Kevin Harvick (4) drives out of Turn 4 during the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series auto race at Phoenix International Raceway, Sunday, Nov. 13, 2016, in Avondale, Ariz. (AP Photo/Ralph Freso)
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Martin Truex Jr. stayed red-hot in the Playoffs as he dominated(464 laps led) at Martinsville last weekend punching his ticket to Homestead with a shot at a second championship. This takes all the pressure off over the last two races in this round starting with a return trip to Texas this weekend for the AAA Texas 500. Outside Truex, no driver is safe with Denny Hamlin(+24), Kyle Busch(+17), and Joey Logano(+14) sitting on the plus side of the cutline with Kevin Harvick(-14), Ryan Blaney(-15), Kyle Larson(-24), and Chase Elliott(-44) with some ground to make up in the final two races.
This is not only the second trip to Texas in 2019 but also the sixth race here since the re-design that started in early 2017. Turns 1 & 2 were reduced from 24 to 20 degrees of banking and widened from 60 to 80 feet making both ends of the track unique and making the job of the crew chief a little more challenging. As with all intermediate tracks, dominator points will be big with multiple drivers leading 50+ laps in each of the last six races here and one driver leading 100+ in five of the last six. Looking at those drivers who led 100 or more laps(5), two of them ended up winning and another two ended up second in those races. Let's now look at some track history, track type history, current form and then dig into the picks.
Texas Motor Speedway - Fort Worth, TX
Track - 1.5 Mile Quad-Oval Intermediate
20° of Banking in Turns 1 & 2
24° of Banking in Turn 3 & 4
I mentioned above that Texas re-configured the track back in 2017 so I am going to have a closer look at the track history in that sample size. In those five races, no driver has even been close to Kevin Harvick who has won twice(2017 & 2018 playoff races), finished Top 5 four times, and has a ridiculous 3.2 average finish. After Harvick's dominance, Joey Logano(7.2 avg fin), Kurt Busch(8.4 avg fin), and Erik Jones(8.8 avg fin) fall in behind and are the only other driver with at least four Top 10 finishes in the five-race sample size.
Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Kyle Busch(12.4) and Denny Hamlin(18.6) haven't been as consistent as Truex or Busch but each won a race here since the re-configuration and each has led 100 laps as well. They are also tied for second among active drivers with three career wins apiece. From a consistency perspective, Hendrick teammates William Byron(10.7) and Chase Elliott(9.4) have been excellent and Jimmie Johnson has the other win and leads all drivers with seven in his Hall of Fame career.
Looking at the results from the previous nine races on intermediate tracks using the 2019 rules package, there is a group of drivers who have stood out among the rest. Not surprisingly, six of the Top 7 drivers in average finish at those races make up six of the eight remaining in the playoffs. Martin Truex Jr.(Las Vegas, Charlotte) and Denny Hamlin(Kansas, Texas) are the only two drivers with multiple wins on this setup and their teammates Kyle Busch and Erik Jones are two of just four drivers with six Top 10's in the nine races.
Joey Logano won the Spring Las Vegas race and has three Top 5's, five Top 10's and the second-best average finish(9.4) in the sample size. His teammate, Brad Keselowski, hasn't been as consistent(12.2 avg fin) but has a win(Kansas) and is one of just two drivers with five Top 5's in the nine races.
Martin Truex Jr. has been the class of the field in the Playoffs with three wins after visiting Victory Lane last week in Martinsville. Kevin Harvick has yet to win in the Playoffs but joins Truex as the only other driver with six Top 10's in the seven races and has the second-best average finish(7.0) as well. Denny Hamlin enters this week with some momentum with Top 5 finishes in four straight and five of the last six including a win at Kansas two weeks ago. Out of the Playoffs, William Byron has impressed lately with back to back Top 5 finishes at Martinsville and Kansas and has the 5th best average finish(12.9) in the Playoffs.
Kevin Harvick
He will be the chalk play of the week but tough to fade with his success here at Texas since the re-configuration. He has won twice, led a series-high 379 laps in those five race and has an incredible 3.2 average finish. He posted the 10th and 2nd fastest laps in Friday's practices and also posted the 2nd fastest 10-lap average in both sessions. I expect him to qualify top 5, have a shot a being a top dominator and grabbing his first win of the playoffs. He is an elite play in all formats.
Kurt Busch
Busch is likely to qualify Top 10 after posting Top 5 speeds in both practices inclouding the 4th fastest 10-lap average in the final session. Combine that with the fact he joins Harvick as the only other driver with a Top 5 in each race since the re-configuration and you have yourself a high-floor play in the sub $10K range on both sites.
Erik Jones
In GPP formats, I will have a lot of exposure to Jones in hopes that his terrible playoff form(one Top 10 in seven races) gives him an ownership discount. The good news is that he has been very good here at Texas with three straight Top 5's and four straight Top finishes. More good news as he posted the 5th and 9th fastest laps in practice and the 7th fastest 10-lap in the final session.
Below you will find a copy of my DFS NASCAR cheathsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, DraftKings points averages, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more.
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for five years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in NFL, MLB, NHL, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.
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