Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic, center, attempts a shot as Portland Trail Blazers' Anfernee Simons (1) and Damian Lillard, right, defend during an NBA basketball game in Dallas, Sunday, Oct. 27, 2019. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
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It’s tough to trust on the Mavs in terms of minutes these days, except when it comes to Luka who’s making an early case to be in the MVP race. He’s nearly averaging a triple double with 27 points, 10 rebounds and nine assists on the season. And if anything, the scoring might be a little on the low side considering I thought we’d see some moderate gains in the three-point shooting this season (32%). But he’s been amazing and will now face a Knicks team that doesn’t know if it’s coming or going. Their rotations are all over the place, the team is a mess and the Mavs are -11 home favorites. Doncic is a tough fade on DraftKings at sub-$10K considering the way he’s scoring points across the fantasy line right now.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 54.66 DK - 56.22
Kyrie’s been nothing shot of masterful in his time with the Nets, putting it all on display in a way we really haven’t seen him sustain at any other point in his career. That’s because Brooklyn, for now, has unleashed Irving to do what he does best: stay on the ball a ton, take a lot of shots and control the pace of the offense. From a fantasy perspective, it’s paying massive dividends considering the dude is averaging close to 32 points per game along with six assists and five rebounds. These are all career highs and in his ninth season we are getting a taste of what happens when a team is truly turned over to this dude. He’ll face a Lillard/ McCollum backcourt that could struggle containing him and I think Irving is about as safe a cash game play as you can get at the point guard position on this slate.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 22.78 DK - 22.88
Ben Simmons is going to miss the next three games at least and a team already light on true ballhandlers will really need to find minutes for actual guys who can dribble constantly. Josh Richardson helps here so I don’t think we see a 1:1 swap for Neto’s minutes and Furkan Korkmaz did start the second half for the injured Simmons last game. But Neto still picked up 30 minutes last game when Simmons when down and scored 11 points with four assists and three steals. As a true punt play, this is a fine spot for Neto even if he didn’t get the start for the Sixers. He’d be the first guard in off the bench and the floor is high enough to consider at the minimums on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
With Kawhi Leonard exiting stage free agency, the Raptors have shortened up their rotations and are playing guys minutes unlike what we saw last year with this team. In fact, Kyle Lowry and VanVleet and number one and three in the league n terms of average minutes played per game so far this season. FVV Is shooting lights out from beyond the arc at 42% and has a 16 point, seven assist line to start the season. The price is up for sure, but you are getting him in a near dream matchup against the Pelicans who are running one of the fastest paces in the league with one of the worst defensive efficiencies. I like the DraftKings price a little more on VanVleet, but this SG position on FanDuel also isn’t all that robust.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 29.45 DK - 29.13
While I am decently high on Neto as a punt play in the absence of Ben Simmons, Josh Richardson might actually be the biggest beneficiary. He has worked, at times, as a primary ball handler and at least has that in his repertoire. It’s not exactly clear what the Sixers will do with their rotations, but J-Rich has a very high minutes floor in this game even if the matchup isn’t ideal. He’s gone 35+ in each of the last three, is versatile on both ends so he’s not a liability and I wouldn’t be shocked to see the assist numbers tick up in this one with a couple of days to prepare for a slightly new role.
Other Thoughts
If Bogdan Bogdanovic (FD $5100 DK $4500) gets the start for in the Kings in place of Bjelica then he makes a very good play on both sites in what should amount to an increase in minutes.
I really like the GPP upside on Caris Levert (FD $6700 DK $6400) if the minutes stick in the mid-30’s against the Blazers.
OG is doing his very best to get the folks in Toronto to forget they lost Kawhi Leonard in the offseason. Dude has done a little bit of everything for the Raptors, knocking down 3’s at a 50% clip, averaging 3+ blocks and steals combined and rebounding as well. This is something of a breakout season after he was forced to sit out last year’s playoffs with an appendix removal issue. But dude has balled and even with a significant price increase, he has a solid floor fantasy-wise because of how he contributes across the stat line. A pace up matchup against the Pelicans is a perfect scenario for him and I think he makes for a very good cash game play. In fact, stacking Raptors could make a lot of sense on Friday.
Other Thoughts
If Jeff Teague sits again then Jarrett Culver (FD $3800 DK $5000) instantly becomes a chalk play at this position. He was excellent last game and the price hasn’t moved much at FanDuel.
DeAndre Jordan is questionable for Friday’s game after turning his ankle on Monday against the Pelicans. Jarrett Allen had already been moved back into the starting role and that should be a swap that’s here to stay considering the massive difference in talent levels between the two Nets’ bigs at this point. Outside of Whiteside, the Blazers don’t have much in the way of size and Allen is coming off his best game of the season, an 18 points, 10 rebound line against New Orleans. At a thin power forward position on FanDuel, Allen feels on the safe side to hit his minutes floor and he’s a reasonable DraftKings play as well. Even if Jordan were to suit up for this game I’d feel comfortable running Allen in cash games.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 35.47 DK - 32.76
Holmes has played 30 or minutes in four of the last five games and averaged a solid 14 points and eight rebounds with 1.7 blocks. That’s about getting the job done at these prices and now has an excellent matchup against the Hawks who are without John Collins and still starting Alex Len at center. Holmes has a solid floor considering the defensive stats and he’s seen enough usage in this lineup to justify the prices. He’s long been a solid fantasy-points per minute guy and is finally getting almost rock-solid opportunity because of how bad a mess the Kings have been to start the season.
Other Thoughts
I think this is a buy low opportunity on Aaron Gordon (FD $6300 DK $6000). He’s shooting only 28% from three (35% last season) and the minutes have been a bit all over the place. But he draws a good matchup against a fast-paced Grizzlies team.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 57.08 DK - 57.82
These guys have played the last two slates together and that makes for some interesting decisions around the center position. Both have been elite to start the season and have seen the price, correctly, rise considerably. And when comparing them against each other, it gets tough to figure on how to roster. They are essentially the same prices on both FanDuel and DraftKings, both have great matchups and the minutes floors are as high as you’ll get on centers. Towns has a bit more scoring, but Drummond piles on the rebounds. Both contribute defensively in a big way and our projections, when it’s all said and done are remarkably similar. This boils down to a challenge play and it’s tough to figure you’re going wrong on either. It’s shaping up like a night to spend up at point guard and center. You won’t be able to play both these guys, but it’s a coin flip that looks good on both sides.
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 28.34 DK - 29.26
If you want to go cheaper, there’s a case to play Portis here if he’s once again in the starting lineup in place of Mitchell Robinson. The latter has already been ruled out for Friday and Portis has drawn the start at center in the past. Considering the Mavs do trend a little *smaller* across the board, this wouldn’t be a huge mismatch for Portis on the defensive end. Of course, it compromises the Knicks ability to actually win games, but that’s been a theme all season. I’m more into Portis’s FanDuel price but it would come at the expense of fading both the guys listed above.
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