Daily Fantasy Football Cash Game Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 12 - 11/24/19

Welcome to Week 12! With a bunch of great plays on byes or off the main slate this week, things get right at positions where we're used to having terrific depth. Fear not, however - our experts are ready to find you those diamonds in the rough. Join James and Doug as they break it all down.

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Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson FD 8200 DK 6800
Opponent PHI
Proj Points FD - 23.21 DK - 24.08

Only one of the top five DraftKings per game scoring quarterbacks is playing on the main slate. Want to guess who it is or did his picture and name already give things away? Wilson is coming off the bye week following an OT win over the 49ers and is now set to put in work against the Eagles. Entering Week 11 the Eagles were a middle of the pack team against the pass, ranking 15th in DVOA. They were generally good against Tom Brady in the loss, but this still represents a plus matchup for Wilson. He’s damn efficient, completing 69% of his passes and throwing for 23 touchdowns with only two interceptions on the season. That’s easily the best TD:INT rate among quarterbacks and a big reason he’s among the league-leaders in scoring despite coming in with fewer passing attempts than the rest of the top tier except Lamar Jackson. Going on the road, across the country isn’t the best situation, but the bye week helps alleviate some of those concerns.

Jameis Winston FD 7600 DK 6200
Opponent ATL
Proj Points FD - 21.14 DK - 22.31

If you decide to roster him in cash, and believe me there’s a strong case to do it, I’d suggest not tuning into this game or even following along with it. Instead just check the box score when it’s all over. Jameis can be that frustrating. He has errant passes, throws picks, makes the wrong decisions and just does about everything to make you go crazy. But, when it’s all said and done, the dude has thrown for over 300 yards in seven of his last eight games with 20+ yards rushing in three of the last four. The 13 picks in the last five games is the kind of stuff that makes you go bald early, but it also means the Bucs are often losing and he thereby makes up for it in passing volume to catch up. The Falcons have looked every bit a confident and competent defense over the last two weeks after stinking most of the season. But there’s a case to take some the savings on Winston here in what should still be a good matchup with ideal conditions in the dome.

Baker Mayfield FD 7500 DK 5900
Opponent MIA
Proj Points FD - 20.07 DK - 20.65

Baker’s taken a beating this season no doubt about it. The Browns have performed well under expectation for sure and he’s had tons of issues. But there is at least some context. in terms of defensive DVOA, he’s faced the 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 11, 13, 14, 16 and 22 defenses. That’s exactly one defense that’s in the second tier. This is a completely brutal stretch and for sure has had a ton to do with his performance this season. Week 12? He gets the Miami Dolphins who rank 31st, easily the best matchup Baker’s had all season. Because of his performance, the price is down some and I think he’ll see ownership on DraftKings especially.

Running Backs

Alvin Kamara FD 8300 DK 8200
Opponent CAR
Proj Points FD - 19.54 DK - 22.76

Kamara was back to his old ones last week, hauling in 10 catches for 47 yards while providing 75 yards on the ground as well. Murray is still lurking around, but if Kamara is going to get 10 targets a game the way he has in the last two contests he should be a totally serviceable DFS option. Kamara had a touchdown taken last week, which leaves him with only two on the season. While sometimes it's reasonable to be concerned about whether a player is just not involved in the down and close plays, that isn't Kamara's issue. You're talking about a guy who had 18 touchdowns just last year. I'd argue that Kamara is just under-priced if you think the touchdowns will regress to the mean, and if so, grabbing him in a week where his team has the second highest implied total can't be too bad.

Nick Chubb FD 8200 DK 8100
Opponent MIA
Proj Points FD - 18.48 DK - 18.66

Chubb is an interesting play here. On one hand, he is the most straightforward play out there. He's a top tier talent, and the Browns are 11 point home favorites against a truly awful Dolphins team. On the other hand, Kareem Hunt's return has seriously dug into his role in the passing game, and Hunt had 14 touches overall in the week 11 victory over the Steelers. Still, in spite of those 14 touches, Chubb still had 28 plays drawn up for him overall. I think you can still trust Chubb to get the job done in a game where the Browns should be leaning heavily on the running game.

Chris Carson FD 7700 DK 6700
Opponent PHI
Proj Points FD - 16.93 DK - 18.32

Running back is a lot less clear than it has been in previous weeks, but I think Carson is a great value, especially on DraftKings. He's coming off a week where he had 29 plays drawn up for him and paid value in what amounts to the toughest match-up in the league with San Francisco. While Philly's run defense is good in its own right, it's not in the same league as San Francisco's, and at this point we know that Seattle hopes to feed Carson in any time where it's realistic to do so. If there's a fly in the ointment here it is that Philly is weaker against the pass, and since Carroll will know that, he could pivot into a more pass heavy approach. But running back is thin enough this week that we might have to take that risk.

Leonard Fournette FD 7000 DK 7300
Opponent TEN
Proj Points FD - 15.91 DK - 17.73

It's easy to be off of Fournette after his terrible week against the Colts, but I'm not so easily dissuaded. We're on back to back weeks with awful game scripts for Fournette, and we know that in close games, Fournette will be involved in every phase of the game. The fact that he got 15 touches in a week where his team lost by 20 is a testament to how high the floor should generally be. Tennessee has been pretty tough against the run this year, but Vegas sees this as a three point game, and we should see Fournette involved throughout.

Also considered: Josh Jacobs, and Christian McCaffrey if you think you can afford it.

 

Wide Receivers

Odell Beckham Jr FD 7000 DK 7000
Opponent MIA
Proj Points FD - 14.3 DK - 16.73

Last week I wrote about how Michael Thomas was on pace to break the single-season receptions record set by Marvin Harrison. Well Week 10 kept him right there and he’s on pace for 150 receptions, seven more than the record. For Thomas, Week 11 was like, inefficient converting *only* 8 of 11 targets into 114 yards and a touchdown. That’s slightly below his 83% conversion rate on the season. Dude is just ridiculous and the the Saints getting healthy didn’t do much to cut into the production. His touchdowns still trail the rest of the top receivers on the season even though he did catch one last week. He was targeted plenty in the red zone and is second in the league with 15 RZ targets on the season. In fact that’s the one place where his production drops off some relative to the rest of the field. It’s almost for sure just noise and like I said last week, the price is a little low only because his TDs aren’t totally there.

D.J. Moore FD 6400 DK 6400
Opponent NO
Proj Points FD - 15.71 DK - 18.8

How many consecutive weeks we going to have to throw this guy out there? Well, until the price reflects the opportunity, both sites are basically making it plain as day that Moore is a cash game play. He was 80+% owned in double ups last week and that’s fixing to be around the same number (or higher) again this time around. That’s because, again the price is a total joke. Since Week 5 there are only three receivers with more targets than Moore: Michael Thomas, Julian Edelman and DeAndre Hopkins. That’s the whole list. He has the seventh-most receiving yards in that stretch as well. What he doesn’t have are the touchdowns (zero on the season) which I suppose is partly the reason for the price inefficiency. But whatever, it’s a joke at this point. He’ll again be the highest-owned WR and it’s correct.

Odell Beckham Jr FD 7000 DK 7000
Opponent MIA
Proj Points FD - 14.3 DK - 16.73
Cash game Odell Beckham time? It might be with the price finally down low enough to truly consider and a matchup that you read about. Like we said with Mayfield, the Browns have had such a brutal stretch against opposing defenses that it’s effected every part of their game. Beckham’s seen double digit targets in each of the last two games and three of the last six. He’s only topped 100 yards receiving twice this season, but if he’s going to do it again, this is the week. I think the price is finally low enough to truly consider and we might be looking at a full Browns’ stack in cash games in some spots.

Other thoughts

We recommended Calvin Ridley as a cash game option last week and he went off in Week 11. I like going back to that well again.

Even though DJ Chark saw the lionshare of the targets in Week 11 from Nick Foles, I still don’t mind the prices on Dede Westbrook

 

Tight Ends

Zach Ertz FD 6100 DK 6000
Opponent SEA
Proj Points FD - 12.4 DK - 15.32

We may have a winner emerging in this year's tight end poo-poo platter. In tough match-ups with New England and Chicago in that last two weeks, Ertz has averaged 9 catches for 98.5 yards on 11 targets. He'll have his best match-up in three weeks as well, with Seattle ranking 22nd in overall defensive DVOA this year. Passes to Ertz were basically the only thing working for the Eagles' offense last week as well, with Ertz going 9-11 in passes to Ertz but 11-29 in his other attempts. I'm close to all in on Ertz this week.

Greg Olsen FD 5100 DK 4100
Opponent NO
Proj Points FD - 9.47 DK - 11.39

I'm just not convinced that Olsen is fundamentally different than any of the non-Ertz more expensive tight ends. All of these guys can come and go on a week to week basis. Kyle Allen had a pretty tough week, but he completed all five of his targets to Olsen, and it looks like the Panthers' elderly tight end has found himself a niche in this offense. If Marshon Lattimore returns for New Orleans, Olsen's stock could rise even higher.

Also considered: Darren Waller.

 

Defense / Special Teams

Browns FD 4500 DK 3800
Opponent MIA
Proj Points FD - 8.82 DK - 8.82

If you can scrape together the dollars, it can't usually be too bad to grab a reasonable defense against one of the league's true bottom feeders in Miami. Losing Myles Garrett certainly won't help, but the Browns have only allowed 21 points in the last two weeks, and it can't all be thanks to Garrett. With 4 sacks and 4 interceptions last week this defense showed some big play making ability as well, so I'd be happy to be able to afford them against the destitute Dolphins.

Eagles FD 3200 DK 2500
Opponent SEA
Proj Points FD - 6.73 DK - 6.73

We ran the Eagles at these prices against the Pats last week, so you can bet that we're willing to run them out there against the Seahawks this week. On a week to week basis we're going to constantly need to ask ourselves if it is a week where we can afford to pay up at defense (and get a good defense in a good match-up) or a week where we need to take the savings to pay up at higher floor positions elsewhere. You almost never get cheap defenses in perfect spots, and getting a legit top 10 defense in Philly in less than an awful match-up seems fine.

Steelers FD 5000 DK 4000
Opponent CIN
Proj Points FD - 9.13 DK - 9.13

I think I'd ultimately just prefer the Browns here, but you can't just turn your nose up at the Steelers' upside here. In the last five weeks, the Steelers have put together 15 sacks, 14 turnovers, and 3 defensive touchdowns. Ryan Finley has been an abomination in his two starts, going 29-61 for 282 yards, 1 TD, and 2 picks. Hmm, I may have talked myself into wanting to prioritize the Steelers after all.

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