Jacksonville Jaguars running back Leonard Fournette (27) plays in an NFL football game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday, Jan. 14, 2018, in Pittsburgh. (AP Photo/Don Wright)
Want access to the projections that power these picks? For a limited time we're offering a free one week trial to all the sports that we cover - that's optimal lineups for NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB - for the same low price. Get started now!
Opponent BAL
Proj Points FD - 23.55 DK - 24.43
I suspect this is the debate many have in their lineup creation over the course of the week. It’s a tough one for sure with these two facing off for real on Sunday. The quarterback position, like others, is top-heavy with Jackson and Watson occupying the 1st and 2nd slots in DraftKings points per game this season. Lamar is coming off another masterful Sunday needing really only three quarters to pass for three touchdowns and run for another against the hapless Bengals. As we’ve been preaching all season since Week 1, Jackson’s overall safety comes with his efficiency on the ground where he has 700 rushing yards, twice as many as the next closest quarterback. The 2,000+ passing yards and 66% completion percentage is almost just bonus at this point.
Meanwhile, Watson hasn’t been any slouch and is coming off the bye week with some extra time to prepare for the Ravens. Houston comes in as 4.5 road underdogs to the Ravens and the line suggests Houston will need to keep their foot on the gas to keep up with Baltimore. Watson is third in those aforementioned QB rushing yards and has six touchdowns on the ground this season. But he’s also throwing for around 270 yards per game and ranks third in passing touchdowns on the season. The Ravens are 21st in defensive DVOA this year and it stands to reason Houston can put up points here. The other key consideration is price. Watson is $600 less on FanDuel and $900 less on DraftKings. This is significant on a week where we’ll almost for sure want to spend up on at least two stud running backs.
In the end, I think price wins out. Though Jackson has a higher floor, I think every penny counts and we end up rostering Watson, but it’s a close decision that could define the week.
Opponent ATL
Proj Points FD - 16.79 DK - 17.11
I’m not strongly advocating this move though I do think some will make it on DraftKings specifically. Despite looking adequate (or better) against the Saints in Week 10, the Falcons still own one of the worst passing defenses in the league this season. They rank 30th in defensive DVOA against the pass and have allowed some monster games to opposing quarterbacks. Allen is coming off a 300 yard passing game against the Packers and looked generally efficient. This is as much about opponent and price as anything and think there’s a high floor in rostering Allen and McCaffrey together in cash. That being said, Allen is well, well, well behind both Jackson and Watson in terms of cash game safety even when factoring in salary.
McCaffrey wasn't as highly owned as I thought he'd be in week 10, and while he was below average (for him), he still put up 23 fantasy points on 26 touches against the Packers. This week he'll draw a phenomenal match-up with a Falcons team that has the third lowest defensive DVOA in the NFL, and the Panthers are tied for having the highest implied total on the slate. I think you can find enough savings at wide receiver to get him into your cash game lineups this week.
Opponent DEN
Proj Points FD - 23.9 DK - 25.88
Cook has somewhat quietly become the highest usage running back in the NFL, as the 33 touches he had against Dallas marked the fourth straight week where he topped the 27 touch mark. He's everything you want in a modern DFS back - he gets incredible volume, he's targeted in the passing game, and he gets the goal line carries. He's topped 25 FanDuel points in three of his last four games, and while Denver has solid defensive DVOA numbers this year, Vegas thinks the Vikings are going to wallop them by 10.5 points. That sounds like the perfect game script for Cook, especially since the Vikes are notoriously conservative with their leads. Cook gets a green light in all formats on FanDuel, though the price might be a little rich on DK.
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 17.84 DK - 19.65
Some people will be quick to pour dirt on Leonard Fournette after a disastrous week against Houston, but I think that's a pretty serious mistake. Yes, the game script literally could not have gone worse for Fournette. But did you know that he was coming off of 5 straight weeks with 26 or more touches? That there have only been two games all season where he's touched the ball fewer than 20 times? He's still one of the safest opportunity plays in the game, and now we're getting him at a discount. Vegas sees this as a close game, and Indy has been a slightly below average run defense this year if you look at their DVOA. This looks to be a perfect spot for a Fournette bounce back, and I'm a buyer at these prices in any format.
Look, I think we are going to end up prioritizing the quarterback and running back position in cash this week so if there’s a place to save it’s likely going to be wide receiver. After this, we’ll go through some of the mid-tier (and below) guys. But we have to stop and marvel in sheer wonder at what Thomas has done this year. The record for receptions in a season is Marvin Harrison with 143 in 2002. Right now, with 86 through nine games, Thomas is on pace for 152. He’s a high (the highest?) volume guy, averaging 11.4 targets per game, but the real stat is the efficiency. He’s converting 84% of his targets into receptions. In fact, it’s kind of a miracle (not the good kind) that considering the volume he only has four touchdowns on the season. That ranks him 17th among wide receiver and it probably about the only thing keeping him from a price in the Christian McCaffrey tier, which he’s already close to.
Opponent ATL
Proj Points FD - 16.06 DK - 18.66
We’ve been on the D.J. Moore wagon for multiple weeks and the target share has been as steady as they come. Since Week 6, Moore is a top-10 overall target wide receiver with 40 targets for 28 catches for 332 yards in that stretch. The issue has been the receiving touchdowns, 0 on the season, with Curtis Samuel and Christian McCaffrey soaking up that TD equity. But Moore has been a red zone target with two this past week and the lack of scores is actually what is keeping the prices down. Facing a putrid Falcons’ secondary has this another breakout spot for Moore and I suspect we see chalky ownership on him in cash games.
Opponent CAR
Proj Points FD - 10.44 DK - 12.41
Ridley was a popular cash game option on FanDuel this past week against the Saints and ultimately disappointed with just three catches for 59 yards. It doesn’t necessarily get easier this week against a strong Carolina secondary, but the price hasn’t moved at all either. The key for Ridley is that with Mohammed Sanu out of the picture, Ridley’s time on the field rose significantly this week, and he led the Falcons skill positions playing 89% of the offensive snaps. That hadn’t been the case with the Atlanta WR corps, but I do think it’s going to translate to usage in the offense here. If the theme is buying projected targets as cheaply as possible with the running back position as the priority then Ridley for sure fits the bill.
Opponent BUF
Proj Points FD - 11.29 DK - 13.14
Speaking of cheap targets, Parker led the Dolphins with 10 against the Colts in Week 10. The efficiency is always going to be an issue and he’s barely converted 50% of this targets this season, but with Preston Williams out of the mix Parker is the clear WR1 in this “offense”. He’s averaged 8.5 targets per game over the last four with right around 60 yards receiving per game. Those stats won’t blow you out of the water, but again we are going cheaper at this position to pay up for the big QBs and RBs in cash.
Olsen returned from his relative obscurity last week to haul in 8 catches on 10 targets from Kyle Allen, and he converted those catches into 98 yards. Given some of the names we've run out there at tight end this season, playing Olsen sort of seems like a breath of fresh air. Yes, there is some risk here. We generally don't want to overreact to one good week out of a guy who's otherwise been somewhat absent. But there are some great signs here. First of all, we know Olsen is capable of being a hugely targeted TE. Second, Allen is coming off not only his best week, but the week where he was trusted with the football the most - topping 40 attempts and 300 yards for the first time. His targets to Olsen were very effective, and I think the Panthers go back to the well this week.
Opponent HOU
Proj Points FD - 12.65 DK - 14.98
He's probably too expensive for cash games since Olsen is ultimately a very similar play, but there is definitely a case to be made for Andrews here. He drew another 8 targets last week, and found himself on the receiving end of two touch down catches in the process. And really, the "top end" of tight end has been pretty bad recently. Kittle and Hooper are banged up, Waller has had back to back bad weeks, and Ertz draws the Pats. Kelce, Everett, and Engram aren't on the main slate. That leaves us with precious few options to proceed with here, and Andrews might just be what safety looks like at the position this week.
Against the Pats? Against the Pats. Yes, the Patriots have had their moments this season, but their lack of skill position talent has certainly reared its head from time to time. They're now ranked dead average in offensive DVOA, and the Eagles have a top 10 defense this season. It's weird to challenge Tom Terrific like this, but the price on the Birds is just so outrageously low that it's looking kind of worth it.
Opponent CIN
Proj Points FD - 6.09 DK - 6.09
I'm not sure I want to pay all the way up for the Raiders on FanDuel, but on DraftKings it's looking pretty tempting. The Bengals have been awful offensively this season, and switching over to Ryan Finley didn't seem to matter much last week against Baltimore. Finley was running for his life out there, and while the Raiders can't boast the same defensive talent as the Ravens, you have to think some huge turnover games are possible given the lack of time Finley had in the pocket and what little he did when he did have the time.
Opponent WAS
Proj Points FD - 6.99 DK - 6.99
Opponent NYJ
Proj Points FD - 7.83 DK - 7.83
We've got a good old fashioned rock fight brewing in New York this week, with the two teams with the 2nd and 3rd worst offensive DVOAs in the league squaring off. This game has the lowest total on the slate, but both defenses are still somewhat affordable. The Jets in particular look like a juicy big tournament defense, to me.
So that's it! Are we geniuses? Totally stupid? Hop in our member's only chatroom by following the link below, and let us know!
image sources
Week 12 DraftKings and FanDuel cash game NFL plays.
DraftKings and FanDuel Week 11 cash game NFL plays
Week 10 NFL cash game picks for DraftKings and FanDuel
Daily Fantasy DraftKings and FanDuel NBA Picks & Projections Playing NBA DFS Nightly? Join one…
Week 9 NFL DFS plays for DraftKings and FanDuel
Packed slate of NBA action on FanDuel and DraftKings