest match-up in the league with San Francisco. While Philly's run defense is good in its own right, it's not in the same league as San Francisco's, and at this point we know that Seattle hopes to feed Carson in any time where it's realistic to do so. If there's a fly in the ointment here it is that Philly is weaker against the pass, and since Carroll will know that, he could pivot into a more pass heavy approach. But running back is thin enough this week that we might have to take that risk.
Opponent TEN
Proj Points FD - 15.91 DK - 17.73
It's easy to be off of Fournette after his terrible week against the Colts, but I'm not so easily dissuaded. We're on back to back weeks with awful game scripts for Fournette, and we know that in close games, Fournette will be involved in every phase of the game. The fact that he got 15 touches in a week where his team lost by 20 is a testament to how high the floor should generally be. Tennessee has been pretty tough against the run this year, but Vegas sees this as a three point game, and we should see Fournette involved throughout.
Also considered: Josh Jacobs, and Christian McCaffrey if you think you can afford it.
We may have a winner emerging in this year's tight end poo-poo platter. In tough match-ups with New England and Chicago in that last two weeks, Ertz has averaged 9 catches for 98.5 yards on 11 targets. He'll have his best match-up in three weeks as well, with Seattle ranking 22nd in overall defensive DVOA this year. Passes to Ertz were basically the only thing working for the Eagles' offense last week as well, with Ertz going 9-11 in passes to Ertz but 11-29 in his other attempts. I'm close to all in on Ertz this week.
Opponent NO
Proj Points FD - 9.47 DK - 11.39
I'm just not convinced that Olsen is fundamentally different than any of the non-Ertz more expensive tight ends. All of these guys can come and go on a week to week basis. Kyle Allen had a pretty tough week, but he completed all five of his targets to Olsen, and it looks like the Panthers' elderly tight end has found himself a niche in this offense. If Marshon Lattimore returns for New Orleans, Olsen's stock could rise even higher.
Also considered: Darren Waller.
If you can scrape together the dollars, it can't usually be too bad to grab a reasonable defense against one of the league's true bottom feeders in Miami. Losing Myles Garrett certainly won't help, but the Browns have only allowed 21 points in the last two weeks, and it can't all be thanks to Garrett. With 4 sacks and 4 interceptions last week this defense showed some big play making ability as well, so I'd be happy to be able to afford them against the destitute Dolphins.
Opponent SEA
Proj Points FD - 6.73 DK - 6.73
We ran the Eagles at these prices against the Pats last week, so you can bet that we're willing to run them out there against the Seahawks this week. On a week to week basis we're going to constantly need to ask ourselves if it is a week where we can afford to pay up at defense (and get a good defense in a good match-up) or a week where we need to take the savings to pay up at higher floor positions elsewhere. You almost never get cheap defenses in perfect spots, and getting a legit top 10 defense in Philly in less than an awful match-up seems fine.
Opponent CIN
Proj Points FD - 9.13 DK - 9.13
I think I'd ultimately just prefer the Browns here, but you can't just turn your nose up at the Steelers' upside here. In the last five weeks, the Steelers have put together 15 sacks, 14 turnovers, and 3 defensive touchdowns. Ryan Finley has been an abomination in his two starts, going 29-61 for 282 yards, 1 TD, and 2 picks. Hmm, I may have talked myself into wanting to prioritize the Steelers after all.
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