Brooklyn Nets guard Kyrie Irving reacts from the bench during the first half of an exhibition NBA basketball game against the Sesi/Franca Basketball Club, Friday, Oct. 4, 2019, in New York. (AP Photo/Mary Altaffer)
Welcome to my first article of the NBA season! I'm ecstatic to be back at it with DFSR and we have some great picks for you on this Saturday slate. The Joel Embiid-Karl-Anthony Towns fight has opened up a ton of value on this slate and that's going to be the focus of this article. With that in mind, let's start off with the leading scorer in the NBA.
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Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 51.26 DK - 52.55
It's hard to fade Irving the way he's playing right now and it really doesn't make any sense why he's below $10,000 on DraftKings. Not only is he currently the leading scorer in the NBA, he's also averaging 35.3 points, 6.0 rebounds, 6.3 assists and 1.5 steals for the season. That makes him one of the Top-5 fantasy producers in the NBA right now and it's no surprise when you see that he's got a 36 percent usage rate while averaging 25 shots per game. Facing Detroit is not worrisome either, as they'll be starting an undersized Tim Frazier at PG against him.
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 33.64 DK - 34.01
Rubio appears to be back to his triple-double ways and I'd argue that he should be $1,000 more on each site. So far this season, Rubio is averaging 11 points, 6.8 rebounds, 8.8 assists and 2.0 steals per game. That's way too much production from a player priced this cheaply and we love him in a matchup like this. Not only does Memphis allow the second-most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season, they also play at the fastest pace in the NBA as well.
Also Consider Jamal Murray against an aging D.J. Augustin.
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 36.89 DK - 38.54
With Giannis Antetokounmpo taking most of the usage in Milwaukee, Middleton is always undervalued. That's just the case here, with Middleton averaging 35.5 DK points per game this season. That's the player we've become accustomed to throughout his Bucks tenure and we love that he has at least 30 fantasy points in all four games played this season. Having a floor like that is critical and he should get extra run in this Eastern Conference Finals rematch against the rival Raptors.
Caris Levert FD - $6600 DK - $6100
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 33.12 DK - 33.55
All the talk in Brooklyn is about Irving's stellar play but LeVert hasn't been too shabby himself. In fact, LeVert is averaging 18.5 points, 4.3 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 1.3 steals per game. What makes that even more encouraging is the fact that he is third on the team with a 26 percent usage rate and handled the ball a ton throughout the Friday win over the Rockets. He finished that game with 25 points, four rebounds and four assists, which could happen again here against a subpar Detroit defense.
Also Consider Shai Gilgeous-Alexander against a Pelicans team who sits bottom-five in total defense.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 35.33 DK - 36.72
With Joel Embiid suspended for this game, look for Harris to have a monster night. Even with Embiid on the floor, Harris is still averaging 18.8 points and 9.0 rebounds en route to 37.5 DK points per game. Averages like those are extremely impressive with Embiid in the lineup and those numbers should skyrocket with him gone considering Embiid averages about 25 points and 12 rebounds a game while leading the team with a 32 percent usage rate. Getting to face Portland is a good matchup too, as their starting forwards consist of players like Rodney Hood and Anthony Toliver.
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 35.43 DK - 34.93
Oubre has been undervalued all season long. What makes that bizarre is the fact that he's been doing work for close to a full season now. Over his final 30 games of last season, Oubre averaged over 30 DK points per game since being traded from Washington. That's pretty close to what he's doing this season, with Oubre averaging 34 DK points per game this season. He gets most of that production through sheer hustle and that's bad news for a Grizzlies club who plays at the fastest pace in the league while sitting 26th in total defense.
Also Consider Giannis Antetokounmpo with his 70-point upside.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 34.8 DK - 34.04
With Embiid suspended, Horford is one of the best value plays on the board. He should slide right over to center and pick up a ton of usage in his absence. That was clear on Wednesday when Horford collected 12 points, 16 rebounds and four assists in the game where Embiid got ejected in the third quarter. He happens to be averaging 1.3 DK points per minute with Embiid off the floor too while posting a 22 percent usage rate. This is a guy who regularly averaged between 35-40 DK points for his career and that appears to be the floor with Embiid sitting this game out.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 26.31 DK - 25.81
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 23.36 DK - 23.2
We've talked a lot about the Embiid suspension but it's time to talk about the other end of that fight. What got Embiid suspended was a tussle with Karl-Anthony Towns and that opens up a ton of usage on Minnesota as well. While we're unclear who will start, we can assume that both of these guys will provide solid value. The reason for that is because Towns 58.3 DK points will be unoccupied which includes 17 shots and a 28 percent usage rate. That means both of these guys will have to step up and we'll bet on Vonleh being the main cog after posting some solid numbers in NY last season. In fact, Vonleh played about 25 minutes per game last year, averaging 8.4 points, 7.8 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 0.7 steals and 0.8 blocks per game. If he provides that sort of line in the 25 minutes that we project here, we'd be looking at 7-8X value.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 52.82 DK - 52.74
Drummond is in the midst of another monster game against the Bulls right now and it's truly special what this guy is doing. Posting a double-double in the first half of that Friday game shows why he's so good, with Drummond averaging 21 points and 17.4 rebounds per game so far this season. That doesn't even include his fantastic defensive numbers, which equates to Drummond providing more than 52 DK points per game. Having that 20-20 potential appears to be even more likely against a defense like this, with Brooklyn surrendering the most fantasy points in the league to opposing centers once again while sitting 27th in total defense.
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 35.04 DK - 34.48
Bryant had a breakout 2018-19 campaign and it appears to have carried over into this season. In fact, Bryant is averaging 14.5 points, 10.3 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 2.2 blocks per game this season. What I like is the fact that he's played at least 30 minutes in all four games, dropping at least 46 fantasy points in two of his last three outings. That becomes very enticing against a Minnesota defense who will be without its star center in Towns, matching Bryant up with undersized guys like Bell and Vonleh.
Also Consider Nikola Jokic against the Magic. While he's been struggling thus far, he has triple-double potential every time he steps on the floor.
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View Comments
Prices off for FanDuel. Middleton: $7600, not $7300...Horford $6900, not $6800...Drummond $10300, not $10000...Bryant $7700, not $7100. You guys in the market for a new editor? I could definitely use a new job! I’m serious too! Lol No knock on the writers.
Pretty sure its because they do these the day before. Hence the comment "Drummond is in the midst of another monster game against the bulls right now"