Carolina Panthers' Christian McCaffrey (22) runs against the Dallas Cowboys during the second half of an NFL football game in Charlotte, N.C., Sunday, Sept. 9, 2018. (AP Photo/Jason E. Miczek)
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Opponent CIN
Proj Points FD - 26.93 DK - 27.19
Lamar Jackson’s 637 rushing yards are the 11-most in the league, which would be a nice calling card for some of the running backs out there. But then you get the part where he actually is able to throw the ball as well and it’s easy to see why this guy ranks second overall in DraftKings points per game this season. He’s fresh off a dismantling of the vaunted Patriots’ defense in which he led the Ravens to 37 points by rushing for 61 yards and two touchdowns and throwing for 163 yards (74% completion %) and another TD. He enters Week 10 as, far and away, the best QB option on the main slate. He’ll face a Cincinnati team ranked second to last in DVOA as a -10 road favorite. The biggest concern on Lamar here is the blowout if the Ravens get rolling downhill and he’s not asked to go above and beyond. It’s an expensive price considering that risk, but he’s also head and shoulders the best play at the position.
Opponent TB
Proj Points FD - 19.74 DK - 20.58
Murray is coming off some rough weeks having to face the 2nd and 6th ranked DVOA defenses in the 49ers and Saints. That led to some underwhelming fantasy performances for the rookie. Additionally, the game against the Giants had Chase Edmonds breaking off three, 20+ yard touchdown runs and Murray wasn’t asked to do much. This is a bounce-back spot against the Bucs who rank in the bottom third against the pass and are fresh off allowing a 5 TD passing game from Russell Wilson. I much prefer Jackson, but think Murray has a high floor in this game considering the Bucs have one of the worst pass defenses around. Given the savings you get and some nice expensive options at other positions, this is an ok way to take things if not playing Lamar.
Other thoughts
Ok, for starters, Lamar Jackson is far and away the best play at quarterback this week. The dip down from his safety to Murray is significant. There’s basically an elite QB tier of Jackson, Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson with everyone else on the (way) outside looking in. That being said, there are a couple of other quarterbacks to consider this week if you think the blowout risk on Jackson is too severe and Murray isn’t your cup of tea.
Matt Ryan and Jacoby Brissett are both in good spots relatively speaking. Ryan will likely need to throw a ton as a heavy underdog to the Saints. That’s been his story all season long, His 41 pass attempts per game are the most among active quarterbacks and that’s because the Falcons have played catchup all season. Dude still completes 71% of his passes and has 15 TDs, but eight interceptions.
Meanwhile, Brissett will, likely, get to face the disaster that is the Miami Dolphins defense. I say “likely” because Brissett left last game early with a knee injury and it’s unclear the severity. If he gets a full bill of health then he makes an interesting option.
Opponent GB
Proj Points FD - 24.8 DK - 26.52
I'm less than excited to share that we weren't on the Christian McCaffrey chalk last week, and we paid the ultimate price, with C-Mac dicing the previous vaunted Tennessee run defense for 166 yards and 3 touchdowns on 27 touches. You know the drill with McCaffrey by now - he's involved in every phase of the offense regardless of the game script, and in spite of opposing teams knowing that he is the first option, few have been able to stop it. Grabbing him against a league average Packers defense in a game with a relatively tight 4.5 point spread seems like a fantastic option this week.
Opponent NYJ
Proj Points FD - 19.84 DK - 21.91
If you would have told me that Saquon Barkley was going to be almost $2,000 cheaper than anyone on FanDuel and DraftKings, I probably would have told you to just lock him in. He's got the Jets this week, who have been okay against the run this year, but like McCaffrey, Barkley is a mainstay in all parts of the offense. The Giants are actually 2.5 point favorites here, so there are certainly no game-script related reservations. There are possibly some performance questions, though. Barkley has averaged just 3.2 yards per carry since returning from injury, though the eyeball test doesn't suggest the high ankle sprain is still bothering him. You also love to see how heavily involved he's been in the passing game, averaging 73 yards receiving over the last two weeks. I think we have some explosive games ahead, and I'm a buyer on these prices.
Opponent CLE
Proj Points FD - 16.14 DK - 17.08
Are the Bills finally ready to put the Frank Gore era behind him? If week 9 was any indication, they are. Singletary had 24 plays drawn up for him against the Redskins, and turned that into 140 yards and a touchdown. You could argue that it was the perfect match-up and game script, and I wouldn't disagree, but facing the 2-6 Browns on the road isn't exactly a scary situation. You're taking some risk on by playing Singletary, but the DraftKings pricing in particular is likely too attractive to ignore.
Keep an eye on Le'Veon Bell. He put up 121 yards from scrimmage and 8 receptions in the Miami game, but it looks like his knee is banged up. If he gets the green light this is another great match-up, and you have to think he'll get over this touchdown hump eventually if he's gobbling yards at these rates.
If James Conner misses another game, I think you have to consider Jaylen Samuels, even at rising prices. He caught 13 receptions last week, and even if Edmunds did more on more carries, you're essentially getting a great slot receiver in Samuels with some rushing upside.
Opponent NO
Proj Points FD - 17.85 DK - 21.44
The Falcons traded away Mohamed Sanu to the Patriots and that opened up the passing game some in Atlanta. In Week 8, directly following the trade, Jones had his highest volume game of the year with 12 targets for 10 catches and 152 yards. He’s once again had an up and down season and this matchup against the Saints isn’t exactly an easy one, but I do see Jones as one of the best volume receivers on this slate relative to price. On FanDuel he’s the sixth most expensive WR and on DraftKings he’s 4th. The projected shadow coverage from Marshon Lattimore isn’t ideal, but I still think we see Matt Ryan try to feed him as much as possible.
Opponent CAR
Proj Points FD - 15.89 DK - 19.03
Adams had sat since Week 4 after starting the season like gangbusters. But he finally suited back up in Week 9 in a loss against the Chargers. The good news is he saw a team-high 11 targets from Aaron Rodgers. The bad news is he turned it into only 7 catches and 41 yards. The target share is encouraging and it appears as if he’ll return to his typical, high-volume ways. The lack of separation is something of a concern considering this week he’ll face good Carolina Panthers cover corners in James Bradberry and Donte Jackson. That being said, for the projected targets, his DraftKings price is excellent coming sub-$7K. For the full PPR and another week of health and timing, this is a good spot for Adams to hit value.
Opponent GB
Proj Points FD - 14.33 DK - 16.55
We recommended D.J. Moore as a cash game play last week at low prices relative to the volume he stood to see in the passing game. He finished with 10 targets, good for seven catches and 101 yards through the air. The last four weeks he’s had targets of 8, 10, 9, 10 and has become the leading targeted WR in the Panthers’ passing attack. They don’t throw the ball a ton ad CmC eats up a lot of usage, but Moore is still coming way too cheap for the number of targets he’s seeing. Moore lines up primarily on the left side of the field and that should keep him away from Jamie Alexander and get more of Kevin King who projects much worse in coverage. Moore will have a lot of ownership in cash games this week considering he was a chalk play in Week 9.
Opponent TB
Proj Points FD - 12 DK - 14.44
Kirk struggled in Week 9 against the 49ers but he gets something of a pass there because the defensive matchup is among the worst in the league. That won’t be the case this time around against the Bucs. While Tampa Bay might be able to bottle up the run, they’ve allowed big games to opponents’ passing attacks and Kirk has 11 or more targets in three of his six games this season. That kind of projected target share works well for his pricing on both sites, but he’s especially a FanDuel consideration at less than $6000. Playing him and Moore there gives you the ability to save enough for Lamar Jackson and Chrisitan McCaffrey which should be something of the priority.
Opponent TEN
Proj Points FD - 12.99 DK - 15.65
We might get to play Travis Kelce in cash games, ya'll! Kelce has seen his price drift down toward the mid-$6,000 no man's land, where basically all of the playable tight ends are lurking right now. It makes sense if you're looking at the year to date fantasy points per game, but there's more to look at here. Kelce's price was pushing $8,000 last season, and was a second round pick in fantasy leagues. So what happened? In short, Mahomes got hurt. Kelce wasn't lighting the world on fire with Mahomes healthy, but he was averaging more than 90 receiving yards on 7 catches a game. He took a dip with Mahomes out, but rates to rocket back up in value with the reigning MVP returning this week. Buy low on Kelce, my friends, because this will likely be the last chance you get.
Opponent NYJ
Proj Points FD - 10.34 DK - 12.68
If you need some savings on DraftKings, Evan Engram is still chugging along and doing his thing. He converted 8 targets into 6 catches for 48 yards in week 9, and while that's nothing to write home about, it's all the opportunity we can hope for from a pretty terrible position. We know Engram will be involved in red zone packages as well, and scoring against the Jets should be easier than your average week. I'd really rather play Kelce here, but I can see the Engram case as well.
Other options: Austin Hooper keeps catching touchdowns. Mark Andrews has big time upside and could be low owned. Other than that the position is looking pretty rough.
Defense is pretty awkward this week, so let's talk through a few different angles of attack you could take. When we're looking to get value from the DST position, I highly recommend just seeing what kind of salary you have left over after prioritizing your plays at other positions. If you can afford it, getting a high floor defense like Baltimore, New Orleans, the Rams, or Indianapolis can't be too bad. All three have great match-ups with bad offenses, and shouldn't kill you. That said, you don't always have a ton of money left over.
Opponent GB
Proj Points FD - 5.79 DK - 5.79
Taking a defense against Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers? We must be crazy! Well, we might be. But the Panthers have been a damned good defense this year, and we're fresh off a week where Aaron Rodgers was looking sort of old and tired. The Panthers are a top 5 DVOA defense this year, and while you don't love the match-up you DO love the price, and at defense, sometimes that's almost all that matters.
Opponent BUF
Proj Points FD - 7.55 DK - 7.55
I don't trust Freddie Kitchens as far as I could throw him (which isn't very far, both due to his size and my strength), but this is another example of a team you can save on while having a reasonably high floor. Buffalo has the 8th worst offense this season (per DVOA), and the Bills have the lowest total on the slate of any team that isn't from Miami. If you're just looking to get away from a volatile position cheaply, this can't be too bad.
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